House Price Crash Discussion Thread

chucky

MiserlyMartin wrote: »

Yes, this is what people said to justify the crazy prices and large mortgages that they were saddling around their necks. 'Better buy now or you will miss the boat - never get on the ladder'. Well all these things were statements designed to prop up the pyramid selling scam that was the UK property market. Now its falling like a house of cards and its one boat I feel great for not sailing. I knew it was only a matter of time before it crashed but not many people would stake their money on it.

All those dinner parties/social gatherings I had to endure with people bragging about how much their house was 'worth' and the looks of disapproval because I said I was renting until the market corrects. Well now whos laughing eh?!¬

what a very strange post. typical of many that couldn't afford to buy at the time but now use the comment of forseeing all of the economic problems. did you also predict Lehmans falling? did you also predict the Libor lending freezing up? did you also predict the off-balance sheet carnage that the banks are suffering? what an economic genius you must be Martin.

beingjdc

chucky wrote: »

what a very strange post. typical of many that couldn't afford to buy at the time but now use the comment of forseeing all of the economic problems. did you also predict Lehmans falling? did you also predict the Libor lending freezing up? did you also predict the off-balance sheet carnage that the banks are suffering? what an economic genius you must be Martin.

I predicted two of those three things. I wasn't really paying attention to Lehman.

And I sold my property in the Summer of 2005.

MiserlyMartin

chucky wrote: »

what a very strange post. typical of many that couldn't afford to buy at the time ... what an economic genius you must be Martin.

Thanks. I don't like to brag but you did it for me Chucky.

Yes I did predict that credit would tighten, it was bound to. And its been obvious that the sub prime disaster would cause problems further afield as we have our own sub prime loans here called self cert mortgages. But I did not forsee it happening in quite this scale even though we have worse consumer debt than the rest of Europe.

Actually I could have afforded to buy at the peak but didn't see any point in buying an overpriced asset that would fall later. And in actual fact I sold to rent a while ago and put my money where my mouth was.

chucky

MiserlyMartin wrote: »

Thanks. I don't like to brag but you did it for me Chucky.

Yes I did predict that credit would tighten, it was bound to. And its been obvious that the sub prime disaster would cause problems further afield but I did not forsee it happening in quite this scale.

Actually I could have afforded to buy at the peak but didn't see any point in buying an overpriced asset that would fall later. And in actual fact I sold to rent a while ago and put my money where my mouth was.

good man -well done you. one thing if you don't like to brag why did you feel the need to let everyone know!? you'll be able to go to all the dinner parties now and brag away too and not feel inferior...

ps. can you give me the lottery numbers too?

skap7309

carlstubbs_123 wrote: »

ive heard a rumour that they could be falling by up to 50% in some areas. is this absalout nonsence?

If someone told you ten years ago house prices would rise 300%, yes, 300% you would can that absolute nonsense. However it happened. Therefore (and judging by the economic crisis) 50% falls are far more than a possibility.

mean_momma

beingjdc wrote: »

And I sold my property in the Summer of 2005.

Nice safe timing, selling in 2005 - but plenty continued to make money due to HPI right up to August 2007. Whether they 'predicted the rise and rise', or took a massive gamble and got lucky is another question.


Ref '90's slump: "Complacent is a huge understatement - prices were wibbling along the bottom for at least 5 years before they took off again..."

We can all be wise in hindsight.... wibbling along for 5 years could lead one to believe that the market was stable, and that the madness of the '80's boom could never be repeated.....(not how I felt at the time, but it is understandable)

neverdespairgirl

mean_momma wrote: »

Nice safe timing, selling in 2005 - but plenty continued to make money due to HPI right up to August 2007.

#

They only made money if they actually sold in August 2007.

mean_momma

neverdespairgirl wrote: »

#

They only made money if they actually sold in August 2007.

Exactly - and what a lot of money some of them made by selling at, or near, the peak, either by luck or design. I am thinking in particular of my previous flat, bought by a city boy from Lehman's and sold exactly at the peak for a silly inflated price (did he have an inkling?.....).

On the other hand, after August 2007, profits began to decline, and in some cases have degenerated into serious losses

Risky business indeed. I'll be happy when a home is a home and not a punt on the market.

greenwheels007

chucky wrote: »

what a very strange post. typical of many that couldn't afford to buy at the time but now use the comment of forseeing all of the economic problems.

What a strange post!
Typical of many who believed the hype about the ladder, let me guess, negative equity...?

Come on keep it nice and let the guy have his moment in the sun.

timberford

bobbybee2 wrote: »

I have a hypothetical scenario based loosely on the current market situation.

Assume you buy a house for £200000, it loses 15% in year 1 and 15% in year 2. At the end of year 2 your house is worth £144500. So you have lost £55500.

You don't actually 'lose' the £55,500 unless you literally sell your house for £144,500, pay off the additional £55,500 to get rid of your mortgage and then do nothing else.

Most people will buy another house, that has similarly lost in value.