House Price Crash Discussion Thread

Lotus-eater

Walter_J wrote: »

This 'stand-off' period may last a few months yet, but sooner or later the slide will begin, and continue for 4 or 5 years at least.

You think! You don't know.

Alot of people here seem to talk in absolutes. NO ONE knows what WILL happen. They might have a bloody good idea though.

IMHO we are in for some falls, past that I don't know, mass panic in the BTL market could occur, thats when the professional investors start rubbing their hands with glee.

MissMoneypenny

Lotus-eater wrote: »

IMHO we are in for some falls, past that I don't know, mass panic in the BTL market could occur, thats when the professional investors start rubbing their hands with glee.

I wonder how many of those that class themselves as "professional landlords" will stay in that game if the government makes our rental market laws more professional (like France and Germany).

dweeby

Walter_J wrote: »

Eventually though, someone has to sell. It might be because of a divorce, a relocation, or imminent repossession, but they have to sell so they reduce the price dramatically.

This one act then reduces the value of every other similar house in the surrounding area!

No it doesn't!

There have always been people who need to sell, and who take much less than the market rate. Sure the crash happens for them, but every other seller (in our area at least) just thank their lucky stars they're not in that position. Then they hang on in there, they certainly don't match the price of the lowest price house to have sold.

Pobby

Was driving around the city where I live this weekend.Suddenly there seems to be a lot of for sale boards around as well as to let.Not drawing any conclusions yet but I wonder.

brit1234

I think IO mortgages should have 50% deposits and not use equity in other properties. We have seen wide spread fraud using IO and no capital/virtually none and has led to a large scale housing bubble likely to crash with little risk to the individual apart from fictious money.

If people want to do this risky stuff they should take some of the risk themselves.

neverdespairgirl

wolvoman wrote: »

Do you have a link to that?
And are you talking about asking prices or selling prices?

Selling prices, according to the Land Registry.

http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/shared/spl/hi/in_depth/uk_house_prices/html/ag.stm

Mr._H_2

redmen9 wrote: »

Surely there can only be one outcome?

I've 'gambled' on a price crash by moving into rented accomodation. I have no idea when this might happen, or to what degree, but I am convinced that it will. As I say there's a huge market out there priced out, only by dropping prices are these people going to be able to afford to buy.

Or, most people will give up on the idea of property ownership and rent forever.

Or people will maintain the wish to purchase, but no external shocks cause a large number of people to have to move, so activity in the marketplace dwindles, and prices stagnate (i.e., price reductions in real-terms) for several years. With the base-rate dropping to 5.25%, the threat of the big "shock" that people on fixed-rate mortgages were facing has diminished.

How long will you wait for a property price crash before giving up and buying again? How long have you been waiting so far? Does the market have to crash or will price stagnation for several years suffice?

Vincenzo

Mr._H wrote: »

Or, most people will give up on the idea of property ownership and rent forever.

Or people will maintain the wish to purchase, but no external shocks cause a large number of people to have to move, so activity in the marketplace dwindles, and prices stagnate (i.e., price reductions in real-terms) for several years. With the base-rate dropping to 5.25%, the threat of the big "shock" that people on fixed-rate mortgages were facing has diminished.

How long will you wait for a property price crash before giving up and buying again? How long have you been waiting so far? Does the market have to crash or will price stagnation for several years suffice?

Exactly - as I a have always said. Better off IN a falling market , than OUT of a rising one! (provided you can keep up your repayments, of course!).

wolvoman

neverdespairgirl wrote: »

Selling prices, according to the Land Registry.

http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/shared/spl/hi/in_depth/uk_house_prices/html/ag.stm

Yes that's what the link says but the numbers don't make sense.

In Camden over the past quarter:
653 flats went up on average by 0.3% to £463,860 (which means they were £462,472)

53 terraced houses went down on avg by 4.6% to £1,089,039 from £1,141,550.

20 semi-detached houses went down by 0.6% to £1,861,300 from £1,872,535.

And 3 detached houses went down by 67% to £933,333 from £2,828,282


Therefore the total housing stock before was worth: £408.4m (approx)
It is now worth: £400.6m (approx)

So on 729 sales as the BBC site says the average price was: £560K
And is now: £549K (which agrees with the number on that link)

BUT I make that a drop of just under 2% for the quarter, not 9.7% as the site suggests.


And in my area of Bromley over the past quarter:
552 flats went down on average by 1.9% to £217,397 (which means they were £221,607)

406 terraced houses went up on avg by 2.1% to £274,624 from £268,975.

383 semi-detached houses went up by 3.1% to £345,682 from £335,288.

And 280 detached houses went down by 4.4% to £622,195 from £650,831


Therefore the total housing stock before was worth: £542.1m (approx)
It is now worth: £538.1m (approx)

So on 1621 sales as the BBC site says the average price was: £334K
And is now: £332K (which agrees with the number on that link)

BUT I make that a drop of 0.6% for the quarter, not 2.3% as the site suggests.

Where have the BBC got these numbers from???

Generali

wolvoman wrote: »

Yes that's what the link says but the numbers don't make sense.

In Camden over the past quarter:
653 flats went up on average by 0.3% to £463,860 (which means they were £462,472)

53 terraced houses went down on avg by 4.6% to £1,089,039 from £1,141,550.

20 semi-detached houses went down by 0.6% to £1,861,300 from £1,872,535.

And 3 detached houses went down by 67% to £933,333 from £2,828,282


Therefore the total housing stock before was worth: £408.4m (approx)
It is now worth: £400.6m (approx)

So on 729 sales as the BBC site says the average price was: £560K
And is now: £549K (which agrees with the number on that link)

BUT I make that a drop of just under 2% for the quarter, not 9.7% as the site suggests.


And in my area of Bromley over the past quarter:
552 flats went down on average by 1.9% to £217,397 (which means they were £221,607)

406 terraced houses went up on avg by 2.1% to £274,624 from £268,975.

383 semi-detached houses went up by 3.1% to £345,682 from £335,288.

And 280 detached houses went down by 4.4% to £622,195 from £650,831


Therefore the total housing stock before was worth: £542.1m (approx)
It is now worth: £538.1m (approx)

So on 1621 sales as the BBC site says the average price was: £334K
And is now: £332K (which agrees with the number on that link)

BUT I make that a drop of 0.6% for the quarter, not 2.3% as the site suggests.

Where have the BBC got these numbers from???

I think that the LR figures are mix adjusted in an attempt to compare like-with-like over different periods. That is they compensate for lots of flats in a block coming on the market at the same time for example - it's not necessarily useful to compare the price a studio flat sells for with the price a 4 bed detatched house goes for.