House Price Crash Discussion Thread

Generali

2 big differences between the housing market now and the early 90s:

- Welfare will no longer pay your mortgage interest as soon as you become unemployed
- BTL

Also, the government was running a huge budget surplus in 1989-90 as opposed to the collosal deficit today meaning less scope for 'pump priming' if you believe in that sort of thing (I'm largely unconvinced - most economists disagree with me).

adr0ck

also less houses now

compared to population

adr0ck

and less unemployment

boinging_2

This site is getting very repetitive now. There are those (Adr0ck) who will never believe that house prices are falling, those that believe we're all doomed (Squatnow) and a small few (Generali, codger, !!!!!!?) who stick to well thought out posts....

Can I filter threads to only see the reasoned people?

brit1234

Adr0ck You have to realise the crash doesn't need high unemployment and this socalled shortage of property (I don't believe there is a shortage personally).

The reason there will be a crash is because property is very overvalued due to unsustainable lending and fraud. This wasn't as prevelant duing the last crash and the credit crunch is the vehicle that will trigger it together will higher interest rates.

The credit crunch is likely to carry on for years and thus banks won;t lend to purchase properties at todays values especially on newbuilds. Even if owners refuse to lower their prices builders will have to as they have to pay staff and other costs. So if newbuilds and distressed sellers are selling at far cheaper values that banks will lend on then don't you think the other home owners with have to lower their prices to compete.

Any views Adr0ck?

adr0ck

boinging wrote: »

This site is getting very repetitive now. There are those (Adr0ck) who will never believe that house prices are falling, those that believe we're all doomed (Squatnow) and a small few (Generali, codger, !!!!!!?) who stick to well thought out posts....

Can I filter threads to only see the reasoned people?

ive posted loads of times that i believe prices are coming down

i just don't believe that we'll see 20%+ falls

but as i keep saying all my comments exclude flats

adr0ck

brit1234 wrote: »

Any views Adr0ck?

yes i agree with most of what you say

but i just think we'll see a slowing down of the market (with actual falls when comparing against inflation)

and big falls in flats which we have a big oversupply of (especially new builds)

subjecttocontract

Mervyn King sees a flat property market for the next 4 years .....which is better than a significant price drop.....

http://www.thisismoney.co.uk/mortgages/house-prices/article.html?in_article_id=430364&in_page_id=57&ct=5

adr0ck

boinging wrote: »

This site is getting very repetitive now. There are those (Adr0ck) who will never believe that house prices are falling, those that believe we're all doomed (Squatnow) and a small few (Generali, codger, !!!!!!?) who stick to well thought out posts....

Can I filter threads to only see the reasoned people?

apologies i thought this was an open forum where even people like me (ie different to you) are allowed to post.

i am obviously mistaken and now live in a dictatorship where only certain opinions are acceptable and open and honest debate is frowned upon by people who obviously think themselves superior to me.

I have been a very naughty boy and will immediately give myself up to the Internet police

ManAtHome

subjecttocontract wrote: »

Mervyn King sees a flat property market for the next 4 years .....which is better than a significant price drop.....

Yes, but Merv's an economist, not a crowd psycologist...

Warren Buffet was slagged off by many for avoiding the dot con - I was also a bit surprised that DelBoy+laptop with minimal sales and no profits was apparently "worth" as much as pokey pola, but the crowd still managed to lose a fair bit of cash.