Buy now or hold after Brexit?

Crashy_Time

glasgowdan wrote: »

So, when the housing market crashes, and suddenly there are 3x more buyers able to afford the same houses... what happens? No... demand pushes the offer prices up? That can't be?!

That`s right, it can`t be in an environment where you will pay more for loans.


https://savingschampion.co.uk/news/savings-news/finally-funding-lending-scheme-end/

steampowered

movilogo wrote: »

My crystal ball says, Brexit will cause house price crash max 10-20% (if at all it happens).

Brexit has already caused house prices to crash 10-20% since the referendum.

At least when you look at the real value of your house, i.e. against global assets and currencies.

But you don't feel it immediately because the value of the pound has also dropped by that amount.

If Brexit turns out to be worse than expected, I would expect the pound to drop yet further. But this wouldn't have a particular impact on house prices if you are looking at them from the perspective of a price in £.

Crashy_Time

steampowered wrote: »

Brexit has already caused house prices to crash 10-20% since the referendum.

At least when you look at the real value of your house, i.e. against global assets and currencies.

But you don't feel it immediately because the value of the pound has also dropped by that amount.

If Brexit turns out to be worse than expected, I would expect the pound to drop yet further. But this wouldn't have a particular impact on house prices if you are looking at them from the perspective of a price in £.

Yes, but most people borrow the pounds to buy houses, therefore the cost of borrowing is critical for prices......

Crashy_Time

cloo wrote: »

IMO, 'waiting for the market to fall' is always a bad idea. If it were that simple that the market fell and suddenly there were lots of cheap homes available, we'd never have to worry about crashes!

What usually happens is that, certainly in popular areas, homes don't fall from an unaffordable bracket to an affordable one, fewer are available and mortgages may be harder to come by.

Brexit is awful, but I don't think it guarantees a crash - stagnation is looking most likely. So maybe you'll be able to get a lower offer accepted afterwards, but maybe not.

The problem is though when you take a massive loan you can`t really afford, at the lowest interest rates in history, THEN the market crashes :rotfl: that is something to worry about IMO. I don`t believe the property market really does "stagnation", there has been a massive amount of central bank support to keep it going, when that support is withdrawn, then it crashes.

markin

Crashy_Time wrote: »

The problem is though when you take a massive loan you can`t really afford, at the lowest interest rates in history, THEN the market crashes :rotfl: that is something to worry about IMO. I don`t believe the property market really does "stagnation", there has been a massive amount of central bank support to keep it going, when that support is withdrawn, then it crashes.

Well most are on fixed rate and renew at the end of term arn't they? Any stats available?

And anyone else should not have over borrowed if they can't afford the rise stress test.

Davesnave

markin wrote: »

Stuff.

Why are you digging up ancient threads by this John Lock fantasist character and wasting MSE's front page space for them?

Crashy_Time

markin wrote: »

Well most are on fixed rate and renew at the end of term arn't they? Any stats available?

And anyone else should not have over borrowed if they can't afford the rise stress test.

The whole economy in recent years (many years) has been based on over-borrowing, mortgages and plastic, that is what keeps it all rolling. Any severe shock, Brexit and it`s fallout is only one of many possibles, could see a lot of people in trouble.

Finchy2018

We've just bought. We are paying £250 less a month for a larger property. Don't plan to move for a long time/ever. Granted, we won't have kids so won't need a bigger house. We plan to just knuckle down and get the mortgage paid. Brexit has made no difference to our decision to buy.

jay213

I think there is more chance of price drops than price increases. I would say property is currently just about affordable with government schemes & the low interest rates that have been propping up prices for over a decade.

It's not like London or the SE is going to double in price anytime soon. They'll likely stagnate, at most increase by 5-10% with concentrated government effort and assistance from the bank. Much better odds of them going down by a bigger percentage then them going up IMO.

I guess help to buy has helped people take on bigger debts and prop up house builders such as Persimmon who are doing quite well from it with pre-tax profits of £1.1bn last year.

New Slaves.

I_think_not_baby_puppy

Just sold two flats in Edinburgh. Both under offer in less than 2 weeks. Both sold for over valuation. Prices substantially up from when I bought them in 2014 and 2016. One snapped up by London based investor and the other a cash buyer/investor from Scotland.

Serious lack of houses to buy. Anything good being snapped up. Sellers market here.