Buy now or hold after Brexit?

Crashy_Time

buggy_boy wrote: »

Its a gamble, how much rent will you pay over the 2 years.. Yes house prices could go down, but they could also go up.. Im not saying go for it but do your sums, its unlikely Brexit will have too much effect next year as we are likely not to actually get out of single market etc till 2021. Thats a lot of rent...

And a lot of mortgage interest when rates start rising, and negative equity if the market starts crashing

steampowered

It is a bit ridiculous to hold off a house purchase for this reason.

There is always going to be the possibility of house prices going up or down in the future.

It isn't obvious to me that Brexit would impact house prices. It is more likely to affect the exchange rate, and houses in the UK are a pure GBP denominated asset. Much of the impact of Brexit has already been factored into the exchange rate (i.e. the pound has dropped by 15% or so since the Brexit vote).

thatguyoverthere

What can be said for certain at the moment is that a big slow down in the construction sector is starting up.
This should lead to a shortage in housing that is enough to counteract much of the negative economic effects of brexit.
Thus it seems likely that house prices at least won't be impacted too much.

brit1234

House prices are falling in many areas of country irrespective of Brexit. It started with stamp duty changes hitting prime London and rippling out. Landlords tax changes are starting to have a big effect with landlords selling up and diminishing profits.

I think another credit crunch will cause next house price crash, debt levels are back up to 2007 levels. Look East to China where the smart money says the downturn will begin, brexit just adds to it but may be sorted in time.

buggy_boy

Crashy_Time wrote: »

And a lot of mortgage interest when rates start rising, and negative equity if the market starts crashing

Bet it would take a lot of rises to cover the rent on a similar property.

At 0.25% a rise thats only just over £20 a month plus if you lock in for a long term fixed rate mortgage thats not as much of a problem... I would always recommend not stretching yourself so much your on the limit, make sure you can repay a couple of hundred a month on top of mortgage payments. Use the money to pay down the mortgage if and when you can, if rates go up it just means you pay slightly less of the mortgage off.

Its all about planning, well you can either do that or do what Crashy does and say for the last how many years is it now that prices are going to crash and be stuck in a bedsit in Glasgow being angry at the world

buggy_boy

brit1234 wrote: »

House prices are falling in many areas of country irrespective of Brexit. It started with stamp duty changes hitting prime London and rippling out. Landlords tax changes are starting to have a big effect with landlords selling up and diminishing profits.

I think another credit crunch will cause next house price crash, debt levels are back up to 2007 levels. Look East to China where the smart money says the downturn will begin, brexit just adds to it but may be sorted in time.

Actually land registry show house prices are rising in pretty much all areas apart from London... Landlords are selling but actually because they are selling in a slow steady stream its having little effect on the market.

Yes a credit crunch could cause the next house price crash, along with a whole host of other possibilities, or prices could rally back up or they could stay stagnant... Show me someone who knows for certain what house prices will do and ill show you liar.

Badegg

any indication when most multiple BTL landlords will start consolidating? presumably earlier than 2020? looking at <400k priced 2bed room (purpose built block rather than victorian conversion) @ a apartments in SE london (60-70% ltv) and wondering whether now is good time. no rush (can live in family home rent free & focus on < deposit and career) but mainly thinking of grabbing a spot in advance of primary since have no idea how big / small catchment areas will get...theres always potential to move back into family home and let out flat on a consent to let basis so not too concerned from that point of view...just would be killer to buy now and then miss out on being able to buy it in 2-3 years at 300 or so. according to various databases a particular flat im looking at (400k) - 2 bed flats were selling for ~ 280 mid 2013 with 1beds going for 290 mid 2015....very few other sales.

Tunstallstoven

Totally agree with those who say to look at the rent situation. You do not say what you will do for those 5 years, so that info would be helpful to add. And if it is renting, then I really can't see it being a good choice.

Would also help to know what price bracket you are in. If way up high, money lost on rent will be less significant I guess; depending of course on what you are happy to rent.

Too many variables and not enough info, so very difficult to advice. Although generally speaking, for me it wold not be a good idea.

kingstreet

Crashy_Time wrote: »

Read as far as that and knew it was a wind up :rotfl:

IMHO two 0.25% rises from here and no more in the next two years or more...

Will have very little impact on new business mortgage rates, perhaps 2.5% for an average two year fix and 3.0% for an average five year.

kingstreet

AdrianC wrote: »

The only effect Brexit will have on non-EU migration is that there may be 27 more countries that count towards it. The UK government has always had 100% control over non-EU migration.

Quite. We've seen no inclination on the part of Government to pander to those wanting reduced immigration in the sector where Government has control, so unlikely to see any reduction in the future. PLUS we'll have EU immigration which we do control.

Net result 200,000 or more each year.