Silly question time: one investment to buy NOW

Alexland

grey_gym_sock wrote: »

i do also wonder whether scaling back the US allocation was such a good idea after all. but i reckon that, even if it won't do much good, it won't do much harm, either, so (in my real portfolio) i stick with it. in investing, changes of strategy should always be minimized.

Vanguard's latest market outlook (bottom of page 24 below) is forecasting that US equities will return around 3% less per year than non-US equities over the next 10 years:

https://institutional.vanguard.com/VGApp/iip/site/institutional/researchcommentary/article/InvRes2018EcoMktSummary

I found coastline's reassuring forward P/E graphs for the S&P500 interesting yesterday but the Shiller CAPE is a much more reliable tool. The US is looking expensive and that is likely to harm future returns.

Alex

AlanP_2

Bitcoin - obviously

aroominyork

Come on guys. Post #18 was funny. Can I please have some ticks!

grey_gym_sock

Alexland wrote: »

Vanguard's latest market outlook (bottom of page 24 below) is forecasting that US equities will return around 3% less per year than non-US equities over the next 10 years:

https://institutional.vanguard.com/VGApp/iip/site/institutional/researchcommentary/article/InvRes2018EcoMktSummary

I found coastline's reassuring forward P/E graphs for the S&P500 interesting yesterday but the Shiller CAPE is a much more reliable tool. The US is looking expensive and that is likely to harm future returns.

http://www.etf.com/sections/index-investor-corner/swedroe-seeing-valuations-clearly?nopaging=1 is a good summary of reasons why the shiller CAPE isn't quite as scarily high as it might appear.

though it does agree with the idea that returns are likely to be higher for shares outside the US.

i suppose an alternative kind of single ETF to buy could be 1 covering developed markets ex-US. e.g. vanguard (in the US) have 1 for that (US ticker: VEA).

is that a better option than VEVE? 0% US or 57% US?

this is rather arbitrary, of course. my preferred answer is to scale back the US allocation, but not all the way to 0%.

grey_gym_sock

AlanP wrote: »

Bitcoin - obviously

but can you get your purchase recorded in the blockchain within 10 minutes?

aroominyork

grey_gym_sock wrote: »

i think VEVE is still the least bad choice for me, within these arbitrary rules.

grey_gym_sock wrote: »

this is rather arbitrary, of course. my preferred answer is to scale back the US allocation, but not all the way to 0%.

Stop it with the arbitrary! This is mind-focusing investing.

Thrugelmir

Alexland wrote: »

The US is looking expensive and that is likely to harm future returns.

How long can before the dominance of the US IT giants monopolies get broken?

Asked rhetorically........

Alexland

grey_gym_sock wrote: »

i suppose an alternative kind of single ETF to buy could be 1 covering developed markets ex-US. e.g. vanguard (in the US) have 1 for that (US ticker: VEA).

is that a better option than VEVE? 0% US or 57% US?

this is rather arbitrary, of course. my preferred answer is to scale back the US allocation, but not all the way to 0%.

Agreed which for a single holding solution for 10 years would lead me to something like the L&G MI series at circa 30% US but funds are not allowed in this thread.

Alex

aroominyork

Alexland wrote: »

Agreed which for a single holding solution for 10 years would lead me to something like the L&G MI series at circa 30% US but funds are not allowed in this thread.

To justify the rule, it's because it risked becoming another VLS thread. So, onwards...