Premium Bonds

nigecooper

Martin keeps saying that your chance of winning a prize with Premium Bonds in a year is zero if you only have £1000. I understand his argument about the median win but it is misleading. A more accurate description would be to say that, if you have £1000 of bonds, you should only expect to win once every two years with average luck. Equally, holding £1, you would expect to win once every 2000 years!

Shashy

I've had £4k in since January 2017 and haven't won a penny, so I'd say Martin is spot on.

Superscrooge

nigecooper wrote: »

Martin keeps saying that your chance of winning a prize with Premium Bonds in a year is zero if you only have £1000.

Can you give any evidence to back up that statement because I don't recall Martin EVER saying that?

What he explained on his recent TV prog was that if you have £1,000 in premium bonds the most likely outcome is that in a typical year you win nothing. That is a lot different from saying you have a zero chance of winning.

It's possible to win £1million with just £1 in premium bonds. Unlikely, but possible

worldtraveller

I've had a £1 bond since 1957 and I've never won anything!

Alexland

I had £8k around 10-15 years ago and won around £250 within a few months. I considered that a good return which was unlikely to be beaten so sold up immediately and never bought any more. My little son has some and is unlikely to win anything.

Gers

worldtraveller wrote: »

I've had a £1 bond since 1957 and I've never won anything!

I was given £2.00 worth in 1985 and also won nothing.

eskbanker

Superscrooge wrote: »

What he explained on his recent TV prog was that if you have £1,000 in premium bonds the most likely outcome is that in a typical year you win nothing. That is a lot different from saying you have a zero chance of winning.

It's also expressed in similar terms in the very first line of the article on here:

Line up everyone with £1,000 worth of Premium Bonds in order of their year's winnings, and the person halfway along would have won… not a penny! In fact, you'd need to walk past almost two-thirds of the line until you hit the first £25 winner.

What are the odds that a new Premium Bonds thread will bring out a similarly lengthy line of people who have no idea of the basic concepts of statistics and probability?

ossie48

To be fair the opening page of the Premium Bonds website on NS&I does state

Odds of winning for each £1 Bond number
24,500 to 1


I've had £500 from £30K over 10 months...everyone else will have something different.

ValiantSon

Premium bonds are one of my pet hates.

I honestly do not understand why most people would ever bother with them. They are suitable for people looking to hold cash who have maxed out available interest bearing accounts paying even a modicum of interest. In all other situations it is a gamble - not with the stake, but with the possible interest.

I do have a few, but I'm not responsible for buying them. My grandparents and parents bought them when I was a child. In c.35-40 years I have won twice - £25 each time. I'd cash them in if I had any of the paperwork.

Alexland

ValiantSon wrote: »

I do have a few, but I'm not responsible for buying them. My grandparents and parents bought them when I was a child. In c.35-40 years I have won twice - £25 each time. I'd cash them in if I had any of the paperwork.

If they are in your name then NS&I should be able to find them if you enquire? It's at least worth ensuring they have your latest address to send any prizes, etc.

My son's, which are a regular gift from my parents, will probably be used to pay for driving lessons when he is one enough as I don't want to encourage him to keep them as long term assets.

Alex

ValiantSon

Alexland wrote: »

If they are in your name then NS&I should be able to find them if you enquire? It's at least worth ensuring they have your latest address to send any prizes, etc.

My son's, which are a regular gift from my parents, will probably be used to pay for driving lessons when he is one enough as I don't want to encourage him to keep them as long term assets.

Alex

They've still got my parents' address (they live in the same house I grew up in).

I did contact them a few years ago about an NS&I savings account I had from when I was a child. I got them to change my address on that and then I closed it. They said they wouldn't change my address on the premium bonds, however. Oh well.