Timing the market

bcfclee27

Over the next week or so I will be investing in VLS and HSBC.

However many predicting a crash is on the way.

I know the saying it's not timing the market but time in the market.

Is it worth holding off 12 months or is it literally a case of nobody knows when the crash is coming might be 4 months might be 4 years in which case I may well have missed out of 4 years growth.

Kinda answered my own question but as a newbie investor just wondered from more experienced investors would you hold off a bit or just dive in.

Thanks

Fatbritabroad

Assuming you are only putting money in that you won't need for ten years the putting it in as soon as possible is the best bet. They were saying markets were toppy 3 years ago. I'm up 4500 on a 21k investment which I wouldn't have had if I'd have read the predictions. It will probably drop 20% tomorrow but it doesn't matter I'm not taking any out for years

bcfclee27

Fatbritabroad wrote: »

Assuming you are only putting money in that you won't need for ten years the putting it in as soon as possible is the best bet. They were saying markets were toppy 3 years ago. I'm up 4500 on a 21k investment which I wouldn't have had if I'd have read the predictions. It will probably drop 20% tomorrow but it doesn't matter I'm not taking any out for years

Thanks for the reply, yes will be at least 10 years but could be as long as 25 years.

Definitely in it for the long haul.

Alexland

Invest in line with your volatility tollerence using shares, bonds and some cash (incase both shares and bonds drop). Then if it gets bad enough (this week was not too bad) you can start moving cash in from the sidelines and increasing your shares percentage to give a quicker recovery.

Others will say just leave it which I mostly agree with as strategic asset allocation for the majority of the value but some tactical asset allocation for a small proportion may be beneficial. Even if just leaving it then some cash boosts returns through the magic of rebalancing.

Alex

Glen_Clark

bcfclee27 wrote: »

Over the next week or so I will be investing in VLS and HSBC.

However many predicting a crash is on the way.

I know the saying it's not timing the market but time in the market.

Is it worth holding off 12 months or is it literally a case of nobody knows when the crash is coming might be 4 months might be 4 years in which case I may well have missed out of 4 years growth.

Kinda answered my own question but as a newbie investor just wondered from more experienced investors would you hold off a bit or just dive in.

Thanks

If you put it all in just before the next crash we will all have lost the same, But you will probably feel worse than those of us who have been in it for years.
Only if you can handle that, and not panic and draw it all out before the next recovery, should you put it all in at once.

economic

Glen_Clark wrote: »

If you put it all in just before the next crash we will all have lost the same, But you will probably feel worse than those of us who have been in it for years.
Only if you can handle that, and not panic and draw it all out before the next recovery, should you put it all in at once.

Not really. Those who had been invested had made gains so would probably have reduced gains. The new investor would be the loser.

Bravepants

Depending on how much you have to invest you could drip feed monthly and take advantage of pound cost averaging. This means that you buy fewer units when the price is higher, and more units when the price is lower.

Audaxer

The values of the funds have been falling since mid January, but they may well start to rise again or it could be the start of a bigger fall. It is tempting to wait and see what happens, but I wouldn't leave it 12 months. If you are concerned you could invest half the amount now, and drip feed the rest in over the next 12 months.

ossie48

I'm new to this as well although I've had 4/5 years or so of creaming every higher interest current account I could.

On Monday I put this years ISA allowance (£20k) into a VLS60.. Today its worth £19740.14 which is mildly amusing but of absolutely no consequence as its a ten year investment at the minimum.

For me the most important thing was making the first step onto the ladder and then taking things from there, getting used to the Vanguard platform and continued research on here.

Prism

ossie48 wrote: »

On Monday I put this years ISA allowance (£20k) into a VLS60.. Today its worth £19740.14 which is mildly amusing but of absolutely no consequence as its a ten year investment at the minimum.

Yeah its been a pretty bad week with a steadily increasing pound and then a couple of significant drops in the US stock market. Hopefully we will get some recovery by tuesday but in the end it doesn't matter in the long term

System

There seems to be a common view that dips in the market do not matter in the long run, but if the market drops 10% tomorrow then I can buy 11% more shares tomorrow than today and I will will have 11% more shares in 1,5, 10, 25, 50 years (and will receive 11% more dividend income).