Timing the market

BananaRepublic

talexuser wrote: »

Basically agree but more interested in the Fed and what happens as Trump stokes up a boom that starts inflation - but again inflation is a way out of debt so may be wanted.

Quite. Although we are well into a bull market, Trump’s tax cuts may well allow a few more years of growth before the inevitable crash. Then there is Brexit which will hit us, and perhaps Europe albeit less so I imagine.

talexuser

Somehow, for a man who has filed for bankruptcy six times on various ventures, I don't think Trump can even manage the forward thinking to plan inflating away the debt.

Shashy

Can I quickly say, bcfclee27, that it's been refreshing to see you 'ask, absorb, learn, repeat' over the past few weeks, after arriving here with relatively little understanding and knowledge.

It can be infuriating to see members join the forums and either ignore advice or decide they know better - so nice one.

...and good luck with your investments!

Glen_Clark

talexuser wrote: »

Basically agree but more interested in the Fed and what happens as Trump stokes up a boom that starts inflation - but again inflation is a way out of debt so may be wanted.

Well yes Trump is doing the same as Britain - borrowing to cut taxes for the better off. Whilst using stealth taxes like inflation to tax people who don't realise how they are being cheated by the system. So as Trump is a big borrower I expect him to want interest rates below inflation, same as UK.

Alexland

Alexland wrote: »

Invest in line with your volatility tollerence using shares, bonds and some cash (incase both shares and bonds drop). Then if it gets bad enough (this week was not too bad) you can start moving cash in from the sidelines and increasing your shares percentage to give a quicker recovery.

Others will say just leave it which I mostly agree with as strategic asset allocation for the majority of the value but some tactical asset allocation for a small proportion may be beneficial. Even if just leaving it then some cash boosts returns through the magic of rebalancing.

Market is starting to look a bit more attractive so just reduced my cash from 10% down to 9%. Still plenty left incase something unexpectedly bad happens.

Alex

bcfclee27

Shashy wrote: »

Can I quickly say, bcfclee27, that it's been refreshing to see you 'ask, absorb, learn, repeat' over the past few weeks, after arriving here with relatively little understanding and knowledge.

It can be infuriating to see members join the forums and either ignore advice or decide they know better - so nice one.

...and good luck with your investments!

Thanks Shashy, I'm learning very very slowly but really enjoy it as well. You lot on here are phenomenal, very welcoming and helpful and always willing to offer advice no matter how stupid the question.

In my case I see investing as a massive opportunity but also something I need to really research before I actually invest in the funds I choose. Once I've done that I can calm down and leave them to do their thing

bcfclee27

Alexland wrote: »

Market is starting to look a bit more attractive so just reduced my cash from 10% down to 9%. Still plenty left incase something unexpectedly bad happens.

Alex

Just looked and the funds I'm looking at (HSBC & VLS) have fallen again, is this what you mean by attractive as in buying more when they're falling etc.
Or have I read the markets wrong and things have gone up in price ?

Alexland

bcfclee27 wrote: »

Just looked and the funds I'm looking at (HSBC & VLS) have fallen again, is this what you mean by attractive as in buying more when they're falling etc. Or have I read the markets wrong and things have gone up in price ?

You are reading the markets correctly we are suffering a small blip on the journey. In the long term it doesn't matter but as markets go down then there is a bit less probability of further downside so it may make sense to take tactical manouvers to start increasing exposure to shares.

I am not going to try and guess where the top or bottom of the market may be. Nobody knows.

bcfclee27

Alexland wrote: »

You are reading the markets correctly we are suffering a small blip on the journey. In the long term it doesn't matter but as markets go down then there is a bit less probability of further downside so it may make sense to take tactical manouvers to start increasing exposure to shares.

I am not going to try and guess where the top of bottom of the market may be. Nobody knows.

No that makes sense Alex, just wanted to check I was reading things correctly.

Filo25

Interesting day on the US markets, really getting pounded at present, it will be interesting to see if it can pull back any of this towards the close.

Not even really driven by any news today, bonds haven't been selling off.