Bit coin tracker>>>any good?

grey_gym_sock

funnymonkey wrote: »

Bitcoin literally halved over the last month....seems like a good time to buy????

no: not necessarily.

bitcoin has fallen by comparable percentages before, several times, and than gone on to reach new highs. so will that happen again, starting from here? it is surely possible. i don't believe anybody can say for sure that it won't.

but we can be confident that it won't go for ever breaking new highs like that. because the rate of return it's been achieving is far greater than most other assets can achieve. if it kept going like this for long enough, the total bitcoins in the world would be worth more than the total gold in the world - which seems unlikely to me (though i can't totally rule it out). and if it kept going for longer, bitcoins would be worth more than all other assets in the world, of all kinds. i think we can rule out the latter.

but what will happen when the pattern of price rises breaks down? since 50% falls are almost normal, a far larger fall will be needed to break confidence in the bitcoin bull market. (as your post illustrates.) it might take a 95% fall, or 99%, or more.

perhaps we've already seen the peak, and the only way is a lot further down. or perhaps we'll see a new high before that happens. IMHO, both of those are perfectly plausible. and i don't think anybody knows for sure which will be the case. because there is a chaotic element in markets.

so basically, it's a complete gamble. if that's what you want, fine. (other forms of gambling are available. e.g. i believe you get relatively good odds by betting on a single spin of a roulette wheel in a casino - not by repeatedly betting the same money on more than 1 spin.)