The economics of BitCoin

RandomDaveKingOfTheLand

chucknorris wrote: »

EDIT: It might well go up 2,000% by 2021 but the probability of that event would be far more remote than 50%, by guesstimate would be far less than 1%. If the odds were evens that it went up by 2,000%, the odds for it going up by 100% would be something in the order of 1/20 (over 95%)! Don't you think that is tad over optimistic?

No i dont think its that optimistic, sticking with 50% chance, people were totally shocked when we hit $1, i can link you forum posts for that. Many big players who have power in the world are in pushing the crypto agenda now unlike in the early days. Still many people to get involved yet also.

Would you have ever thought 0 to 20k was possible? 20k to 200k is easier vs 0 to 20k, if nothing else you must agree with that?

RandomDaveKingOfTheLand

Anyhow folks im leaving this account now - just made it to talk bitcoin and wanted to remain anon. I do appreciate the points will consider them ta. I'll be back in 2021 though haha.

chucknorris

RandomDaveKingOfTheLand wrote: »

No i dont think its that optimistic, sticking with 50% chance, people were totally shocked when we hit $1, i can link you forum posts for that. Many big players who have power in the world are in pushing the crypto agenda now unlike in the early days. Still many people to get involved yet also.

Would you have ever thought 0 to 20k was possible? 20k to 200k is easier vs 0 to 20k, if nothing else you must agree with that?

You obviously do not understand probability, I'm wasting my time.

RandomDaveKingOfTheLand

chucknorris wrote: »

You obviously do not understand probability, I'm wasting my time.

Under 1% we go 20x by 2021? there must be other math models to apply in conjunction, that is just wrong.

Anyway look, i am going now until 2021, i did diversify myself so im financially cool either way.

GreatApe

RandomDaveKingOfTheLand wrote: »

Ok so its a gambling chip but if it holds steady at a few hundred billion marketcap for many years doesn't it then become another legit store of value? then more money comes in because of a new use case? and off we go again up ?

While I think the prices will go up and down up and down the overall net position will be negative.

With literally $billions that need to be spent on hardware and electricity and rent for warehouses the net useful created wealth will be negative.

That is to say think of it like going to a casino. The house always wins. With bitcoins the miners and hardware suppliers and coal miners always win

chucknorris

RandomDaveKingOfTheLand wrote: »

Under 1% we go 20x by 2021? there must be other math models to apply in conjunction, that is just wrong.

Anyway look, i am going now until 2021, i did diversify myself so im financially cool either way.

Yes it would be over 100/1 that it rises 20 fold in 3 years. I somehow doubt you have much of an insight into probability. You said bitcoin had a 50% to fall to zero and a 50% chance to rise to 2,000, can't you see how ridiculous that is? It isn't heads or tails (one or the other). It means that you think that there is no chance at all of Bitcoin being somewhere between falling 99% and rising less than 2,000%.

chucknorris

GreatApe wrote: »

While I think the prices will go up and down up and down the overall net position will be negative.

With literally $billions that need to be spent on hardware and electricity and rent for warehouses the net useful created wealth will be negative.

That is to say think of it like going to a casino. The house always wins. With bitcoins the miners and hardware suppliers and coal miners always win

When my wife and I watched a western where there was a gold rush as part of the story, she asked me, 'would you have gone prospecting back in those days?' My answer was no, I would have opened a chain of stores at the gold rushes, selling mainly tools, food and alcohol and also gambling facilities. That is where the real money was.

GreatApe

chucknorris wrote: »

When my wife and I watched a western where there was a gold rush as part of the story, she asked me, 'would you have gone prospecting back in those days?' My answer was no, I would have opened a chain of stores at the gold rushes, selling mainly tools, food and alcohol and also gambling facilities. That is where the real money was.

It is an interesting topic.

The one thing I missed when I first heard of these coins was that they would become simple gambling coins. That gives them a value between $50B to possibly as high as $1,000B

So some actual wealth has indeed been created. In the same way that building a casino is value added and even gambling itself is value added (sounds odd but people enjoy it even though it's a net loss to them). Gambling is a huge industry worth $150 billion annually in just the USA so scale up to the world and its a nearly $1 trillion GVA industry. How much of this industry with crypto coins take? I have no idea but I think these coins have a very long life left so I don't think they will go down to zero and be abandoned

I have to take my hat off to the creator of bitcoins and the many clones. Who would have thought you could invent something so simple and it become worth as much as it is

chucknorris

GreatApe wrote: »

It is an interesting topic.

The one thing I missed when I first heard of these coins was that they would become simple gambling coins. That gives them a value between $50B to possibly as high as $1,000B

So some actual wealth has indeed been created. In the same way that building a casino is value added and even gambling itself is value added (sounds odd but people enjoy it even though it's a net loss to them). Gambling is a huge industry worth $150 billion annually in just the USA so scale up to the world and its a nearly $1 trillion GVA industry. How much of this industry with crypto coins take? I have no idea but I think these coins have a very long life left so I don't think they will go down to zero and be abandoned

I have to take my hat off to the creator of bitcoins and the many clones. Who would have thought you could invent something so simple and it become worth as much as it is

I was a racecourse bookmaker (part time, on top of my other interests, both professional and commercial) for over 30 years.

AG47

MobileSaver wrote: »

It only makes sense if you are a high risk gambling addict and can afford to lose every penny you put into Bitcoin.

The important point is that no-one should kid themselves that they're investing in some sort of high-tech payment system... you are simply gambling that at a later date someone else ("a greater fool") will come along and pay you more than you paid...

Is holding the pound in cash or the bank gambling?

Yes I think it is. Just as holding any other currency, the use, the euro or Bitcoin or Litecoin