The economics of BitCoin

RandomDaveKingOfTheLand

MobileSaver wrote: »

I was online before the Internet even existed so I know where you are coming from.

However, Bitcoin has been around for 9 years, the days of "testing it out" with minimal risk are long gone and in my opinion we are firmly into dot com bubble territory now; only a fool would get into crypto today unless their only rationale was a pure and simple gamble with money they could afford to lose.

Thanks for reply, yeah it has been around 9 years but the internet took longer to get to the highly user friendly features it has today looking at the history of the internet timelines. Wasn't it like 2005 until we got uder friendly sites like youtube built on top of internet protocol and now for me youtube is the main "TV" i watch.

Using crypto or testing it out vs seriously investing amounts of money are different though?

You can pretty much test crypto out for free and if you were worried about some kinda risk you could fire up an old laptop or mobile phone you dont use to browse or download wallets etc.

MobileSaver wrote: »

I'm afraid that a lot of people are going to lose a lot of money gambling with crypto.

But people make money or lose money in investments all the time, why should crypto treated different? The volatility we've seen so far is evidence of fast growth is it not? Isn't it actually more risky to completely ignore all high risk high reward investments for your portfolio?

Some other thoughts:
Why would we now assume crypto is over at this point? why no more growth going forward? there are more people than ever in crypto now are there not? Its a great time to get involved, the space is very unsaturated right now. Even if you dont want to invest money there is opportunity to be had in crypto.

MobileSaver

RandomDaveKingOfTheLand wrote: »

But people make money or lose money in investments all the time, why should crypto treated different?

It shouldn't be treated different, it should be treated as what it is; an incredibly high-risk "investment" that in fact most people would actually call speculating or gambling rather than investing.

Just like the dot com bubble, in my opinion most people buying in to crypto today will find when they try to sell that their "investments" are worth somewhat less than they paid if not entirely worthless.

westernpromise

RandomDaveKingOfTheLand wrote: »

All the anti BTC comments are the same kinda stuff people have been saying for years. 3 Questions to the anti bitcoiners:

1.) Have you ever used crypto ?

2.) If not, are you going to just sit back and stay completely out of crypto? Even if not putting any money even from an education point of view are you not even going to test out any crypto and see what the fuss is about ?

3.)Are you afraid to use crypto?

Cant imagine what it must be like to ignore new things when they come along, i should imagine all the anti bitcoiners were really slow getting on the internet etc (unless they had to use it for work).

When the internet started getting popular, i was first person on it out of the people i knew just to test it out, the crypto trend seems similar to me. (not like that hasn't been said before but it does seem that way)

When you say you have "tested" bitcoin, what exactly did you mean?

https://www.managedfuturesinvesting.com/bitcoin-futures-ruin-bitcoin/#.Wo2hQd4w05w.linkedin

GreatApe

RandomDaveKingOfTheLand wrote: »

All the anti BTC comments are the same kinda stuff people have been saying for years. 3 Questions to the anti bitcoiners:

1.) Have you ever used crypto ?

2.) If not, are you going to just sit back and stay completely out of crypto? Even if not putting any money even from an education point of view are you not even going to test out any crypto and see what the fuss is about ?

3.)Are you afraid to use crypto?

Cant imagine what it must be like to ignore new things when they come along, i should imagine all the anti bitcoiners were really slow getting on the internet etc (unless they had to use it for work).

When the internet started getting popular, i was first person on it out of the people i knew just to test it out, the crypto trend seems similar to me. (not like that hasn't been said before but it does seem that way)

The internet clearly had value from the beginning.
Before the internet there were phones lines and they clearly had value. Machines talking to each other and exchanging data had value. You could project it further into the future and see it's value propositions increasing. Going from simple text data to pictures to music to videos to HD videos etc

Bitcoin isn't like the internet it isn't comparable
Already bit coin is nearly 10 years old. That is in technology terms old tech. What has drastically changed in bitcoin over the 10 years? 10 years ago we had crap phones which could just about play snake on them now you have an iPhone x that can do pretty much everything a computer can do. Massive progress. What has the progressed in bitcoin been over the decade?
Almost nothing. The fundamentals are the same

Likewise going out another 10 years what do you think is going to happen technology wise? Well nothing really. The hope is the user base goes from maybe a million speculators to a billion users. There is talk about improving scaling but that isn't a tech improvement really. It just means more people can use the same old tech.


Your post read of trying to induce fear of missing out.
The problem is people have already missed out.
The crypto space is worth about half a trillion dollars
Its not going to go up another 200x
There is no way crypto can do another 200x because that would take it to $100 trillion market cap, a figure above all the worlds listed stocks. Clearly impossible that a useless tech could exceed the value of all the companies in the world combined.

Crypto has a place. It's going to become gambling tokens
Plenty of people willing to gamble and crypto will take its place next to the dog races and slot machines. It will go up and down up and down and last for decades. (Assuming the users don't sue the fiat to crypto portals out if existence).


All the supposed advantages are just fake news.
Vast bulk of currency transfers are national. Aka free and near instant
International transfers can be done with companies like transfer wise at low spreads and costs and bitcoin or its clones don't help with international transfers anyway. If I need to convert pounds to bit coins then send bit coins and then convert them to dollars its going to take more time and cost than just going through transfer wise or one of the many lean currency transfer outfits that will pop up

Bit coins do have value. I'm sad I missed out at $40 when I first heard of it. Their value is in gambling.

There is an extremely unlikely sinario in that one of the coins could become a gold 2.0 I do buy that argument as possible. However I out it at less than 1 in 100 chance. And since there are at least >10 plausible clones that makes it 1/1,000 odds and if it does become gold 2.0 it only has a 20x heads up. 20 x 1/1,0000 is less than 1 so it's overpriced for the risk vs reward for the gold 2.0 case.


Good luck with your coins.

GreatApe

RandomDaveKingOfTheLand wrote: »

Thanks for reply, yeah it has been around 9 years but the internet took longer to get to the highly user friendly features it has today looking at the history of the internet timelines. Wasn't it like 2005 until we got uder friendly sites like youtube built on top of internet protocol and now for me youtube is the main "TV" i watch.

Using crypto or testing it out vs seriously investing amounts of money are different though?

You can pretty much test crypto out for free and if you were worried about some kinda risk you could fire up an old laptop or mobile phone you dont use to browse or download wallets etc.



But people make money or lose money in investments all the time, why should crypto treated different? The volatility we've seen so far is evidence of fast growth is it not? Isn't it actually more risky to completely ignore all high risk high reward investments for your portfolio?

Some other thoughts:
Why would we now assume crypto is over at this point? why no more growth going forward? there are more people than ever in crypto now are there not? Its a great time to get involved, the space is very unsaturated right now. Even if you dont want to invest money there is opportunity to be had in crypto.

Your just waffling

9 year old tech still looking for a problem to solve
There are only 3 use cases for crypto

1: currency
2: gold 2.0
3. Gambling coins

1: we already have great currency. I make thousands of transactions personally and it costs nothing and is instant

2. This is possible and could see crypto go up 20x from here but it is very unlikely and you don't know which of the crypto coins in existence or yet to come into existence will take that crown. There were thousands of online stores but only one Amazon

3. Their current and most likely future use case.

RandomDaveKingOfTheLand

MobileSaver wrote: »

It shouldn't be treated different, it should be treated as what it is; an incredibly high-risk "investment" that in fact most people would actually call speculating or gambling rather than investing.

Just like the dot com bubble, in my opinion most people buying in to crypto today will find when they try to sell that their "investments" are worth somewhat less than they paid if not entirely worthless.

Yeah so very high risk but also very high reward, its silly to not put some % in high risk investments. Gambling is -ev, up to now in crypto its +ev. Why now are things going to turn? why did it not turn bad back in 2014 when price went to $1k, nothing has changed, if anything its more stable now than before.

RandomDaveKingOfTheLand

westernpromise wrote: »

When you say you have "tested" bitcoin, what exactly did you mean?

Just like actually used it in a few ways.

RandomDaveKingOfTheLand

GreatApe wrote: »

Your just waffling

9 year old tech still looking for a problem to solve
There are only 3 use cases for crypto

1: currency
2: gold 2.0
3. Gambling coins

1: we already have great currency. I make thousands of transactions personally and it costs nothing and is instant

2. This is possible and could see crypto go up 20x from here but it is very unlikely and you don't know which of the crypto coins in existence or yet to come into existence will take that crown. There were thousands of online stores but only one Amazon

3. Their current and most likely future use case.

Bitcoin is not like amazon, amazon is a private company using the internet protocol to run on. Bitcoin is layer 1 more like the internet protocol vs amazon. Things get built on top of bitcoin or whatever other crypto network. Newer alt coins trying to copy bitcoin have more private company traits though for sure.

Why you think its unlikely we go up 20x from here? why now do things go bad or flat? i'd put it more about 50% we go up 20x from here by 2021 to be honest with many ups and downs on the way - seeing as this would be consistant with current growth patterns over the years and dont think saturation is close yet.

What problems did the internet solve in 1995, it was rubbish, you could maybe email if lucky could you? Generally people could not see the internet was going to pretty much take over the world in the future back in 1995 or 1998 etc, i dont believe that, maybe 10-20% people got it.

chucknorris

RandomDaveKingOfTheLand wrote: »

Yeah so very high risk but also very high reward, its silly to not put some % in high risk investments..

I disagree, I think it depends on how wealthy you are, for example I don't think that I am likely to be able to spend what I already have. So if I can't spend any extra gain form taking on additional risk, it does not make sense to do so.

RandomDaveKingOfTheLand

Yeah maybe there are some people who dont need to do high risk investments then ok

Still think most average people should have say... 1% minimum in crypto (Providing they can actually use computers etc) and tons of other things to diversify i guess.