The economics of BitCoin

chucknorris

RandomDaveKingOfTheLand wrote: »

Yeah maybe there are some people who dont need to do high risk investments then ok

Still think most average people should have say... 1% minimum in crypto (Providing they can actually use computers etc) and tons of other things to diversify i guess.

I don't disagree with you, your are right, although it is probably horses for courses, if I wanted higher risk I would go for VCT's rather than crypto, but that's just my preferences.

economic

I see zero future value or use in cryptos so i am happy to have no "investments" in cryptos.

I am also not a gambling man by nature so would not touch cryptos from that angle either.

RandomDaveKingOfTheLand

economic wrote: »

I see zero future value or use in cryptos so i am happy to have no "investments" in cryptos.

I am also not a gambling man by nature so would not touch cryptos from that angle either.

How do you know to trust your own judgement to be so absolute? i feel like i'd need to be expert in both crypto and traditional finance/economics to state zero future else i would not trust what my own brain was telling me.

If zero future what explains the large consistent growth in the bitcoin network year on year since its birth 9 years ago ?

RandomDaveKingOfTheLand

GreatApe wrote: »

Your post read of trying to induce fear of missing out.

Yeah should imagine my posts read of FOMO but its also im concerned for society and humanity so want people involved in crypto sure - just like i encourage non internet users to get on the internet and educate themselves because we need as many information rich members of society as possible, its better for all of us we use the internet - could be same for crypto, atm its not as clear.

The-Joker wrote: »

I!!!8217;m more confident in crypto than fiat

Agree, having a fair amount of fiat right now from BTC because of cashing out some to diversify and its worrying sitting in fiat. I know many in crypto think exactly like Joker and i, people dont trust govs and banks?

GreatApe

Your just waffling

These coins are nearly 10 years old in the tech world that is forever yet they are still not used even cheerleaders like yourself don't use them for anything beyond gambling

2007 first smartphone. 2017 there are five billion smartphone being used daily and massive progress has been made between the original iPhone and the iPhone x

Bitcoins were invented about six months after the iPhone look at smartphone usage and development vs bitcoin non usage and non development.

And as to why they can't go up another 20x from here. The reason is that they are already a $0.5 trillion market going up 20x from this point would give them a market cap of $10 trillion which is extremely unlikely. Some people even call for a 100-1000x from today which is just stupid at 1000x its value would exceed the value of all companies in the world 5x over

20x up from here is achievable only if it becomes gold 2.0 which would require central banks to buy them and why would central banks hand over that much power to some Chinese miners? Even if one does become the gold 2.0 you don't know which if the 2000 clones it will be or even if it will be one of the future clones.

So stop with this nonsense about the new Internet. It isn't comparable and within five years it will be clear these coins are for gambling not much more. They will still retail a lot of value hundred of billions but it will just be for gambling

MobileSaver

RandomDaveKingOfTheLand wrote: »

its silly to not put some % in high risk investments. up to now in crypto its +ev.

Tell that to the people who bought in the last few months, most of whom are already looking at having lost anything up to 50% of their [STRIKE]investment[/STRIKE] gamble.

RandomDaveKingOfTheLand wrote: »

Why you think its unlikely we go up 20x from here? why now do things go bad or flat?

Er, things are already going bad for Bitcoin...

• Tens of thousands of people lost everything when the Mt Gox exchange was hacked. The last I heard three years on no-one has recovered a penny.
• The supposed "value" of Bitcoin today is more than all the UK bank notes and coins in circulation and yet 9 years on you're still hard pushed to actually spend it (unless it's drugs, sex or weapons you're interested in buying!)
• Volatile pricing makes it not fit for purpose as a currency (e.g. Valve/Steam has stopped accepting BTC.)
• Volatile transaction fees make it not fit for purpose as a currency.
• Various countries have already or are considering banning Bitcoin transactions.

The list goes on...

It seems like a new crypto is announced each week; who knows which, if any, will actually become useful? Bitcoin as the first is probably the weakest and most vulnerable due to inherent design "flaws." Newer entrants like Litecoin and Ethereum address these issues and so could easily become the go to crypto and that's if any of them become anything more than a niche gambling chip.

RandomDaveKingOfTheLand wrote: »

i'd put it more about 50% we go up 20x from here by 2021.

Equally it's about a 50% chance that the price could be 1/20th of today's price by 2021.

economic wrote: »

I am also not a gambling man by nature so would not touch cryptos from that angle either.

^^ This.

Economic gets it. Crypto is a punt plain and simple. If you are the sort of person who wants to gamble 1% of your hard-earned cash on lottery tickets or the roulette table then knock yourself out but kidding yourself you are being a smart investor is silly in the extreme!

MobileSaver

RandomDaveKingOfTheLand wrote: »

If zero future what explains the large consistent growth in the bitcoin network year on year since its birth 9 years ago ?

There's a fool born every minute?

Greater fool theory

RandomDaveKingOfTheLand

MobileSaver wrote: »

Tell that to the people who bought in the last few months, most of whom are already looking at having lost anything up to 50% of their [STRIKE]investment[/STRIKE] gamble.



Er, things are already going bad for Bitcoin...

• Tens of thousands of people lost everything when the Mt Gox exchange was hacked. The last I heard three years on no-one has recovered a penny.
• The supposed "value" of Bitcoin today is more than all the UK bank notes and coins in circulation and yet 9 years on you're still hard pushed to actually spend it (unless it's drugs, sex or weapons you're interested in buying!)
• Volatile pricing makes it not fit for purpose as a currency (e.g. Valve/Steam has stopped accepting BTC.)
• Volatile transaction fees make it not fit for purpose as a currency.
• Various countries have already or are considering banning Bitcoin transactions.

The list goes on...

It seems like a new crypto is announced each week; who knows which, if any, will actually become useful? Bitcoin as the first is probably the weakest and most vulnerable due to inherent design "flaws." Newer entrants like Litecoin and Ethereum address these issues and so could easily become the go to crypto and that's if any of them become anything more than a niche gambling chip.



Equally it's about a 50% chance that the price could be 1/20th of today's price by 2021.

If it were a 50% chance it goes 20x and a 50% chance it goes to zero it makes sense to invest.

I lost money in gox. Mtgox is not bitcoin though, it was my fault for trusting mtgox. If a traditional bank shuts down and takes customer funds we dont blame the fiat currency associated, why is bitcoin different?

All the volatility has decreased in % term actually, check for yourself, it just seems bigger cause the price is bigger. The price moves in fiat terms in early years were bigger % wise vs now. Its not suitable for a mainstream day to day currency right now, think most people accept that.

Individual countires do not matter to a global network as much unless they all decide the same thing at same time, china has massive controls on the internet for example. Russia just went all pro crypto:
youtube.com/watch?v=-Toso2Cd_30

RandomDaveKingOfTheLand

MobileSaver wrote: »

There's a fool born every minute?

Hmmm maybe but that seems too convenient

chucknorris

RandomDaveKingOfTheLand wrote: »

If it were a 50% chance it goes 20x and a 50% chance it goes to zero it makes sense to invest.

There is no way that there is a 50% chance of bitcoin going up 2,000%!