First time buyer - what to offer

00ec25

Crashy_Time wrote: »

An ex-council house at a quarter of a million pounds must be very special?

poor old crashy, so disconnected from the real world and so desperate to peddle his house price crash "predictions"

average UK house price Aug 2017: £225,956.
http://landregistry.data.gov.uk/app/ukhpi

sold price
a) 3 bed semi detached ex council 13 St Leonards Place, Eastbourne, East Sussex BN20 8ND Aug 2017 £299,000

b) 3 bed mid terrace ex council 56 Avard Crescent, Eastbourne, East Sussex BN20 8UB Aug 2017 £230,000

Mutton_Geoff

Crashy_Time wrote: »

And you can also choose not to spend that amount (or more likely your valuer/bank will choose for you) Prices in London have a long way to fall.

In the 2007/2008 crash, average prices in England fell 18%. In the 3 years since you've been posting on MSE, they've actually risen 21%. From a position that was already 26% up from the bottom of the dip. Since then, prices have climbed 52%. How much of a correction do you need now? Are you aware the economics are very different from a decade ago?


Financiers will always tell you it's impossible to time the market. Do you own your own property may I ask. What's your strategy? Will you buy during the correction you forecast? If so, will you wait and try to time the bottom?


The initial reversal in the 2008 crash was almost as steep as the decline had been. What would people have been thinking in March 2009 when the recovery started? Wait a little longer for prices to fall more?


Excuse all the questions, I'm just curious if you have an informed standpoint or you just like to troll the forum hoping that one day your comments might come true?


My present house is worth 80 (yes eighty) times my first property purchase 37 years ago and yet as a % of net income, my current house is the cheapest place I've ever lived. There have been ups and downs. I experienced the crash first hand selling a BTL in that period (initially priced at £250k, sold for £202k) but it wasn't a sweat, I only paid £150k for it four years earlier so was still up 35% even with selling at the bottom of the market. As I said, you can't time it and neither should you unless you are a short term speculator.

magn8p

Well said Geoff. I have seen many pessimists like Crashy Time. In fact I know a lot idiots who voted for Brexit thinking the house prices will come down as a result.

My suggestion to the OP - going with such impractical offer just because it's an ex council house may put off the seller. Of course, if the house needs a lot of work, it makes sense. If not, you are risking of being ignored by the seller.

I understand what people say about Zoopla. It's just another tool to make a good guess. Instead of ignoring it, browse through their "recently sold" list in the area to get a good idea. Generally Zoopla estimate corrects itself as there is more activity in that area. They simply use the logic we use....take a recently sold price of a similar sized house in the area and add a certain % as the time progresses - of course they have no idea about the property's decorative state or if it's corner plot etc. So, take it seriously only if there is a good activity in that area in the last 2 years.

All the best.

Mutton_Geoff wrote: »

In the 2007/2008 crash, average prices in England fell 18%. In the 3 years since you've been posting on MSE, they've actually risen 21%. From a position that was already 26% up from the bottom of the dip. Since then, prices have climbed 52%. How much of a correction do you need now? Are you aware the economics are very different from a decade ago?


Financiers will always tell you it's impossible to time the market. Do you own your own property may I ask. What's your strategy? Will you buy during the correction you forecast? If so, will you wait and try to time the bottom?


The initial reversal in the 2008 crash was almost as steep as the decline had been. What would people have been thinking in March 2009 when the recovery started? Wait a little longer for prices to fall more?


Excuse all the questions, I'm just curious if you have an informed standpoint or you just like to troll the forum hoping that one day your comments might come true?


My present house is worth 80 (yes eighty) times my first property purchase 37 years ago and yet as a % of net income, my current house is the cheapest place I've ever lived. There have been ups and downs. I experienced the crash first hand selling a BTL in that period (initially priced at £250k, sold for £202k) but it wasn't a sweat, I only paid £150k for it four years earlier so was still up 35% even with selling at the bottom of the market. As I said, you can't time it and neither should you unless you are a short term speculator.

Sussex_Dave

Thanks.

Some really informed comments which have helped clear things up.

Dave

tori.k

Crashy_Time wrote: »

An ex-council house at a quarter of a million pounds must be very special?

That's a bargain, one in St Ives sold for 1.44 million

hazyjo

Mutton_Geoff wrote: »

Financiers will always tell you it's impossible to time the market. Do you own your own property may I ask. What's your strategy? Will you buy during the correction you forecast? If so, will you wait and try to time the bottom?

Crashy has said before he doesn't own anywhere and will never buy. Which makes me wonder why he posts on here...

Crashy_Time

Mutton_Geoff wrote: »

In the 2007/2008 crash, average prices in England fell 18%. In the 3 years since you've been posting on MSE, they've actually risen 21%. From a position that was already 26% up from the bottom of the dip. Since then, prices have climbed 52%. How much of a correction do you need now? Are you aware the economics are very different from a decade ago?


Financiers will always tell you it's impossible to time the market. Do you own your own property may I ask. What's your strategy? Will you buy during the correction you forecast? If so, will you wait and try to time the bottom?


The initial reversal in the 2008 crash was almost as steep as the decline had been. What would people have been thinking in March 2009 when the recovery started? Wait a little longer for prices to fall more?


Excuse all the questions, I'm just curious if you have an informed standpoint or you just like to troll the forum hoping that one day your comments might come true?


My present house is worth 80 (yes eighty) times my first property purchase 37 years ago and yet as a % of net income, my current house is the cheapest place I've ever lived. There have been ups and downs. I experienced the crash first hand selling a BTL in that period (initially priced at £250k, sold for £202k) but it wasn't a sweat, I only paid £150k for it four years earlier so was still up 35% even with selling at the bottom of the market. As I said, you can't time it and neither should you unless you are a short term speculator.

And that (Just stats based on tiny volumes anyway, no relevance for people who can`t find a buyer) brings us here....


https://www.bloomberg.com/gadfly/articles/2017-11-09/britain-s-vanishing-housing-market-in-charts


Politicians, banks, businesses and sensible people everywhere know that we need a crash.

chelseablue

Our ex-council 3 bed semi has recently been valued at £430,000

And that's by a surveyor not an estate agent

ReadingTim

Crashy_Time wrote: »

Politicians, banks, businesses and sensible people everywhere know that we need a crash.

We also "need" an end to things like inequality and austerity, but it doesn't mean it's gonna happen.

Crashy_Time

ReadingTim wrote: »

We also "need" an end to things like inequality and austerity, but it doesn't mean it's gonna happen.

We don`t really have these things though do we, not in the real sense of the terms, everyone can be comfortably enough off in the UK unless they sabotage themselves? What we do have though is a property bubble, and that is well over-due popping, it is causing too much political and economic strife now to be ignored.