bitcoin trading.

ColdIron

ExremelyCautiousSocialist wrote: »

Well the point was made about the previous trolls for a start if you read back. But the trolls are all over the bitcoin topics anyway

Constant trolling everytime bitcoin is mentioned is not optimum approach if protection is the goal.

You seem to subscribe to the modern social networking definition of troll to be anyone whose opinion differs from mine

ExremelyCautiousSocialist

Malthusian wrote: »

If you only want to talk about how terrific Bitcoin is with likeminded bagholders in the hope that a fresh load of suckers will believe it and pump the price again, Reddit is that way.

This a Savings & Investments forum and attempts to get people to buy into zero sum games so you can cash out and take their money will always be met with anything from ridicule to well-intentioned warnings.

Already explained this is a crypto ID so thats why im just banging on about crypto.



You wont pump a multi billion dollar market using moneysaving expert subforum. There are only 2 potential sub forums to discuss speculating on bitcoin as i see on this site.


You may get more brits involved in crypto which is 1 of my intentions since i live on this island and have to deal with the traditional finance world in relation to crypto sometimes - and it is hard.

Malthusian wrote: »

If you speculate even 0.1% of your "portfolio" on Bitcoin then you are ignoring 3,000 other cryptocurrency zero-sum games. None of them have any more intrinsic value or growth potential than another, so if you invest in one you logically have to invest in all. Otherwise you risk investing in the wrong one, and the cryptocurrency you didn't invest in goes to the moon while the rest dump to zero. A trivial 0.1% in all 3,000 of them means 300% in cryptocurrency and no room in your portfolio for investments that actually generate external profit and produce a yield.

Not how you make a valuation of a crypto currency.

Malthusian wrote: »

The only value left on the table is the real money exchanged for Bitcoins that hasn't been taken out by the minority who cashed out at a profit. (As this is a zero sum game at best, the proportion of players who make a profit are inherently a minority.) Absent a further pump (which adds more money to the table, but most of those who add it will still lose money), whoever cuts their losses and cashes out before it dumps to zero will get the rest of the value on the table.

Even if 100% correct does not mean as an individual you cannot speculate and make money and you can increase your edge via things like analysis of social media for example.

ExremelyCautiousSocialist

eskbanker wrote: »

Elsewhere on the internet is probably a better place for discussing crypto speculation, rather than erroneously seeing it as relevant to saving or investing, which is what this board is all about....

I will go its fine. Things like this https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/tax-on-cryptoassets/cryptoassets-for-individuals have come about from brtis being involved.

ExremelyCautiousSocialist

ColdIron wrote: »

You seem to subscribe to the modern social networking definition of troll to be anyone whose opinion differs from mine

No its basically trolling from the point of view of a decent constructive conversation becomes extremely difficult. Yours will be the popular opinion though.

Aegis

ExremelyCautiousSocialist wrote: »

0% portfolio speculation for everyone no matter what person is also stupid and probably been advised for years with value left on the table - probably a ton of people going to misunderstand this point now...

I speculate within my own portfolio, but I speculate into companies which own interesting patents or which are doing something that has the potential to turn into widespread profitability. Often I get it wrong and lose money, but that's fine because it's a limited part of my portfolio. However I choose to speculate, I still follow these core principles of investment when picking what I go into, i.e. I have to be able to understand where the perceived value is going to come from based on what I am going to become a part-owner in. This has led me to invest into a small pharmaceutical company (which bombed), a high-tech materials company (which is doing very well) and a treasure-hunting operation (which I expect to fail but invested in because the potential upside if they actually find what they're looking for worked in my probability calculations, but I chose to only put a small amount in). I also hold a large proportion of much lower-risk investments, of course.



I would never invest into a shell company that essentially did nothing but get traded and ramped, and that's pretty much how I see bitcoin. It isn't a currency because you can't use it as one (which I define as "paying my taxes in X"). It isn't an equity-like investment because it doesn't generate profit (paying out an "income" to some holders in the form of further tokens doesn't count because the "income" isn't in an actual currency). It's not a defensive or insurance asset (e.g. hard commodities) because its volatility is off the spectrum. In short, I don't see it as something that anyone should hold, because it's worse at every category above than existing options within those categories, and the perception of value is a complete illusion.


That said, there is always value left on the table one way or another. If I had picked a different company for one of my speculative investments last year, I might be hugely better off than I am. Leaving value on the table isn't remotely uncommon with hindsight, and no-one should ever stress about it because that stress in itself leads to poor choices next time around (e.g. "I missed the last opportunity and would have done well, so I'd better pile into the next one with everything I have"). Investing in something purely because not doing so might leave value on the table is a sucker's game - invest for solid reasons regarding value or don't invest at all.

Malthusian

ExremelyCautiousSocialist wrote: »

You wont pump a multi billion dollar market using moneysaving expert subforum.

No, but if you can convince a few thousand people to run around the whole Internet ramping Bitcoin, it can and does make a difference for as long as new players can be found to believe it. Each individual ramper's ramping may not make a difference in itself but it does in aggregate.

Even if 100% correct does not mean as an individual you cannot speculate and make money and you can increase your edge via things like analysis of social media for example.

This is a Savings & Investments forum. People here are interested in investments with a positive expectation of return via participation in economic growth, not taking money off others in zero sum games.

Snow_Dog

OK, I will try this with a constructive discussion:-


Cryptocurrency - specifically Bitcoin. Is it a currency or a speculative investment.


Is it a currency?


Many of the pro-Bitcoin promoters push that it is a secure border-less currency that is a revolutionary new type of currency....you can trade things with it, buy things, sell things and receive bitcoin in return. Sounds good so far.


Problem is when I have my money in the bank the last thing I want is to find I can only buy half a car next week because the value of my "currency" has dropped through the floor. That is quite clearly possible with Bitcoin because it has happened. (Now before you jump up shouting look at the Reichsmark or the Venezuelan Bolivar that is an economy tanking for obvious reasons). So as a currency, it is useless.


Is it an investment?


This is probably a more accurate description (dont jump on this one, im saying accurate description in the very broadest sense), you stick your money in hoping it will be worth more in the future. Praying that it will not fall in value. However in terms of risk level it is off the top of the scale isnt it, and when it actually comes down to it 99% of people probably wouldnt stake £100 on a 100/1 outsider. So when it comes down to those terms it is an incredibly risky gamble.


Does it have any value?


The reason why it is so risky and volatile is because there is ultimately nothing of value to it. Invest in a business you have patents, products, equipment, premises, employee skills - All of that has value. What has bitcoin got in terms of value? Nothing, the only thing that props up the value above zero is sentiment and belief. Both of which can evaporate overnight.


So it is not a currency, its an incredibly risky investment with zero real value. Anybody who disagrees with me must be a troll.

sabretoothtigger

Utility of a secure transaction. There is some commodity value in Bitcoin, the reason it contrasts well to modern FIAT currencies which also can qualify as digital currency is that modern FIAT could be speculated to have zero value also.

The main point of value is in the ease of transfer and enabling digital transactions. So in that contrast Bitcoin has value, in a perfect system we'd only value solid commodities with obvious use but since modern currency is based on debt related to politics its not that hard to see why Bitcoin has a place and likely continues. The supply of Bitcoin is especially constricted compared to oversupply of Yen, Euro, USD or most commonly used currency, which is why its appreciated I suppose.

If the base question is will it continue to be used, I believe it will and then its just speculation on price that will mirror the population of users, any growth in use vs that constricting supply

Ideally we'd just be exchanging wheat, gold or notes attached to countries with positive trading surplus in those industries or supporting those industries. We have alot of debt and deficit, its not coincidence Bitcoin is part of that atmosphere imo

JohnRo

Snow_Dog wrote: »

OK, I will try this with a constructive discussion:-

Anybody who disagrees with me must be a troll.

Case closed then... same old, same old.

Malthusian

sabretoothtigger wrote: »

The main point of value is in the ease of transfer and enabling digital transactions.

Transactions in Bitcoin are painfully slow and difficult. At the height of the last pump it took literally days to process a Bitcoin transaction unless you paid significantly more to jump the queue. Fiat currency transactions by contrast can be near-instant at trivial cost.

Other cryptocurrencies are better in this regard but you specifically talked about Bitcoin.

The supply of Bitcoin is especially constricted compared to oversupply of Yen, Euro, USD or most commonly used currency, which is why its appreciated I suppose.

The constricted supply of Bitcoin means that it is inherently deflationary as long as it is being used. This makes it useless as a currency because deflation is fatal for any economy. This is why it is massively unpopular. (Only a few hundred thousand criminals and bagholders use Bitcoin, compared to the billions who use fiat currencies. Less than a 0.01% market share despite being hyped to the moon = massively unpopular.)