Brexit, the economy and house prices part 5

GreatApe

ilovehouses wrote: »

Deloitte conducted a study for the German car industry on what may happen in the event of a no deal and the introduction of tariffs which would have far less impact than a 25% price increase.

They reckoned a 20% fall in total sales with just a 10% tariff. There was some predicted swapping between brands with local producers benefiting but it was minimal. That's how branding works - if you like BMWs you don't convert to Ford because the price of the BMW has gone up £12.5k - you buy a cheper model of BMW.

That's fine if they buy a cheaper BMW model it still less £££ out to the Germans and more kept in the UK.

Personally I would put VAT up on cars irrespective of Brexit.
People who buy luxury foreign cars are needlessly making the nation poorer they can be taxed for the pleasure. Of course people can still buy high end cars but it will probably mean we scrap cars slightly later so maybe keeping them on average for 14 years rather than 12 years.

ilovehouses wrote: »

I suspect your idea of a 15% fall in volume following a 25% price hike is fanciful. If I was to pluck a number from think air I'd go for a 50% drop in new car sales and assume a far lower conversion from buying imported models to locally built models.

I dont think a tariff to favor local production would be economically healthy as imo all that would happen is the local manufacturers would increase prices for local customers. But a general higher VAT on cars and perhaps even domestic appliances & Smartphones etc would be reasonable for a large net goods importing country.

I dont think there would be a huge fall in new cars sales certainly not 50% the pound went down from over $2 to under $1.40 over the last 10 years. That would mean imported cars costs should have gone up 40% in sterling above general inflation. I have no idea how much car prices have or haven't gone up but I do know that new car sales are no worse off today than a decade ago.

Anyway my general point is the economy will adjust.
The only reason we can afford to be a large net goods importer is because we are a net service exporter and a net capital inflow nation. If the Germans want to cripple our service export we will just import less goods and produce more domestically. Or we will substitute expensive goods for their cheaper cousins. So fewer iphones at £1000 and more Chinese smartphones at £150. Fewer £50k BMWs and more £15k Fords. Fewer £5,000 top of the line TVs with bells and whistles and more £500 mid range TVs. etc

wunferall

mayonnaise wrote: »

'Sense' is sourcing a good product for a good price.
Awarding a contract to a UK supplier purely based on some narrow minded nationalistic concept of identity and pride would not be 'sense'.
By the way, I didn't know Gemalto has a track record of under-priced bidding and failing to deliver. You learn something each and every day on these forums frequented by subject matter experts on everything.

Gemalto does have a history of problems. With German credit cards, Estonian ID cards and more.

Not to worry though as I feel certain that a forum member of a trade Brexit group will have ample time to research this fully and impart their somewhat delusional wisdom on this matter. If they can squeeze the time somehow in between this forum and their trade Brexit group obligations of course.

mayonnaise

ilovehouses wrote: »

I only care about what my passport does and don't care what colour it is or who prints it.

What!!?? You should be in uproar over this national humiliation.

https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/brexit-latest-blue-british-passports-contract-gemalto-national-humiliation-eu-exit-france-a8267761.html

spadoosh

mayonnaise wrote: »

'Sense' is sourcing a good product for a good price.
Awarding a contract to a UK supplier purely based on some narrow minded nationalistic concept of identity and pride would not be 'sense'.
By the way, I didn't know Gemalto has a track record of under-priced bidding and failing to deliver. You learn something each and every day on these forums frequented by subject matter experts on everything.

Loving the logic!

Care to tell me the reason why the EU impose a 10% tariff on american imported cars?

wunferall

mayonnaise wrote: »

What!!?? You should be in uproar over this national humiliation.

https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/brexit-latest-blue-british-passports-contract-gemalto-national-humiliation-eu-exit-france-a8267761.html

So now it looks like you agree that the EU does indeed interfere unnecessarily in national matters.

Under EU competition rules, large public procurement contracts must be offered to companies across the the bloc.

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2018/mar/22/post-brexit-passports-set-to-be-made-by-franco-dutch-firm

mayonnaise

spadoosh wrote: »

Loving the logic!

Care to tell me the reason why the EU impose a 10% tariff on american imported cars?

Care to tell me why the US impose up to a 350% import tariff on some tobacco products?
Care to tell me why this is relevant to the discussion?

phillw

wunferall wrote: »

So now it looks like you agree that the EU does indeed interfere unnecessarily in national matters.

I'm glad we've been prevented from damaging the UK economy for political point scoring over the last 40 years.

Now we're leaving we can now back to having the majority screwed over by the unions, like we did in the 70's.

I just hope the people losing their jobs at the passport printing company were leave voters, if protectionism is what we're doing now then I can't protect everyone. So I'll just help out with the people I identify with.

gfplux

wunferall wrote: »

So now it looks like you agree that the EU does indeed interfere unnecessarily in national matters.

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2018/mar/22/post-brexit-passports-set-to-be-made-by-franco-dutch-firm

This has been a huge benefit and opportunity of the EU.
In the past bidding on for example a state procurement of tractors or firemen’s helmets excluded foreign bidders.
The EU made it possible for a British company to bid on a contract to supply 50,000 pairs of safety gloves for the Italian Ambulance service.
What ever is wrong in opening up this part of the market,
Leaving the EU will mean that British Company’s will no longer have this access.

spadoosh

mayonnaise wrote: »

Care to tell me why the US impose up to a 350% import tariff on some tobacco products?
Care to tell me why this is relevant to the discussion?

So you dont know? Or is there another reason youre being evasive?

I do, its a policy aimed to protect american farmers. Aka protectionism.

Certainly, you said it made sense to provide a good product at a good price. This is a principle of the free market. Yet you advocate a group that doesnt allow the free market. Now, to me, that makes no sense at all. Any chance you can explain the logic for me?

spadoosh

gfplux wrote: »

This has been a huge benefit and opportunity of the EU.
In the past bidding on for example a state procurement of tractors or firemen’s helmets excluded foreign bidders.
The EU made it possible for a British company to bid on a contract to supply 50,000 pairs of safety gloves for the Italian Ambulance service.
What ever is wrong in opening up this part of the market,
Leaving the EU will mean that British Company’s will no longer have this access.

Your still avoiding my question about why the IT jobs arent being sent to China where it is cheaper over poland?