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Brexit, the economy and house prices part 5

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Comments

  • cogito
    cogito Posts: 4,898 Forumite
    Herzlos wrote: »
    Can we rely on internal politics weakening their position?

    It would be surprising if it was otherwise. Four of the major contributors to the EU, Germany, France, The Netherlands and Spain are in some governmental disarray which make the UK's problems seem small.

    There is no way that the EU can keep out of the Spanish mess. There is an election on the horizon in Italy with Veneto and Lombardy demanding greater autonomy. The Dutch government is weak and unlikely to last. Merkel has not formed a new government and her own position is far from secure. There are plenty of distractions in eastern Europe.

    All is not well in Euroland as Juncker himself admitted the other day. Not the this necessarily helps with brexit with so many other things on the EU's plate.
  • Thrugelmir
    Thrugelmir Posts: 89,546 Forumite
    Part of the Furniture 10,000 Posts Name Dropper Photogenic
    Herzlos wrote: »
    EU27 seem pretty keen to provide a united front so far.

    Perhaps not as united as it may seem. An honest opinion one suspects.
    Brexit: stop the 'games' over the bill and get on with EU deal, says Denmark

    https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2017/oct/08/denmark-dismisses-eu-wrangling-brexit-divorce-bill-game
  • Arklight
    Arklight Posts: 3,182 Forumite
    Ninth Anniversary 1,000 Posts
    cogito wrote: »
    It would be surprising if it was otherwise. Four of the major contributors to the EU, Germany, France, The Netherlands and Spain are in some governmental disarray which make the UK's problems seem small.

    There is no way that the EU can keep out of the Spanish mess. There is an election on the horizon in Italy with Veneto and Lombardy demanding greater autonomy. The Dutch government is weak and unlikely to last. Merkel has not formed a new government and her own position is far from secure. There are plenty of distractions in eastern Europe.

    All is not well in Euroland as Juncker himself admitted the other day. Not the this necessarily helps with brexit with so many other things on the EU's plate.

    I read stuff like this and I can only think of that Iraqi commander during the second Gulf war confidently explaining that the unopposed advance of the American armed forces into Baghdad was just a precursor to their complete destruction as soon as he had cleverly got them into one place.

    Since the referendum the pro-Brexit side has predicted an avalanche of doom for the EU, none of which has happened.

    The EU has stubbornly failed to collapse because the UK voted out, they aren't weak, divided, or panicking. That is all reserved for us, a country that has a government that can't get three of its own people in a room without them stabbing eachother in the back.

    The only power broker in the Catalan crisis is the EU. Catalonia may be able to survive outside Spain, but it can't survive outside the EU. That is why this brinkmanship is happening. 60 years ago this would have likely preceded another Euopean war. now it's an agenda item for the EU.

    Brexit if anything, has given the EU its first taste of power.
  • Tromking
    Tromking Posts: 2,691 Forumite
    Part of the Furniture 1,000 Posts Combo Breaker
    edited 29 October 2017 at 4:00PM
    Arklight wrote: »
    Since the referendum the pro-Brexit side has predicted an avalanche of doom for the EU, none of which has happened.

    The EU has stubbornly failed to collapse because the UK voted out, they aren't weak, divided, or panicking. That is all reserved for us, a country that has a government that can't get three of its own people in a room without them stabbing eachother in the back.

    The only power broker in the Catalan crisis is the EU. Catalonia may be able to survive outside Spain, but it can't survive outside the EU. That is why this brinkmanship is happening. 60 years ago this would have likely preceded another Euopean war. now it's an agenda item for the EU.

    Brexit if anything, has given the EU its first taste of power.

    Way too early to judge whether Brexit turns out to be the catalyst for the existential crisis for the EU that some say it will be.
    The constitutional crisis in Spain is an interesting issue for the EU and the nations within it. Is it any wonder places like Catalonia start getting uppity when the whole raison d'etre for the EU is too incrementally relegate the nation state and promote the idea of EU citizenship?
    “Britain- A friend to all, beholden to none”. 🇬🇧
  • cogito
    cogito Posts: 4,898 Forumite
    Good analogy. Comical Ali = Juncker.

    If the EU is the only power broker, why are they continuing to insist that it's an internal matter for Spain?
  • Herzlos
    Herzlos Posts: 15,924 Forumite
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    cogito wrote: »
    It would be surprising if it was otherwise. Four of the major contributors to the EU, Germany, France, The Netherlands and Spain are in some governmental disarray which make the UK's problems seem small.

    There is no way that the EU can keep out of the Spanish mess. There is an election on the horizon in Italy with Veneto and Lombardy demanding greater autonomy. The Dutch government is weak and unlikely to last. Merkel has not formed a new government and her own position is far from secure. There are plenty of distractions in eastern Europe.

    All is not well in Euroland as Juncker himself admitted the other day. Not the this necessarily helps with brexit with so many other things on the EU's plate.

    Isn't disarray more likely to result in a no deal?
  • Herzlos
    Herzlos Posts: 15,924 Forumite
    Part of the Furniture 10,000 Posts Photogenic Name Dropper
    Thrugelmir wrote: »

    It's nice paraphrasing but not what he actually said. He said politics involves a lot of games and things will be settled at the last minute; just like we already knew.
  • Thrugelmir
    Thrugelmir Posts: 89,546 Forumite
    Part of the Furniture 10,000 Posts Name Dropper Photogenic
    Herzlos wrote: »
    It's nice paraphrasing but not what he actually said. He said politics involves a lot of games and things will be settled at the last minute; just like we already knew.

    By the last minute. Wheels will already be rolling. People aren't going to wait for the games to end.
  • cogito
    cogito Posts: 4,898 Forumite
    Herzlos wrote: »
    Isn't disarray more likely to result in a no deal?

    Isn't that the likeliest outcome anyway?
  • cogito wrote: »
    Isn't that the likeliest outcome anyway?

    The likeliest outcome is a transitional deal that in effect changes almost nothing for several years.

    Then the real negotiations can begin.
    “The great enemy of the truth is very often not the lie – deliberate, contrived, and dishonest – but the myth, persistent, persuasive, and unrealistic.

    Belief in myths allows the comfort of opinion without the discomfort of thought.”

    -- President John F. Kennedy”
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