Brexit, the economy and house prices part 5

Herzlos

cogito wrote: »

My guess is that they know exactly what we want and are bricking it.

Your guess?
Being that all the indications are that the Brexit team don't know what they want (or they are playing a serious bluff) why would anyone assume anyone else knows what we want?

What the EU want is for us to continue paying them large sums of money every year in return for them running a massive trade surplus but denying us access for our services. It would amaze me if they hadn't been told that they only get the first if we get the second.

I honestly can't see a deal where we don't pay a huge amount of money into the EU in access to their financial markets. Or we can go Canada and de-emphasize financial institutions.

Herzlos

tracey3596 wrote: »

Given that we were supposedly going to be in deep recession by now it's remarkably well.
:T

Ah, so we're not actually doing well, it's just that the sky hasn't fallen in? Glad we're on the same page.

tracey3596

Herzlos wrote: »

Ah, so we're not actually doing well, it's just that the sky hasn't fallen in? Glad we're on the same page.

Either you're just itching for disagreement or you can't read; which is it please?

The UK is doing better than France, Italy and Japan from the G7.
Tell us which of those is also going through EU (or similar) withdrawal?

cogito

tracey3596 wrote: »

GDP growth 2017:
UK 1.7%
France 1.6%
Japan 1.5%
Italy 1.5%

It looks like the UK stacks up against those pretty well, thanks for pointing it out.

(For fairness, Canada = 3%; Germany = 2.1%; USA = 2.2%.
Source: https://knoema.com/nwnfkne/world-gdp-ranking-2017-gdp-by-country-data-and-charts )

The usual suspects on here who crow about EU growth exceeding that of the UK over the past year or so fall into the trap of assuming that different economies move in tandem. They don't.

If you want to look back at gdp growth stats since the financial crash, you'll find that a number of economies in the EU are still making up lost ground. Italy is still about where it was when the euro was launched. That's what is making the forthcoming Italian election so interesting. The [STRIKE]populists[/STRIKE] resistance movement are the likely winners and France and Germany won't like it one bit.

tracey3596

cogito wrote: »

The usual suspects on here who crow about EU growth exceeding that of the UK over the past year or so fall into the trap of assuming that different economies move in tandem. They don't.

If you want to look back at gdp growth stats since the financial crash, you'll find that a number of economies in the EU are still making up lost ground. Italy is still about where it was when the euro was launched. That's what is making the forthcoming Italian election so interesting. The [STRIKE]populists[/STRIKE] resistance movement are the likely winners and France and Germany won't like it one bit.

Agreed.

These usual suspects crowing about EU growth also neglect to accept that the figures are boosted by exceptional growth within their eastern member countries - this growth being funded of course by the EU's own coffers!
Romania for example; 5.5% growth - EU spending over 7 billion Euros.

tracey3596

"Juncker: It will be hard to keep EU nations together during next phase of Brexit talks"

"In the end, we'll have several extras, several exceptions that will make Europe a mess."

"I'm de-building, deconstructing Europe at the moment... and I'm not happy about that."

http://www.cityam.com/279828/juncker-hard-keep-eu-nations-together-during-next-phase


Even Juncker accepts difficulties lie ahead for the EU.

tracey3596

ilovehouses wrote: »

Difficulties lie ahead for every nation on the planet. That's a normal state of affairs.

The EU usually reach consensus and I expect that'll continue. If you ever wanted to trade a horse the EU are the best guys for the job.

Not unless you want the trading to take so long that the horse has expired before the deal is reached.

Incredible_1

It looks to me like some remainosaurs are getting more and more agitated the closer to leaving we get. Still nobody has commented on the HoL waving through the Brexit bill to the next stage and yet were fast enough when it started a few days ago.

ilovehouses wrote: »

Our unelected second chamber in action...

The bill has already been voted through the HoC by the way.

fewgroats

Incredible_1 wrote: »

It looks to me like some remainosaurs are getting more and more agitated the closer to leaving we get. Still nobody has commented on the HoL waving through the Brexit bill to the next stage and yet were fast enough when it started a few days ago.

I'm sure I called that a fudge. Quickness is not always a good thing in any case.

Incredible_1

A "low bar" eh?
And yet .................

In 2016, the UK economy seems to have grown faster than any G7 country bar Germany, which grew at essentially the same rate.

https://fullfact.org/economy/uk-still-fastest-growing-g7-economy/
So 2016 was 1.9% and 2017 was 1.8%.
Looks like steady growth to me.
But if you like forecasts, remember this one?

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2017/02/07/top-world-britain-outpace-g7-next-three-decades/