Brexit, the economy and house prices part 5

tracey3596

So the House of Lords has passed the second reading of the EU Withdrawal Bill.
:T
I wonder why the remainers kept quiet about that?

22:30 31 JanBill clears first hurdle in the Lords

EU Withdrawal Bill

House of Lords
Parliament


Labour's Lord Adonis withdraws his amendment on a second referendum and peers agree to give the EU Withdrawal Bill a second reading without a vote.

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/live/uk-politics-42860895

tracey3596

I wonder too why remainers are so quiet about UK "demands" that we are free to negotiate and sign new trade deals during any Brexit transition period?
Signs of confrontation loom.

Brexit Secretary David Davis said on Thursday that Britain’s right to sign new trade deals will be one of its main demands in talks with the European Union over the terms of any transition period.

https://uk.reuters.com/article/uk-britain-eu-trade/britain-demands-right-to-sign-new-trade-deals-during-brexit-transition-idUKKBN1FL4S9?il=0

tracey3596

Remainers have kept quiet about another looming confrontation with the EU too:

Theresa May has sparked a new clash with Brussels by saying that EU citizens who arrive during the post-Brexit transition period must not have the same rights as those who came before.

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2018/jan/31/theresa-may-brexit-transition-no-deal-for-eu-citizens-coming-to-uk

How does this square with remainer opinions of a so-called "soft Brexit"?
It looks increasingly as if the odds of a "no-deal Brexit" are increasing.

Herzlos

May (and Davis) can ask for whatever she wants. We already know (more or less) how the EU will respond.

Will it be a hard line for May or will she cave like everything else?

I agree we should be allowed to do our own trade deals from the moment we enter the transition, but the EU will (quite rightly) want to ensure that our deals don't jepordize them (i.e. we can't become a back door into EU).

cogito

Herzlos wrote: »

May can ask for whatever she wants. We already know (more or less) how the EU will respond.

Will it be a hard line for May or will she cave like everything else?

We already know how the EU are responding. It's the usual guff about not being able to formulate their positions because they don't know what we want. My guess is that they know exactly what we want and are bricking it.

What the EU want is for us to continue paying them large sums of money every year in return for them running a massive trade surplus but denying us access for our services. It would amaze me if they hadn't been told that they only get the first if we get the second.

tracey3596

British small manufacturers reported the fastest rise in new orders since 1995 last month and are more optimistic about the year to come, a survey by the Confederation of British Industry showed on Thursday.

https://uk.reuters.com/article/uk-britain-economy-smallmid/uk-small-manufacturers-see-fastest-rise-in-new-orders-since-1995-cbi-idUKKBN1FL3GJ?il=0
Yes you did read that right.
The fastest rise in new orders since 1995!
:T

Output growth was similar to mid 2017, while business optimism was the strongest since April 2014.

ilovehouses wrote: »

Yes, Tracey, your sense of humour and light-hearted attitude to brexit always shines through.

Thanks for taking the time to post between the bouts of merriment.

You're very welcome despite your own attempts at "tree-shaking".

ilovehouses wrote: »

Leavers seem to have gone quiet about UK PMI vs European PMI and about how our growth stacks up against the rest of the G7. C'est la vie.

GDP growth 2017:
UK 1.7%
France 1.6%
Japan 1.5%
Italy 1.5%

It looks like the UK stacks up against those pretty well, thanks for pointing it out.

(For fairness, Canada = 3%; Germany = 2.1%; USA = 2.2%.
Source: https://knoema.com/nwnfkne/world-gdp-ranking-2017-gdp-by-country-data-and-charts )

tracey3596

ilovehouses wrote: »

David Davis shouldn't be considered a trusted source of brexit information.

If Robbins and May can get a deal where we're able to sign new trade deals whilst part of a transition hats off to them.

Practically though I can't see any deals being signed until the UKs post transition arrangements are known. Our position in Europe is bound to be a consideration for a trade partner.

:huh:
As Secretary of State for Exiting the European Union?
Righty-ho.
:rotfl:

tracey3596

cogito wrote: »

We already know how the EU are responding. It's the usual guff about not being able to formulate their positions because they don't know what we want. My guess is that they know exactly what we want and are bricking it.

What the EU want is for us to continue paying them large sums of money every year in return for them running a massive trade surplus but denying us access for our services. It would amaze me if they hadn't been told that they only get the first if we get the second.

Yes indeed - and they've been bricking it since the result was known.
The tone and language used by so many senior Eurocrats makes that patently obvious.

It was said before Article 50 was even put forward that this "dance" would be the result & nothing so far has disproven that.
Despite all the bluster and banter, all that really remains is whether or not the EU will allow the free access the UK wants.
And that - let's be quite frank - depends purely and simply upon how much they need the money.

tracey3596

ilovehouses wrote: »

With respect I think you set too low a bar. Less than average isn't 'pretty well'.

Given that we were supposedly going to be in deep recession by now it's remarkably well.
:T

System

ilovehouses wrote: »

You don't think they turn up and just agree to everything do you. Oh, hang on....

I've only been away 2 weeks and all the teams have swapped. I thought it was remainers pointing out the UK wouldn't get what it wanted or a decent deal? The leavers who previously declared it would be great and there'll be an excellent deal are now doing jigs of delight that there won't be a deal at all.