Brexit, the economy and house prices part 5

tracey3596

Thrugelmir wrote: »

Merkel is in a far more uncertain place. Nor is the EU united. Barnier is little more than a puppet. Daily analysis of speculative facts is pointless. Best to wait for real news.

Yes.
Perhaps the poster thinks that Labour would be more effective? Corbyn's renowned for the loyalty of his MP's after all. How many times have they tried to get rid? That without mentioning that Labour have only 262 seats and despite the fanciful dreams there is no new election on the cards for the foreseeable future.

Merkel is certainly in a worse place that May, as indeed is the Netherland's Rutte with the coalition taking 208 days to form and already fragile. Or how about France's Macron, the least-popular President for many years. Austria then with Kurz looking most likely to form his coalition with the far-right Freedom Party? Should we even mention the Czech Republic and the anti-EU Andrej Babis expected to become their next PM?

But no, May is the one chosen to describe as having an unstable government "propped up by odballs". It's time that those who believe the UK is either in a poor position or unique being in a coalition really opened their eyes IMHO.

gfplux

always_sunny wrote: »

Get where? What has been achieved?
That's why the pound is in the same place

What is discouraging is the pound did not rise after this "positive" news.
I have no way of telling but it is difficult to imagine anything will lift the pound significantly. I fear the only way is down.
Brexiters will continue to say that a weak pound is a positive. It should have lead to an export boom, it did not, we are only seeing imports costing more and feeding inflation.

cogito

gfplux wrote: »

What is discouraging is the pound did not rise after this "positive" news.
I have no way of telling but it is difficult to imagine anything will lift the pound significantly. I fear the only way is down.
Brexiters will continue to say that a weak pound is a positive. It should have lead to an export boom, it did not, we are only seeing imports costing more and feeding inflation.

What positive news exactly? When Tusk and Macron are saying different things, why would the exchange rate move as a consequence?

vivatifosi

gfplux wrote: »

What is discouraging is the pound did not rise after this "positive" news.
I have no way of telling but it is difficult to imagine anything will lift the pound significantly. I fear the only way is down.
Brexiters will continue to say that a weak pound is a positive. It should have lead to an export boom, it did not, we are only seeing imports costing more and feeding inflation.

It depends what you measure the he pound against. I have spent more time in the US than eurozone and the pound has slowly ticked up sgainst the dollar, though I admit that there is still a gulf, a painful gulf for me, to where it used to be. I am not convinced the pound would be as strong were another incumbent in charge over there.

In terms of against the euro, I would expect tonsee the pound to start rising if there is some tangible plan in place, orbit the eurozone experienced an economic shock. Of course markets don't like uncertainty, so if there was a cliff edge scenario, the pound could well drop below parity.

Apologies for any typos, posting on my phone on a train.

setmefree2

Originally Posted by gfplux
What is discouraging is the pound did not rise after this "positive" news.
I have no way of telling but it is difficult to imagine anything will lift the pound significantly. I fear the only way is down.
Brexiters will continue to say that a weak pound is a positive. It should have lead to an export boom, it did not, we are only seeing imports costing more and feeding inflation.

Sterling no longer reacts to Brexit news - it's all about the BoE. Sterling is weak because interest rates are 0.25% and because of QE.

Thrugelmir

setmefree2 wrote: »

Sterling no longer reacts to Brexit news - it's all about the BoE. Sterling is weak because interest rates are 0.25% and because of QE.

While the news wasn't entirely positive. The neccesity to maintain a tight financial discipline is slowly bearing fruit.

Government borrowing at lowest September level for 10 years

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-41691656

Brexit or no brexit. The challenges always required the UK to chart it's own course.

Arklight

Enterprise_1701C wrote: »

As per your last line.

The eu have been making it up as they go along, there is nothing in section 50 that says we cannot negotiate trade before anything else, equally there is no allowance for "divorce" payment.

Why shouldn't they? The small country will kowtow to the big group of countries.

Exactly what the Brexiteers said wouldn't happen.

Mind you, considering England's long history of bullying, bombing, invading and coercing weaker states to do what they are told, you'd think they'd know how it goes without intentionally putting themselves on the losing side.

Private_Church

Arklight wrote: »

Mind you, considering England's long history of bullying, bombing, invading and coercing weaker states to do what they are told, you'd think they'd know how it goes without intentionally putting themselves on the losing side.

The UK has moved on and is a forward looking modern democracy.

A democracy respected and copied the world over so I'm surprised you mention the deeds of our ancestors as an excuse for the EU to bully us. I won't stoop to your level but surfice as to say in the not so distant past certain other European nations did very similar.

Our excuse was we did it centuries ago when we knew no better.

mrginge

Arklight wrote: »

Mind you, considering England's long history of bullying, bombing, invading and coercing weaker states to do what they are told, you'd think they'd know how it goes without intentionally putting themselves on the losing side.

Have you been to Spain recently?

BobQ

setmefree2 wrote: »

Sterling no longer reacts to Brexit news - it's all about the BoE. Sterling is weak because interest rates are 0.25% and because of QE.

Yes so low that people think their personal money tree can go on for ever as they borrow more and more on tick. Its got to stop. Its one of the fundamental weaknesses in the economy.Brexit or no Brexit.