Brexit, the economy and house prices part 5

Herzlos

posh*spice wrote: »

Many who voted Remain did so because of the lie that we would have an immediate recession with an emergency budget with tax rises and job cuts. Thst we would have mass unemployment and companies would leave Britain.

It was the remainers who told lies.

And they are still lying.

As far as I can tell the remain claims were all a bit inaccurate nut the just was correct; we're worse off. The Leave side seems to be outright fabrication, like that money for the NHS.

As applies on both sides some people didn't vote based on the lies. I'm not the biggest fan of the EU but I'd much rather we were in than out. I see the 4 freedoms as a good thing and regard the Tories as the biggest threat to the UK so I'm horrified we're granting them extra power to not solve the problems thatve been blamed on the eu.

I visit Europe a lot, so a hard Brexit will likely see me take my family and tax revenue to Germany.

HAMISH_MCTAVISH

Conrad wrote: »

Will it change when the deal is cut and you see us powering ahead economically?

Will yours change when our economic malaise and underperformance continues for a decade or more?

Rinoa

CKhalvashi wrote: »

It's been confirmed that even despite all this amazing economic news, our economy is shrinking.



Not good......

How curious. We're told ever increasing numbers of immigrants helps our economy. And yet Poland, whose population is stagnant with all their young emigrating, is powering ahead with 4% GDP.

Hmmm.

CKhalvashi

Conrad wrote: »

Will it change when the deal is cut and you see us powering ahead economically?

I don't think that's going to be the case. It's certainly not from the evidence we've seen so far, including the US government financially attacking one of Northern Ireland's biggest employers.

I've just had a long chat in a pub with a gentleman who sees the same as I do, and they had a function with clients on the night of the referendum where they held their own referendum.

85% voted Remain, 15% voted Leave.

If the government decides to continue down this destructive, unwarranted and hostile course of policy I will be forced to relocate my assets and tax base elsewhere.

There is no mandate to leave the single market as the Conservatives were elected with a majority government in 2015 on the promise of remaining in the single market. There was an attempt to include a clause to leave the single market in the 2017 manifesto and the same party failed to gain a majority.

We therefore must, to respect the will of the people, remain in the Single Market.

CKhalvashi

Eric_the_half_a_bee wrote: »

I suggest you contact the ONS and tell them their GDP figures would be more meaningful if they were expressed in real terms. Let me know how they respond.

I suggest that when coming to how I've calculated what I've calculated you use more than one set of ONS figures in coming to that calculation.

In real terms the country is poorer. This is unacceptable.

Eric_the_half_a_bee

CKhalvashi wrote: »

I suggest that when coming to how I've calculated what I've calculated you use more than one set of ONS figures in coming to that calculation.

In real terms the country is poorer. This is unacceptable.

A little learning is a dangerous thing

Ballard

Eric_the_half_a_bee wrote: »

If it's a lie to make a prediction that turns out not to come true, then every single person on the planet lies frequently, so we might as well stop claiming moral superiority over those who lie.

So you’re saying that the remain camp didn’t lie when it was predicted that the economy would collapse if we voted to leave?

Herzlos

Ballard wrote: »

So you’re saying that the remain camp didn’t lie when it was predicted that the economy would collapse if we voted to leave?

The economy is starting to struggle, so it's a magnitude issue than an accuracy issue.

Plus, the predictions were based on A50 being triggered the day after.

Herzlos

CKhalvashi wrote: »

A recession is when an economy is in decline. The economy is in decline in real terms.

Especially with this missing £490bn and reliance on credit.

However, we're technically not in a recession yet; it's a very specific term that requires 2 consecutive quarters of contraction. So we're in a bad state but not a recession (yet).

I'm not sure how inflation applies to the health of the economy. Should GDP be beating inflation to count as growth in real terms?

CKhalvashi

Herzlos wrote: »

Especially with this missing £490bn and reliance on credit.

However, we're technically not in a recession yet; it's a very specific term that requires 2 consecutive quarters of contraction. So we're in a bad state but not a recession (yet).

I'm not sure how inflation applies to the health of the economy. Should GDP be beating inflation to count as growth in real terms?

The economy remained flat in Q1 and Q2 growth-wise (0.3% for both, click here)

Inflation has spiked in Q1 and Q2 (2.2 and 2.6% over 1% in Q4/16, click here)

I am therefore standing by what I said; the UK is technically in recession even if using the metrics that Leavers and the government would like me to use we may not be.

If I seemed a bit blunt last night it's due to my patience generally wearing thin due to personal circumstances. It's not an attack on anyone here.