Brexit, the economy and house prices part 5

Tromking

HAMISH_MCTAVISH wrote: »

Eh?

Sterling has barely moved against the trade weighted index basket of currencies, it plummeted on 23rd June 2016 and has bumped along the bottom ever since.



Still firmly in Banana Republic Pound Territory.

Apologies.
In comparison to the US dollar I should’ve written.

ukcarper

Moby wrote: »

Scandinavia sports relatively high income equality, large, tax-financed welfare programs, powerful unions, and relatively low unemployment rates.

Capitalists tell us that the only way to societal prosperity is through low tax rates, deregulated business, and cut-throat competitive labor markets. Yet despite failing to meet the metrics of the Anglo-American variety of capitalism, Scandinavian countries stubbornly continue to prosper, and regularly come out on top of the global indexes of happiness and quality of life. The AfD may be in the bundestag but we have our own extremists and the only reason they are not in parliament is due to 'first past the post' not because we are better people!

Tax in Sweden is very high which in itself is not a bad thing as it supports a good level of services. The trouble is Corbyn and his supporters are saying he can give us a similar level of services but keep tax on the majority of people the same which in my opinion is nonsense.

HAMISH_MCTAVISH

Tromking wrote: »

Apologies.
In comparison to the US dollar I should’ve written.

Fair enough...

Comparing to one currency is of little relevance though, the USA accounts for less than a fifth of UK trade, and GBP has performed worse against some other currencies with which we trade as much or more.

Which is why the trade weighted basket is more useful as a measure.

And that shows no signs of recovery.

Herzlos

Tromking wrote: »

Thanks Thruglemir.
Talking of Sterling it’s not been heavily reported that it closed the year 9% down on its pre referendum level after opening the year 18% down. Accepting the Remainer mantra that we haven’t actually left yet, it does seem that every perceived negative the Remoaners like to hang their hat on are becoming as nothing.
Is Brexit or the thought of it becoming ‘normalised’ perhaps?

Could be that a hard brexit looks less likely every time may makes an announcement.

HAMISH_MCTAVISH

ukcarper wrote: »

The trouble is Corbyn and his supporters are saying he can give us a similar level of services but keep tax on the majority of people the same which in my opinion is nonsense.

He's lying.

Just as the Brexiteers are lying when they say there will be more money for services by leaving the EU - despite the costs of leaving the EU already being higher than the costs of membership - meaning less money for services not more.

But on balance, as disastrous as I reckon Corbyn would be for Britain, he'd not be as bad for Britain as a hard, extreme, Tory Brexit so I'd be mildly amused to see him get in and reckon all the extra taxes might be a price worth paying to wipe the smug grin off Farage/Boris/Gove's faces.

Thrugelmir

Tromking wrote: »

Is Brexit or the thought of it becoming ‘normalised’ perhaps?

Many factors in play. With the UK economy proving resilient. The unwinding of post GFC monetary policy is underway. Albeit very slowly. People overlook the fact that Brexit isn't the only topic on the agenda. The budget deficit is still being addressed on a daily basis. A rise in interest rates supports the £. Further rises will do likewise.

GwylimT

ukcarper wrote: »

Tax in Sweden is very high which in itself is not a bad thing as it supports a good level of services. The trouble is Corbyn and his supporters are saying he can give us a similar level of services but keep tax on the majority of people the same which in my opinion is nonsense.

People do find higher taxes harder to accept. We live in Sweden, due to higher taxes all childcare is free at point of use, it is available at the weekend as well which is handy for many workers. You pay a small fee each month if you want the nursery to supply nappies etc I think it is about £70 a month.

Education is very good, all extras such as ingredients for cooking, sport shoes, lunch etc are included at no extra cost.

Parental leave is good, 480 days, with 320 of those days being paid at 80% of your income. This can be shared however you like, however if you share you can be off work at the same time as your partner and you are both paid. You can also take this on a part time basis, so if i go part time at work my parental leave will continue to be paid at a half rate until the allocated days are over.

The state pension can be drawn from the age of 61 (they are thinking of changing his to 63), typically people will receive around half their income, but many people also have private or work pensions. So the average person had a pension worth 70% of their salary on retirement, this means most have plenty in retirement. Those who worked a low income, or couldn't work due to disability receive a topped up pension of £560 a month. Even with the state pension the more you pay the larger pension you will receive.

If you are elderly and need home care, or a care/nursing home this has a cost, you pay 4% of your overall fees unless your income is low, if you own property you can choose to pay this in one lump sump when your property is sold (any unused years are refunded) or after death from your estate.


If you lose your job you are paid 80% of your salary for the first 200 days then 70% for the next hundred. If you are not part of a union you are instead paid a fixed fee of £25 a day. After 300 days you are enrolled into a job scheme and paid 65% of your previous dalary until you find work.

If you are ill you receive 80% of your pay in sickness benefits, you are also well supported, for example you will be givem treatment to assist you in getting back to work, such as physio etc to get you work fit. You can return on reduced hours and benefits will make up the shortfall in wages until you are well enough to go back on your previous full hours.

mrginge

Moby wrote: »

There is a generation gap bigger than ever before due to the hoarding of property and wealth by the older generations. Even when they die these resources will be passed on to family therefore limiting the spread and opportunities of children from less wealthy backgrounds. We need a major increase in inheritance tax to deal with this.

Sorry Moby but that’s not happening. Despite your desire to drive a massive wedge between the generations, even the most rampant lefty student millennial will baulk at the thought of ‘their’ inheritance being nabbed out from under their nose.

kabayiri

HAMISH_MCTAVISH wrote: »

...
But on balance, as disastrous as I reckon Corbyn would be for Britain, he'd not be as bad for Britain as a hard, extreme, Tory Brexit so I'd be mildly amused to see him get in and reckon all the extra taxes might be a price worth paying to wipe the smug grin off Farage/Boris/Gove's faces.

Do you not think a Corbyn PM would push the Tories even further to the right in response?

I feel like there is yet more polarisation in politics coming, and also more regional politics (the SNP have shown a lead there).

kabayiri

mrginge wrote: »

Sorry Moby but that’s not happening. Despite your desire to drive a massive wedge between the generations, even the most rampant lefty student millennial will baulk at the thought of ‘their’ inheritance being nabbed out from under their nose.

The focus should be on bringing through quality jobs which young people can fill IMO.

Rather than tax breaks, we could embark on high tech public works projects, and route them all the way back through the University channel...the research parks etc.

Good jobs...relevant skills...focus on productivity...they will then be able to afford housing.

(Just don't run it like HS2 which will go down as one of the biggest white elephants in our history).