Brexit, the economy and house prices part 5

cogito

kabayiri wrote: »

How is it specious.

For some, the vote to Leave was clearly a misdirected complaint against globalism, that seems obvious to me.

You can look at vox pop sentiment from regions in the UK; heart land USA; or Greece/Italy/Spain etc. You will get common complaints, and it all boils down to people struggling to adapt to a changing world.

Labour follows capital now, and capital moves wherever it can find a good return. Even Germany shifted parts production to Eastern Europe for it's auto makers.

Will Brexit fix things? Obviously not. I've just come back from the Far East, and I reckon there are more opportunities out there, until it all goes a bit pear of course.

Not only parts production but the whole thing. VW Touareg, Audi Q7 and Porsche Cayenne all buolt in Slovakia.

gfplux

Companys/owners/shareholders/consumers are all part of the decision process that sees production move from one country to another and other huge changes.
The other factor is events, such as borders being dismantled (see East/west Germany) Hong Kong become part of Chine again, war ending, see Vietnam.
One such event is Britain leaving the EU. The effect will be seen over the next few years. Frankly that effect IMO will NOT be to the benefit of Britain.

However 52% think it will be a great opportunity but frankly is it and if it is will Britain be able to take that opportunity.
Warning, the performance of the British Government over the last +2 years is no indicator of future performance.

I AM ALSO POSTING THIS IN PART 6 AS WE APPEAR TO HAVE PART 5 RESERECTED

GreatApe

Thrugelmir wrote: »

Likewise there's no possibility of Apple repatriating manufacturing back to the US on any scale. Cost base just isn't comparable with China. Post GFC has shifted the power eastwards. The West has to become cheaper to compete.

The east is just catching up from ultra poverty towards western standards largely thanks to embracing free-er markets and capatilism

China is still poor but growing well with real wages having doubled on the decade and likely to double again in the next decade but that will still leave them at half UK wages and productivity levels and 1/3rd USA levels

But maybe toward the 2040s China will be towards UK levels of wages and productivity

GreatApe

gfplux wrote: »

Companys/owners/shareholders/consumers are all part of the decision process that sees production move from one country to another and other huge changes.
The other factor is events, such as borders being dismantled (see East/west Germany) Hong Kong become part of Chine again, war ending, see Vietnam.
One such event is Britain leaving the EU. The effect will be seen over the next few years. Frankly that effect IMO will NOT be to the benefit of Britain.

However 52% think it will be a great opportunity but frankly is it and if it is will Britain be able to take that opportunity.
Warning, the performance of the British Government over the last +2 years is no indicator of future performance.

I AM ALSO POSTING THIS IN PART 6 AS WE APPEAR TO HAVE PART 5 RESERECTED

Manufacturing is a long term dead end sector.
As manufacturing becomes more and more automated the jobs and economic sector and importance will just shrink and shrink

It could be that by 2050 manufacturing looks like farming does today. with just 1-2% of the workforce and economic output (worldwide) employed in manufacturing things

Even now a lot of manufacturing is services. A $1000 iphone is more than half services/software/advertising/profit rather than 'manufacturing'.

Malthusian

GreatApe wrote: »

It could be that by 2050 manufacturing looks like farming does today. with just 1-2% of the workforce and economic output (worldwide) employed in manufacturing things

I've just had a vision of a shining future. The Common Manufacturing Policy. In 2050 we could employ tens of thousands of Eurocrats to devise and administer a policy to support manufacturing jobs (an irrelevant few thousand of jobs, at the cost of many times more jobs in dead weight loss), promote "self-sufficiency" and preserve the important architectural heritage of old factories.

One year the CMP would require us to spend billions in subsidy to produce millions of EUpads and EUphones and store them in vast warehouses. The next year it would decree that all these unused electronics were bad for the environment, and billions in subsidy would be spent on producing hammers to smash the EUpads and EUphones with. Then all the hammers would be exported to Africa to pulverise their nascent hammer industries and keep the natives in subsistence agriculture where Remainers think they belong.

Daniel54

Malthusian wrote: »

keep the natives in subsistence agriculture where Remainers think they belong.

Under "Anything but Arms" the EU applies zero tariffs and zero quotas to the world's poorest countries.

In what way should the UK diverge from this principle once it leaves ? How would divergence from EBA by the UK assist rather then hinder the poorest African countries ?

Genuine question,as you obviously have reservations

http://trade.ec.europa.eu/tradehelp/everything-arms

Thrugelmir

GreatApe wrote: »

The east is just catching up from ultra poverty towards western standards largely thanks to embracing free-er markets and capatilism

China is still a one party state. With an aim of a minimum annual income of $300 per head. I doubt it cares how it finally arrives at this level of income. Nor whether Western standards of living fall as a consequence. Trump's apparent madness does have a real agenda behind it.

GreatApe

Thrugelmir wrote: »

China is still a one party state

While I think that is a bad thing I would not oppose their current system by the simple fact that it is working to make very very poor people much less poor very quickly. I am happy for them to continue as they are for at least another 20 years.

. With an aim of a minimum annual income of $300 per head. I doubt it cares how it finally arrives at this level of income. Nor whether Western standards of living fall as a consequence. Trump's apparent madness does have a real agenda behind it.

China will get richer irrespective of the west as they have finally entered the electrification age (circa 2000)

Them getting richer does not mean you getting poorer

Just look at cars they will build about 30 million vehicles this year almost all of that for the domestic Chinese market. That is volume of vehicles greater than the EU + USA combined. The notion that the chinese are stealing or stole manufacturing jobs is simply wrong and false. They are indeed a big manufacturer but mostly for Chinese consumption

They are already well past the $300 per head mark they are actually over $10,000 per capita right now and will likely be at ~$20,000 per capita by 2030

Thrugelmir

GreatApe wrote: »

They are already well past the $300 per head mark they are actually over $10,000 per capita right now and will likely be at ~$20,000 per capita by 2030

Forget headlines. Drill down to micro level, i.e. everybody not some.

antrobus

GreatApe wrote: »

While I think that is a bad thing I would not oppose their current system by the simple fact that it is working to make very very poor people much less poor very quickly. I am happy for them to continue as they are for at least another 20 years....

Their current economic system is market capitalism. It has been a lot more successful than their prior dalliance with state capitalism aka socialism.