Housing market move given Brexit and interest rise

chappers

Crashy_Time wrote: »

so are you going to bet against him?

Yep, at the last election due to some blinding campaigning he went from being the last person that people thought could run the country to picking up support with some populist policy.
He has continued that to the point of ridiculousness. I am even hearing people who were staunch Corbynites at the last election saying labours subsequent promises are impossible to fund and will have a financial detriment to the country.
We heard the likes of Mcdonnell and Skinner saying there is nothing wrong with borrowing ourselves out of trouble. Well that's as may be, but as I mentioned previously the bond market is not performing brilliantly, he might not even be in a position to secure the funding he needs, well not at a reasonable price anyway.
He could get cut by both edges of the sword, a lack of liquidity and having to pay high incentives.
Those betting on a change of government might well be holding off investing at the moment if they think there might be richer pickings to come.

A flattening of the housing market will only be good for a very few who have cash in the bank

ukcarper

Crashy_Time wrote: »

People clinging on paying their mortgage will do nothing for the sentiment needed for enough people to keep bidding up the housing market with debt, that sentiment is already dead in the water.

Maybe but that doesn't mean a crash it means stagnation or small falls, as for people bidding up housing market who knows.

cloo

Round where we are, it seems that 'good' properties (nice layout, good decorative order) are still selling fast and I'd guess at near asking price. Less than great ones are not selling - eg house round the corner in a good position but slightly odd looking and with an unusual layout has dropped its price from £900k to £850k (which is of course still ridiculous). People are certainly less willing to accept any old thing but not necessarily crash country I'd say. More a prolonged stagnation perhaps.

_CC_

Crashy_Time wrote: »

I explained in another post, a "buoyant" housing market, in other words a bubble, no longer works for a large number of people, why do you think TM did so badly in the last election?

But it works for a larger number of people i.e. those who own homes.

Plus, if you remember back, it was the so called 'dementia tax' that caused May's bid to start to unravel.

A policy that would use the equity built up by older people to pay for social care, taking the burden away from the working tax payer.

I don't see how that fit into your narrative.

May had a rubbish campaign and Corbyn far exceed expectation. Despite this, the Conservatives still won >50 more seats.

Housing was hardly mentioned in the campaign. The scrapping of tuition fees probably has far more to do with the youth vote turn out.

When you obsess on a certain subject you start to view everything through that prism

Crashy_Time

_CC_ wrote: »

But it works for a larger number of people i.e. those who own homes.

Plus, if you remember back, it was the so called 'dementia tax' that caused May's bid to start to unravel.

A policy that would use the equity built up by older people to pay for social care, taking the burden away from the working tax payer.

I don't see how that fit into your narrative.

May had a rubbish campaign and Corbyn far exceed expectation. Despite this, the Conservatives still won >50 more seats.

Housing was hardly mentioned in the campaign. The scrapping of tuition fees probably has far more to do with the youth vote turn out.

When you obsess on a certain subject you start to view everything through that prism

"Endless HPI" springs to mind

Thrugelmir

ukcarper wrote: »

What makes you say that since 2007 affordability criteria has been tightened so people are less likely to default.

The elephant in the room is those that borrowed in the pre crash boom. Interest only liars loans etc. The impact of which won't be felt until 2020 onwards. When the number of mortgage redemptions starts to rise.

ukcarper

Thrugelmir wrote: »

The elephant in the room is those that borrowed in the pre crash boom. Interest only liars loans etc. The impact of which won't be felt until 2020 onwards. When the number of mortgage redemptions starts to rise.

I can see interest only loans being a problem for some people but people with liar loans which I don't think there are large numbers off have been paying their loans for 10 years at least so will probably be OK.

Jack_Johnson_the_acorn

Crashy_Time wrote: »

"Endless HPI" springs to mind

Said literally no-one ever, every Bullish poster on this forum has said that the property market is cyclical, but in the end it's always better to buy than rent over a 20-30 yr period.

But I guess arguing against strawman arguments makes you feel like a winner :beer:

Thrugelmir

ukcarper wrote: »

I can see interest only loans being a problem for some people but people with liar loans which I don't think there are large numbers off have been paying their loans for 10 years at least so will probably be OK.

There are large numbers who haven't been repaying the capital owed on their mortgages. Northern Rock went for volume over quality. All those names that vanished in the GFC have legacy mortgage books. Bradford and Bingley, Portman, Chelsea, A&L, Southern Pacific Mortgages, GMAC, to name a few. Then more recently there's Brittania which crippled the Co-Op. Membership of the CML dropped by a third after the GFC. The lenders left the market. But the mortgages remain.

Crashy_Time

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/live/uk-england-leeds-41639546?ns_mchannel=social&ns_source=twitter&ns_campaign=bbc_live&ns_linkname=59e59536e4b0cf0501cacb69%26Listen:%20Dramatic%20drop%20in%20Yorkshire%20house%20prices%26&ns_fee=0#post_59e59536e4b0cf0501cacb69