The forthcoming budget

Filo25

Malthusian wrote: »

Tell that to the East Germans. Change is only incremental up until the point people get sick of nothing actually happening, at which point change actually happens, all at once.

On a Monday people will go to bed believing universal basic income is impossible, on a Tuesday they will wake up believing it is inevitable, on the next 6 April people will receive their first payment, and on 7 April people will be unable to imagine that it was ever any different.

I don't see any significant political drive for Universal Income in the UK though, over the years any polls I have seen around the subject seem to show that people in the UK generally have a lot of sympathy for the working poor, and they have a fair bit of sympathy for those struggling under the public sector pay cap, they still aren't overburdened with sympathy for those who aren't working at all.

I don't forsee a huge groundswell of support for giving everyone a significant pot of money with no testing around it in the near future.

Even the Corbyn led Labour party largely ignored reversing austerity with regards to Benefits in their manifesto, it may play well with Labour members, currently it doesn't with the public at large.

michaels

Filo25 wrote: »

I don't see any significant political drive for Universal Income in the UK though, over the years any polls I have seen around the subject seem to show that people in the UK generally have a lot of sympathy for the working poor, and they have a fair bit of sympathy for those struggling under the public sector pay cap, they still aren't overburdened with sympathy for those who aren't working at all.

I don't forsee a huge groundswell of support for giving everyone a significant pot of money with no testing around it in the near future.

Even the Corbyn led Labour party largely ignored reversing austerity with regards to Benefits in their manifesto, it may play well with Labour members, currently it doesn't with the public at large.

If you presented the tax free allowance (20% of 11k = £2200) as a payment to every citizen then wouldn't it be fair that everyone got it, not only those who were able to work?

I like the idea as it then incentivizes all employment so those who currently think they can't work or face marginal tax rates of close to 100% are suddenly able to see that even working a couple of hours a day is going to make them better off and that might just change their mindset. IT would also mean that there would be much less incentive for black economy working again because the marginal rates faced would be much lower.

Filo25

michaels wrote: »

If you presented the tax free allowance (20% of 11k = £2200) as a payment to every citizen then wouldn't it be fair that everyone got it, not only those who were able to work?

I like the idea as it then incentivizes all employment so those who currently think they can't work or face marginal tax rates of close to 100% are suddenly able to see that even working a couple of hours a day is going to make them better off and that might just change their mindset. IT would also mean that there would be much less incentive for black economy working again because the marginal rates faced would be much lower.

The problem is though that UI is pretty much meant to replace the benefit system, and I don't see many people being able to survive on £2,200 a year, so to properly replace the benefit system you have to have it at a much higher level which invariably means much higher marginal tax rates to support the massive spend.

I do agree though that we should clearly have a benefit system that more clearly incentivises people to work, it is just tough to do that while still providing an acceptable standard of living to those who aren't working without incurring a lot of expense.

michaels

Filo25 wrote: »

The problem is though that UI is pretty much meant to replace the benefit system, and I don't see many people being able to survive on £2,200 a year, so to properly replace the benefit system you have to have it at a much higher level which invariably means much higher marginal tax rates to support the massive spend.

I do agree though that we should clearly have a benefit system that more clearly incentivises people to work, it is just tough to do that while still providing an acceptable standard of living to those who aren't working without incurring a lot of expense.

I agree the numbers don't add up, perhaps as well as the basic citizens income we could have citizens hostels that provide very basic accommodation, food etc, perhaps the citizens income could be tied to doing chores for those who choose the hostel option? (Note I am just stream of consciousnesses stuff now, I haven't thought through the implications)

Malthusian

Filo25 wrote: »

I don't see any significant political drive for Universal Income in the UK though, over the years any polls I have seen around the subject seem to show that people in the UK generally have a lot of sympathy for the working poor, and they have a fair bit of sympathy for those struggling under the public sector pay cap, they still aren't overburdened with sympathy for those who aren't working at all.

It is the working poor that will benefit most. Hugely so. Because they will no longer be hammered by the effective 90% income tax rate due to withdrawal of benefits.

The ones who will lose out most from universal basic income are the ones most disliked by voters, who claim disproportionate amounts of housing benefit and child benefit and suchlike (however rare they are in reality).

It will be extremely popular (once it is a political reality) and, re Filo, there will be no massive spend. There will be an enormous saving on the administration and staffing costs of running the horrendously complicated and dehumanising system we have at the moment, not to mention the extra tax raised from all the productivity that is currently lost to the benefits trap.

Thrugelmir

Malthusian wrote: »

Tell that to the East Germans.

East Germans moved West, Poles and Czechs moved in.

Thrugelmir

michaels wrote: »

For the mega rich who already work for the prestige rather than the money I guess this makes no odds but for the moderately wealthy anecdotally there seems to be an incentive to only work 4 days per week etc as the extra income is not worth the extra effort - great for those who choose a better work/life balance, not so good for tax revenues and thus redistribution.

Still leaves a window of opportunity for others. True entreprenuers do it for the buzz not the money. Keeps one young you could say.

antrobus

Malthusian wrote: »

...

It will be extremely popular (once it is a political reality) and, re Filo, there will be no massive spend. There will be an enormous saving on the administration and staffing costs of running the horrendously complicated and dehumanising system we have at the moment, not to mention the extra tax raised from all the productivity that is currently lost to the benefits trap.

You are basically wrong. The problem with a universal income ( or whatever you want to call it) is that it is very expensive to implement. As iin it requires large inctreases in income ax rates.

The issue is that there are millions of people who are economically inactive, and don't pay tax or receive benefits. Paying them a universal basici income will cost billions.

Malthusian

antrobus wrote: »

The issue is that there are millions of people who are economically inactive, and don't pay tax or receive benefits. Paying them a universal basici income will cost billions.

Look at how much the current system costs and get back to me.

antrobus

Malthusian wrote: »

Look at how much the current system costs and get back to me.

Look at how much a universal income costs, and get back to me.

There are plenty of sources on the internet where people have crunched the numbers. They are not difficult to find.:)

There are about 5 million students and housepersons who neither pay much in the way of tax nor receive benefits. Paying them a 'universal income' of, say 6,000 a year, will cost an extra 30 billion.
That's about 6% on the basic rate.