Brexit, the economy and house prices (Part 3)

always_sunny

ukcarper wrote: »

Who in the EU has acknowledged that, I'm sure Germany will not be happy losing 7.6% of its exports.

Germany has said before that they will not jeopardise the EU for the UK.
It's not whether they are happy to lose the UK market, is whether the British market is worth risking the EU.
That's the argument that Conrad and Co keep bringing up, let's wait and see what happens.

Thrugelmir

always_sunny wrote: »

Germany has said before that they will not jeopardise the EU for the UK.
It's not whether they are happy to lose the UK market, is whether the British market is worth risking the EU.

When push comes to shove business will rule over politics. As a business is there to make money for it's shareholders, employ people and pay them a wage. Politicians are expendable. Their lifetime is short. The EU is not a unified force either.

cogito

always_sunny wrote: »

See how you go with negotiations elsewhere, it's a free world.

We somehow manage to trade perfectly well with other countries without trade agreements. As an example, our exports to the USA are half as much again as to Germany. In the sense that countries freely trade with each other without tariffs or other restrictions, I doubt that there's such a thing as a free trade agreement anywhere in the world. Even in the EU.

cogito

setmefree2 wrote: »

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2017-08-29/macron-draws-ire-from-poland-in-push-on-social-dumping-chart

https://www.neweurope.eu/article/poland-takes-macron-eu-labour-reform/

The French were one of the main objectors when Cameron grovelled in front of the EU and begged for restrictions on free movement.

It now seems that the French want restrictions on, erm, free movement.

always_sunny

Thrugelmir wrote: »

When push comes to shove business will rule over politics. As a business is there to make money for it's shareholders, employ people and pay them a wage. Politicians are expendable. Their lifetime is short. The EU is not a unified force either.

Does it? We have seen it in the UK that despite "UK businesses are getting together to demand a softer Brexit" the choice is very different.
When push comes to shove we will have to see, it is presumption to assume that 27 nations are willing to compromise their unity to do a deal with the United Kingdom.
Has any of the EU27 officially said they're willing to break from this EU27 unity and do a deal?

Rusty_Shackleton

Thrugelmir wrote: »

When push comes to shove business will rule over politics. As a business is there to make money for it's shareholders, employ people and pay them a wage. Politicians are expendable. Their lifetime is short. The EU is not a unified force either.

You're assuming that businesses won't prioritise integrity of the single market even if that means losing a lot of business in the UK. Businesses will always prioritise the more valuable market, and that may well include sucking up to EU and EU27 politicians rather than standing up to them. As for the expendable politicians type remarks, if they're so impotent why are we having any problems? I think youre underestimating the powers and influence the key players have - businesses will be listened to but ultimately politics wins out. If it didn't, brexit wouldnt be a thing now, would it?

always_sunny

cogito wrote: »

We somehow manage to trade perfectly well with other countries without trade agreements. As an example, our exports to the USA are half as much again as to Germany. In the sense that countries freely trade with each other without tariffs or other restrictions, I doubt that there's such a thing as a free trade agreement anywhere in the world. Even in the EU.

Is that why the UK is pushing for these trade deals with the EU? With the USA? With other countries? You make it sound like those folks the UK sent to Brussels are a tad lunatic then.
Give it a go.

Thrugelmir

always_sunny wrote: »

Does it? We have seen it in the UK that despite "UK businesses are getting together to demand a softer Brexit" the choice is very different.
When push comes to shove we will have to see, it is presumption to assume that 27 nations are willing to compromise their unity to do a deal with the United Kingdom.
Has any of the EU27 officially said they're willing to break from this EU27 unity and do a deal?

The UK defaults to WTO rules. That's the bottom line. Business and trade will continue. Politics will simply come second.

BMW directly employs over 18,000 people in the UK. Their Mini and Rolls Royce divisions are currently driving forward group profitability. Where do you think their priorities lie?

cogito

The EU's propaganda mouthpiece in the UK, the Guardian, is at it again with another non-story.

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2017/aug/30/uk-confusion-and-hesitation-means-brexit-talks-unlikely-to-move-on

They can always find some non-entity in the EU to spout the nonsense that their remoaner readers want to hear.

cogito

Thrugelmir wrote: »

The UK defaults to WTO rules. That's the bottom line. Business and trade will continue. Politics will simply come second.

BMW directly employs over 18,000 people in the UK. Their Mini and Rolls Royce divisions are currently driving forward group profitability. Where do you think their priorities lie?

If there's no agreement on trade with the EU, we should simply say to them that there will be no tariffs on their goods.