Brexit, the economy and house prices (Part 3)

Thrugelmir

Conrad wrote: »

And the last thing Eurozone needs is sending UK into recession destroying a prime consumer market, let alone making it harder to sell to UK

Given consumer debt levels. A slow down is more or less assured.

A_Medium_Size_Jock

Two recent pieces in Politico:

Europe’s Teutonic moralizers might want to look at what’s happening at home.

http://www.politico.eu/article/daimler-volkswagen-bmw-porsche-audi-siemens-the-dishonest-germans/

August is supposed to be a dull month for European politics, thanks to the long summer holidays enjoyed by many on the Continent. It rarely works out that way. Political crises, armed conflicts and financial fires have a habit of ignoring the holiday schedules of European politicians.

http://www.politico.eu/article/6-summer-hotspots-for-european-politics-crises/

cogito

A_Medium_Size_Jock wrote: »

Two recent pieces in Politico:


http://www.politico.eu/article/daimler-volkswagen-bmw-porsche-audi-siemens-the-dishonest-germans/


http://www.politico.eu/article/6-summer-hotspots-for-european-politics-crises/

Politico is generally rabidly pro-EU so it is quite unusual to see them publishing an article with a generally negative stance.

You can add Korea to the list. Remember that there has never been a peace settlement, merely a ceasefire, and several EU members supplied troops (Belgium, France, UK, Luxembourg, Greece and the Netherlands). If hostilities resume, there will most certainly be a UN call for forces from EU countries.

cogito

And the EU has now issued an infringement notice to the Polish government:

http://www.reuters.com/article/us-poland-politics-eu-idUSKBN1AE0CD

A_Medium_Size_Jock

cogito wrote: »

And the EU has now issued an infringement notice to the Polish government:

http://www.reuters.com/article/us-poland-politics-eu-idUSKBN1AE0CD

That one's a bit more severe than the one preventing logging:
https://www.ft.com/content/5e3cafd3-fe52-3faf-a6a9-eff9b8467909

The reaction of Poles will be ........... interesting to observe.

mayonnaise

Let's keep on topic please, Poland is not a member of the Eurozone AFAIK.

Germany Exports

Exports from Germany increased by 14.1 percent year-on-year to EUR 110.6 billion in May 2017, as sales rose to the EU countries (11.8 percent to EUR 64.2 billion); to the Euro Area countries (13.4 percent to EUR 40.8 billion); to EU countries not belonging to the Euro Area (9.2 percent to EUR 23.5 billion); and to countries outside the European Union (17.3 percent to EUR 46.4 billion)

https://tradingeconomics.com/germany/exports

Tromking

mayonnaise wrote: »

Let's keep on topic please, Poland is not a member of the Eurozone AFAIK.

Germany Exports


https://tradingeconomics.com/germany/exports

Good news for Germany and the Germans undoubtedly.
You ignore of course the political ramifications within the EU of a rampantly successful Germany and the notoriously parochial German consumer not playing the game by buying other people's stuff in the same volume as other Europeans buy theirs.
Perhaps the Germans will step in and pay for the 10% drop in the EU budget when the UK finally leaves and takes it contributions with it?
Only fair.

mayonnaise

Tromking wrote: »

Perhaps the Germans will step in and pay for the 10% drop in the EU budget when the UK finally leaves and takes it contributions with it?
Only fair.

Sure, either some nations will have to increase their contribution, or they'll have to have a look at the spending side.
Either way, I'm confident a solution will be found.
The EU being a $ 20 trillion economy, our contribution (8bn) is quite small anyway in the grand scheme of things.

A_Medium_Size_Jock

mayonnaise wrote: »

Let's keep on topic please, Poland is not a member of the Eurozone AFAIK.

Slovakia is though and they are amongst the member states which the EU is pushing into accepting migrants, isn't it?
Despite these countries not wanting the migrants and the migrants not wanting to go to these countries.
http://www.france24.com/en/20170726-brussels-piles-pressure-eu-eastern-bloc-countries-migrants-poland-hungary-slovakia-czech

Well the EU has to do something, doesn't it?
After all, global opinion will not be improved by reports such as:

EU accused of 'wilfully letting refugees drown' as NGOs face having rescues suspended in the Mediterranean

http://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/europe/refugee-crisis-ngo-rescue-ships-mediterranean-sea-italy-libya-eu-code-of-conduct-deaths-2300-latest-a7866226.html

A_Medium_Size_Jock

mayonnaise wrote: »

Sure, either some nations will have to increase their contribution, or they'll have to have a look at the spending side.
Either way, I'm confident a solution will be found.
The EU being a $ 20 trillion economy, our contribution (8bn) is quite small anyway in the grand scheme of things.

You're more confident than many within the EU's own bureaucracy then who recognise that losing around 10% of the EU budget will hurt.
That list includes Günther Oettinger, the European commissioner for the budget BTW.

Brexit could blow €20bn hole in EU budget, warns European commissioner

Britain’s withdrawal from the EU could leave the remaining 27 countries with a €20bn a year hole in their budget, requiring additional EU taxes to fill the gap, the European commission has said.

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2017/jun/29/brexit-blow-20bn-hole-eu-budget-european-commissioner