Media Is Now Predicting A Massive 40% Property Price Crash

Koldweather1

I seem to recall equally large doomsday reports in the 2008 crash, and sure the prices did go down a reasonable amount, but It wasn't much of a crash in the end, probably HtB and a gradual loosening of money by the central banks nipped it in the bud before it got into the 90s type drop.

ACG

I am a Mortgage Broker so could potentially be seen as biased, but think about supply and demand. London being the potential exception if all of the foreign investors pull out and the banks move abroad, demand massively outstrips supply in large parts of the UK.

If supply and demand were equal, how would 40% be wiped off property values?

Even during the recession, the demand was still there, it was just banks who tightened their belts as they had to hold more capital. They now have a little more flexibility in that during t egood times they build up more capital, during downturns they can use some of that capital - the idea being it helps to reduce the effects of boom and bust.

It is just scaremongering by papers.

conqueror01

I seem to recall equally large doomsday reports in the 2008 crash,

It was definitely a difficult year or two for jobs.

2008 was a global event.

Currency devaluation £ vs $ or euro seems a fair bet.

We could end up in a situation [due to high inflation] where everything is less affordable (be it your food bill or houses) rather a housing crash?

But if we had that crystal ball...

Westminster

Daily Fail need to fill the gaps between all the adverts.

Most months for the past several years they say that NOW NOW NOW is the time to grab the cheapest rates before the go up (usually backed up by the obviously impartial L&C or Charcol commentator)

For the pedant in me though, just want to correct a couple of comments from above - the government have no say in the interest rate (and quite tight too). That is, unless you are a fully paid up member of the tin-foil hat brigade ;-)

Bossypants

Westminster wrote: »

Daily Fail need to fill the gaps between all the adverts.

I took one look at the source and immediately put it down as entertainment, surprised you're the first person to mention it.

patel007

ACG wrote: »

I am a Mortgage Broker so could potentially be seen as biased, but think about supply and demand. London being the potential exception if all of the foreign investors pull out and the banks move abroad, demand massively outstrips supply in large parts of the UK.

If supply and demand were equal, how would 40% be wiped off property values?

Even during the recession, the demand was still there, it was just banks who tightened their belts as they had to hold more capital. They now have a little more flexibility in that during t egood times they build up more capital, during downturns they can use some of that capital - the idea being it helps to reduce the effects of boom and bust.

It is just scaremongering by papers.

Do you live in lodon? I live in london and average mortgages people talk about for a small flat/house is around 450k, not sure what the average is for london according to stats - unfarble and arifically high due to low rates and oversea gamblers.

I do agree with most that no one konws when the crash will come but nornally comes overnight

patel007

A bit forward but I will try and OT but relevant to this topic - so many decent/agreeable posts but not a single thank you to the op, not cricket, is it.

00ec25

patel007 wrote: »

A bit forward but I will try and OT but relevant to this topic - so many decent/agreeable posts but not a single thank you to the op, not cricket, is it.

"it" is not a game

"it" is about making reasonable statements for discussion, not repeating tabloid sensationalism as though it were a reliable prediction.

asking for thanks when you could not be bothered to post on the correct forum is very sad. Had you done so there are loads of [STRIKE]lunatics[/STRIKE] fellow "believers" over there who will give you the thanks you apparently crave.

meantime, perhaps spend as much time learning to spell as you do reading the Daily Fail?

Thrugelmir

patel007 wrote: »

Are you lot estate agents by any chance?

The role of the Estate Agent is to help obtain the best possible price for the vendor for their property. Ultimately what the vendor is prepared to accept is down to them. Personally I wouldn't use an Estate Agent that treated my property like a can of baked beans. If the price is low enough of any product it will fly off the shelves. If there's a surplus of property in a particular locality then prices may well fall sharply. As some vendors may have a necessity to sell up, i.e. relationship breakdown.

conqueror01

assuming the worst:
-if you don't move its not such a big deal
-10,20,30 years later it will be different
-renting isn't great, how long can you wait
-you buy after the crash, your house is also worth less, but probably paying a higher interest rate on mortgage
more other stuff:
-might also get hit by a bus
-could have unexpected family/health/job problem

not saying what to do... but for most people the situation is always going to be organic, you just have to minimise your risks and have (save) money for a rainy day (or many!)

some people try to find that balance or pouring money into housing (SE) and somewhere where they might be slightly less job opportunities but more reasonable housing costs.. this is a problem people face in other first world countries (Australia,Canada etc.)...