Media Is Now Predicting A Massive 40% Property Price Crash

Crashy_Time

GingerFurball wrote: »

House prices are still rising- they're just rising less steeply than 12 months ago. Particularly in markets like London, which went insane.

Sales volumes must be falling though, judging by some of the threads on here?

PField

Crashy_Time wrote: »

Sales volumes must be falling though, judging by some of the threads on here?

Yep supply's going down, demand is still the same.

Crashy_Time

PField wrote: »

Yep supply's going down, demand is still the same.

Why are there threads on here about people waiting months and years to find a buyer then?

sheff6107

I'm far more interested in the RICS transaction rates rather than prices. And they're not good.

A larger number of first time purchasers, high remortgage rates and prices held up by low transaction rates aren't necessarily positive signs of a healthy market.

kilby_007

The market's shocking around here. Hardly any buyers or sellers but the desirable houses are going way above what they should be going for. Anything average or even slightly above average is sitting on the market for months or years, being slashed in price frequently, when a few years back virtually anything was selling!

Saying all that, we've just bought because 1) We need to get on with life and 2) We can afford it and intend to stay put for at least 10 years. It was a decision I didn't take lightly and it's actually taken a good 18 months to come to weigh up the pros/cons of buying vs waiting.

AdrianC

Crashy_Time wrote: »

Why are there threads on here about people waiting months and years to find a buyer then?

Two reasons...

1. They're in parts of the country where demand is restricted.
2. They're pricing over-optimistically.

Even then, 1 is always outstripped by 2.

Fine example... Here in the Welsh borders, most places take a couple of years to sell. But... Our neighbours put their place on the market last week. They're going to sealed bids this week. Why? Simple. Because it's the right house, priced right. The house isn't perfect - by a long chalk. It has a very big downside, which can't easily be worked around. But... it's a good house, priced right.

PhilE

GingerFurball wrote: »

House prices are still rising- they're just rising less steeply than 12 months ago. Particularly in markets like London, which went insane.

Still is insane. Here in Surrey, its also going mad. If gentrification ever spills over from South London, then it will also be fully insane.

00ec25

Crashy_Time wrote: »

Why are there threads on here about people waiting months and years to find a buyer then?

because they are in the wrong part of the UK - perhaps you struggle with geography? Hint: look at a map, the top is north where the poor people live, the bottom is south, where the rich people live. Properties in the south are selling quite easily, although I grant that is an advanced level concept beyond your understanding - perhaps ask your mother to explain it to you?

http://landregistry.data.gov.uk/app/ukhpi
Current index
As of April 2017 the average house price in the UK is £220,094, and the index stands at 115.43. Property prices have risen by 1.6% compared to the previous month, and risen by 5.6% compared to the previous year.

brit1234

The daily mail is only calling 40% because its increasing obvious a large correction going on. If you look at the London market it has been going down the pan for 2 years. However where the big falls have been in the central areas, rises in the subburbs maskedthem and prices outside London gave a positive figure to the house price indexs. About 6 months ago falls started appearing in the subburbs and the South East making the national figures negative.

There are a large number of reasons for this:
1, Foriegn investors drying up (Rusisan santions, Chinese capitial flow restrictions, money laundering clamp down).
2, Stamp duty changes (higher charges for expensive properties, 3% stamp duty if you already own property).
3, Landlordtax changes (drastic change to wearand tear allowance, removal of partial tax relief).
4, Landlord lending tighterning up (PRA tighterning up drastically lending on single properties and as on September across the whole portfolio).

However we still have record low mortgage/interest rates (which can't go lower) and crazy schemeslikehelp to buy that massively inflate house prices for irresponsibly low deposits which put people inextreme danger of negative equity.

I personally don't care if you think prices won't fall the fast majority of indicators are showinga downturn in the healthest parts the house selling season. All those people who just spout supply and demand as a simple reason that prices won't fall were shown wrong in 2008 and shouwn very wrong in Japan 1990s which mirrors the UK today very closely.

We will see what happens but I enjoying the moment with a large bag of pop corn with all the negative news. Maybe I can finnally afford to buy after saving a huge deposit for years, maybe.

antrobus

brit1234 wrote: »

The daily mail is only calling 40%

The Daily Mail is not 'calling' anything. It is merely reporting on the views of one Paul Cheshire, Professor of Economic Geography at the LSE.

Professor Cheshire seems to be a smart chap...
http://www.lse.ac.uk/researchandexpertise/experts/profile.aspx?KeyValue=p.cheshire%40lse.ac.uk

.. the Daily Mail however is only a newspaper.