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Octobers MPC Decision

245

Comments

  • If house prices are 20% over-valued, does that mean that they were about right 18 months ago?

    20% my donkey!

    I expect a 0.25% cut. It's impact wouldn't be so great if it was expected ;)

    Election in November followed by 4 more years of Gordie & co.

    :)

    GG
    There are 10 types of people in this world. Those who understand binary and those that don't.
  • Generali
    Generali Posts: 36,411 Forumite
    10,000 Posts Combo Breaker
    If house prices are 20% over-valued, does that mean that they were about right 18 months ago?

    My opinion is that in a lot of places it's closer to 50%. Probably not the best bit of research to put out if you've got a huge stack of Mortgage Backed Securities to try to sell!
  • Melissa177
    Melissa177 Posts: 1,727 Forumite
    Just got 6:1 on Betfair for a 0.25% cut. Bit of a punt as I think they'll probably wait a while before cutting, but good odds so couldn't resist!


    My boyfriend at Medium Sized Bank has just put on 100 quid at the same odds this morning, along with the other interest rate trader at the same Big Bank that Generali works for.

    I might lay it off just before lunchtime when the rest of Big Bank does the same ;)
    Errors of opinion may be tolerated where reason is left free to combat it. - Jefferson
  • Generali
    Generali Posts: 36,411 Forumite
    10,000 Posts Combo Breaker
    6-1 probably isn't a bad bet. Any ideas what odds a 25bps rise is? Big Bank are a bit puritanical about things like that.
  • Melissa177
    Melissa177 Posts: 1,727 Forumite
    Ah, you can't get on to Betfair can you? Probably when my other half is talking to your IR trader - he can access Betfair and yours can't!

    199-1 for a .25 rise
    2/11 on for no change
    6-1 for a .25 cut
    Errors of opinion may be tolerated where reason is left free to combat it. - Jefferson
  • ashcarrot
    ashcarrot Posts: 650 Forumite
    Part of the Furniture 500 Posts Combo Breaker
    Although I reckon a 0.25% cut is the right thing at the moment, Merv the money perv would have hinted at it I reckon. He likes to hint does that one.

    Although for some reason I see blanchflower voting for a rise for no other reasong but just to peeve people off.
    Money, Money, Money ..... Banks/Casinos/Bookies give me all you money its a poor mans world....
  • Generali
    Generali Posts: 36,411 Forumite
    10,000 Posts Combo Breaker
    I think I'll have a couple of quid on a rise. That or lay no change. I've got another GBQuid 20 from recomending someone to Betfair (he got £20 as well that he's putting on a cut) so easy come, easy go.
  • Melissa177
    Melissa177 Posts: 1,727 Forumite
    BTW Generali - OH says that there is a "backdoor" on Bloomberg that allows you to use Facebook, Betfair, Youtube etc which will bypass your bank's security. Might want to check it out..
    Errors of opinion may be tolerated where reason is left free to combat it. - Jefferson
  • the odds on a cut are now 4/1. lots of people backing it?
  • Melissa177
    Melissa177 Posts: 1,727 Forumite
    Marketing is rapidly tightening - now down at 4/1!

    Spread is wide tho
    Errors of opinion may be tolerated where reason is left free to combat it. - Jefferson
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