Brexit, The Economy and House Prices (Part 2)

GreatApe

always_sunny wrote: »

Can't wait post-Brexit to see how the UK will puts aside its industries (and workers) for the cheapest products and services from abroad.

What are some products that the UK produces cheaper than anywhere else?

Why do we need to produce things cheaper than anyone else, does apple produce the cheapest phones on earth?

buglawton

We should all take note of Roger Bootle's gem of an article here:
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2017/08/20/cliff-edge-brexit-just-another-name-project-fear/

Conrad

always_sunny wrote: »

Can't wait post-Brexit to see how the UK will puts aside its industries (and workers) for the cheapest products and services from abroad.

What are some products that the UK produces cheaper than anywhere else?

On balance I believe a global free trading approach will be of net benefit. For example the ability to import cheaper car electronics from outside the EU either low or tariff free, which makes our car manufacturing more competitive.


Again you see doom and downsides, I see opportunity and benefit.

Conrad

Remaoners are in another spin this time about EU funding of UK infrastructure being withdrawn.


Once again the reaction is knee-jerk hysteria instead of rational assessment.


WE SEND THE EU ALL THAT MONEY, THEY GIVE US SOME OF IT BACK


Jeeze this is hard

GreatApe

Conrad wrote: »

On balance I believe a global free trading approach will be of net benefit. For example the ability to import cheaper car electronics from outside the EU either low or tariff free, which makes our car manufacturing more competitive.

Again you see doom and downsides, I see opportunity and benefit.

Manufacturing is going to die irrespective of Brxit or anything else.

In 20 years time it will be like agriculture is today, no one talks of boosting agriculture output or boosting agricultural jobs its an irrelevant 1% of GDP and 1% of jobs and manufacturing will go the same way.

CKhalvashi

Conrad wrote: »

Remaoners are in another spin this time about EU funding of UK infrastructure being withdrawn.


Once again the reaction is knee-jerk hysteria instead of rational assessment.


WE SEND THE EU ALL THAT MONEY, THEY GIVE US SOME OF IT BACK


Jeeze this is hard

But what is the cost of duplicating the services the EU provides to us and doing it ourselves?

I'd suggest you're running into more than we are paying for the services.

Look at aviation; if we leave EASA, then we have to license people to fly and maintain the planes within our own regulatory framework. This means BA, Virgin, Easy and Jet2 (being the biggest 4 in the UK) are completely stuffed.

It can take an airline 2 years to get the authorisations and write the manuals to get one type of plane in the air. There are going to be 11 aircraft types with just those 4 airlines in the air next year, with around 40 engine specifications. Then you have the smaller operators who again operate multiple types of plane with multiple types of engine.

This is going to be very expensive, time consuming and costly to sort out, with the cost likely running far beyond what we're paying the EASA to do it for now.

And no, it's not going to be realistic to go for FAA specifications for it, the first reason being down to the 1500 hour rule, so it's likely better to keep it as it is.

That's just one, there are many others.

buglawton

Government runs July budget surplus for first time in 15 years
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-41010705

Brexit, the gift that just keeps giving (if, that is, you believe that recent economic news has anything to do with Brexit )

CKhalvashi

buglawton wrote: »

Government runs July budget surplus for first time in 15 years
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-41010705

Brexit, the gift that just keeps giving (if, that is, you believe that recent economic news has anything to do with Brexit )

From the article:

But Ruth Gregory, economist at Capital Economics, said the figures were probably just a blip, as the deadline fell on a different day of the week from last year.
"Self-assessment receipts were boosted by the 31 July deadline falling on a Monday this year, but Sunday in 2016, meaning that some receipts were recorded in August last year," she said.
She pointed out that so far, borrowing was still some 9% higher than the £20.9bn seen last year, with the OBR expecting this to worsen further.

Sorry it's not all as rosy as you wanted us to believe.

If it's good news it is because of Brexit, if it's not it's nothing to do with Brexit I have been led by people here to believe

Conrad

CKhalvashi wrote: »

This is going to be very expensive, time consuming and costly to sort out, with the cost likely running far beyond what we're paying the EASA to do it for now.

Once again, you guys see insurmountable barriers, I see simple adaptation and grown-up solutions.


It is highly unlikely other countries would benefit from trade and tourism disruption, for example Spain's real estate sector took down the whole nation after 2008 and is only just recovering. The last thing it needs is another property collapse due to Brits unable to rent holiday property in Spain as they cannot get here.


Norway and Switzerland have paid for associate membership.


The US for example is a major investor in UK, there's no benefit to them disrupting trade and so a way will be found to reach agreement that our planes are safe and sound.


As to cost duplication of regulation, not an issue, for one thing this is money kept in the UK employing UK citizens, spreading the wealth.


This all comes back to what I said to Hamish 24 months ago; We aren't jellyfish bobbing about on the tide of destiny, we can and will sculpt new realities.

Rusty_Shackleton

Conrad wrote: »

Image demonstrating how EU tariffs inflate the price of oranges and excludes S African produce.

https://twitter.com/DavidJo52951945/status/899925973583396864

You're linking to someone who claims that increasing tariffs benefits the EU. That's a bit difficult when the EU sets the tariffs that are then collected by respective national governments.

Argue about tariffs all you like, there are arguments to both sides, but when someone shows such an obvious lack of comprehension on the system they're talking about, it's hard to take the rest of their point without the pinch of salt.