Brexit, The Economy and House Prices (Part 2)

Herzlos

A_Medium_Size_Jock wrote: »

Oh and before you even think about dismissing these, think about which are not factual?

We'll start with the export growth - there have been a few reports posted on here that volume hasn't been increasing lately.

Softbank (a phone company) would have bought ARM (a processor company, used in essentially all phones) wherever it was. The fact it became 20% cheaper certainly didn't hurt.

Tourism went up (is it still up?) because of the drop in GBP, which is a good thing I'll give you. As is the rest of the inward investment.

So there's been some good things caused by the drop in GBP in the short term at least, and some investors haven't been put off by Brexit. But as far as I can tell that's it. All we've got is "The sky hasn't fallen"

That said, I'm not expecting anything measurably positive to come from Brexit until at least a couple of years after we've fully disengaged.

I'm not sure why we even bother to debate it; nothings going to happen for ages. I really should just get on with my life

Thrugelmir

gfplux wrote: »

The growth figure, a first estimate from the National Statistics Institute (INE), suggests the country's economy has finally grown back to the size it was before the credit crunch of 2008.

Doesn't say much for the collective power of Eurozone membership.

I note you never mentioned how UK shareholders got shafted by Santander (yet again) recently. Self interest clearly still comes first when it comes to national interest.

A_Medium_Size_Jock

ilovehouses wrote: »

The very first one?



Economic boom

Did the depreciating pound not then lead to boosted exports and tourism?
Evidence please.

Filo25

A_Medium_Size_Jock wrote: »

Did the depreciating pound not then lead to boosted exports and tourism?
Evidence please.

Boosted exports and tourism is a bit different from an economic boom though.....

A_Medium_Size_Jock

Filo25 wrote: »

Boosted exports and tourism is a bit different from an economic boom though.....

Not really; as both increased considerably that in turn may be indeed called a "boom".
Regardless, our own media uses equal examples of erroneous terminology every day.
I have not seen denial of such examples as "Brexit Earthquake" (?); Brexiteers Declare War On The BBC" etc. etc. etc.

Thrugelmir

Herzlos wrote: »

We'll start with the export growth - there have been a few reports posted on here that volume hasn't been increasing lately.

Exporting isn't simply price dependent. Price doesn't change demand for a manufactured product. International companies use just in time systems to reduce the amount of cash tied up in stock. Ford isn't going to manufacture more engines for export unless vehicle sales increase in Europe.

Softbank (a phone company) would have bought ARM (a processor company, used in essentially all phones) wherever it was. The fact it became 20% cheaper certainly didn't hurt.

More concerning is the fact the UK sells off it's family silver to continue to party. Softbank wanted the technology.There's a huge risk that the European micro electronic industry as a whole won't be able to compete with the threat from Asia.

Filo25

I don't think anyone would call any economic period in the UK since the GFC an "economic boom"

I fully agree there are plenty of other propaganda style articles from the other "side" as well, Brexit doesn't bring out the best in reporting from most media outlets

A_Medium_Size_Jock

Filo25 wrote: »

I don't think anyone would call any economic period in the UK since the GFC an "economic boom"

I fully agree there are plenty of other propaganda style articles from the other "side" as well, Brexit doesn't bring out the best in reporting from most media outlets

Indeed so; those regarding "boom" terminology at increases of a few percent are great examples and yet are widespread.
"Export boom" in particular has been much-used in UK media.

Re:

Filo25 wrote: »

I read it, I can't even recall where, not sure quite why the accusatory tone on this one anyway, its hardly a case of Brexxit bashing, hardly like there would be any reason to make it up!

No offence was intended.
It is however good practise to either preface with along the lines of "IIRC" or to support a claim with evidence to avoid just such a misunderstanding.

A_Medium_Size_Jock

After yesterday's spat about the possibility of Brexit talks stalling comes this:
Both sides want to speed up Brexit talks by meeting more frequently

The U.K. and EU’s chief Brexit negotiators David Davis and Michel Barnier both want to quicken the pace of Brexit negotiations by holding more frequent talks over the summer and fall, according to individuals familiar with the position in both camps.

http://www.politico.eu/article/both-sides-want-to-speed-up-brexit-talks-by-meeting-more-frequently/

Thrugelmir

A_Medium_Size_Jock wrote: »

Indeed so; those regarding "boom" terminology at increases of a few percent are great examples and yet are widespread.
"Export boom" in particular has been much-used in UK media.

Means little when imports show little sign of falling significantly. The UK needs to source and consume more domestically produced product. Then we would have a possibility of seeing a boom. As the country as a whole would get wealthier through increased levels of activity.