Brexit, The Economy and House Prices (Part 2)

cogito

This article should be compulsory reading for anyone who believes that the EU are seriously negotiating with the UK.

https://geopoliticalfutures.com/eu-authoritarianism-complexity/

I have posted before that the EU are not in fact negotiating but Barmier has been sent with an inflexible set of position papers that every EU member has signed up to. This gives a veneer of unity but we'll see how long it lasts if the UK sticks to its red lines. Negotiating implies compromise but we can see how much the EU is willing to compromise when it rejects the UK's reasonable offer on the rights of EU citizens in the UK. There are two million EU citizens living in Canada but the EU didn't raise the subject of jurisdiction by the ECJ when negotiating its trade deal.

There's also an interesting scenario brewing over Irish exports to other EU countries. 80% of these go through the UK which is many hours faster than going by sea which matters a lot when these are perishable items. This potentially raises a number of issues over inspections. No doubt the EU will strain at a gnat as usual and hack off the Irish in the process.

Herzlos

A_Medium_Size_Jock wrote: »

Or is it still "non-news"?

It's news now. Pretty good news at that.

gfplux

I think discussing chlorinated chicken got in the way of what Britain would hope to GAIN from a free trade deal with USA.
Britain would expect to export more than they do at the moment and import more but less than the export increase.
What are those things Britain will sell more of with reduced duty at port of entry.
I hope Britain will not sacrifice the British (or Thai) farmer on the alter of Chlorinated chicken and hormone injected Beef. If that is the case what would an American administration hope to gain by signing with Britain.
I have asked before but know one has an opinion.
Perhaps Mr Fox will tell us all when he returns home.

gfplux

cogito wrote: »

This article should be compulsory reading for anyone who believes that the EU are seriously negotiating with the UK.

https://geopoliticalfutures.com/eu-authoritarianism-complexity/

I have posted before that the EU are not in fact negotiating but Barmier has been sent with an inflexible set of position papers that every EU member has signed up to. This gives a veneer of unity but we'll see how long it lasts if the UK sticks to its red lines. Negotiating implies compromise but we can see how much the EU is willing to compromise when it rejects the UK's reasonable offer on the rights of EU citizens in the UK. There are two million EU citizens living in Canada but the EU didn't raise the subject of jurisdiction by the ECJ when negotiating its trade deal.

There's also an interesting scenario brewing over Irish exports to other EU countries. 80% of these go through the UK which is many hours faster than going by sea which matters a lot when these are perishable items. This potentially raises a number of issues over inspections. No doubt the EU will strain at a gnat as usual and hack off the Irish in the process.

As I had posted a couple of days ago the export route from Ireland to the EU is not brewing, this is a fact of life that I suspect was news to most if not all posters on this thread. They have to find a solution and that may be high speed ro ro ferrys but we have to wait and see.
A positive for Britain is getting all those lorrys off the motorways.

Here is the story again from politico.
http://www.politico.eu/article/cargo-food-production-producers-brexit-burns-irelands-british-bridge-to-eu-markets/

Conrad

U.K. Factory Production Hits Two-Decade High as Exports Grow

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2017-07-25/u-k-factory-production-hits-two-decade-high-as-exports-grow

A_Medium_Size_Jock

Donald Trump on the USA/UK trade talks:

Donald Trump promises 'very big and exciting' trade deal with the UK after Brexit

http://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/americas/us-politics/donald-trump-us-uk-trade-deal-uk-brexit-leave-eu-protections-liam-fox-twitter-a7859101.html

As another poster pointed out:

posh*spice wrote: »

The US needs a win. We need a win. I think they'll be like "Let's do this".

Bye Bye Eu

cogito

gfplux wrote: »

As I had posted a couple of days ago the export route from Ireland to the EU is not brewing, this is a fact of life that I suspect was news to most if not all posters on this thread. They have to find a solution and that may be high speed ro ro ferrys but we have to wait and see.
A positive for Britain is getting all those lorrys off the motorways.

Here is the story again from politico.
http://www.politico.eu/article/cargo-food-production-producers-brexit-burns-irelands-british-bridge-to-eu-markets/

High speed RoRo or ConRo ferries stlll have the drawback that they take a lot longer to get to France or Holland than do road vehicles. This is important for perishable products. All the EU actually needs to do is set up a system where vehicles habe customs seals which can be inspected when the vehicle reenters the EU. I bet the EU will find a way to complicate it.

gfplux

cogito wrote: »

High speed RoRo or ConRo ferries stlll have the drawback that they take a lot longer to get to France or Holland than do road vehicles. This is important for perishable products. All the EU actually needs to do is set up a system where vehicles habe customs seals which can be inspected when the vehicle reenters the EU. I bet the EU will find a way to complicate it.

You may be right but don't you think the EU will need Britains help to complicate it.

That may be the medium term solution but in a few years time after Brexit the Irish will be very vulnable if they keep driving lorrys through a "third country" longer term they need a better solution.

A_Medium_Size_Jock

ilovehouses wrote: »

I'm not however expecting any slowing of the Americanisation of the food chain which is sending 'us' to early graves. At least high fructose corn syrup isn't as prevalent in Europe.

High fructose corn syrup is only another sweetener.
The difference between this and other sweeteners is ?
Enlighten us ................ oh no, hang on ................. the yawning is starting already.

Don't mention the other "nasties" used in quantity in UK food manufacture like palm oil or countless other examples.
No, because they cannot be decried as being used mostly in American foodstuffs can they?

The Irish must be eating a lot of American stuff then - they're on course to become the fattest nation in Europe by the end of the decade according to the WHO.
http://www.thejournal.ie/obesity-surgery-costs-3511083-Jul2017/?utm_source=facebook_short

A_Medium_Size_Jock

gfplux wrote: »

You may be right but don't you think the EU will need Britains help to complicate it.

That may be the medium term solution but in a few years time after Brexit the Irish will be very vulnable if they keep driving lorrys through a "third country" longer term they need a better solution.

It looks like the EU may well force the complication all on their own.
This just-released statement fro Guy Verhofstadt & the European Parliament Steering Group makes it sound as though the EU will stick to demands of the ECJ having a "full" future role in UK affairs.
That has repeatedly been said to be unacceptable on the UK side.

“Last but not least, the European Parliament wants the Withdrawal Agreement to be directly enforceable and to include a mechanism in which the European Court of Justice can play its full role.”

http://www.europarl.europa.eu/news/en/press-room/20170725IPR80503/brexit-statement-by-guy-verhofstadt-and-the-ep-brexit-steering-group