Ownership amongst the young

Windofchange

economic wrote: »

No. what is also not mentioned is not only is there wealth in the baby boomer generation homes. but also the savings they have accumulated over the years during periods of rampant wage growth and high interest rates. this occuring over a workign life of 40 years is huge sums of money that canbe easily gifted early enough to help children buy a property for themselves.

Except as has already been covered more times than I can remember the wealth is not split evenly.

https://www.ifs.org.uk/publications/8835

"Future inheritances are likely to be highly unequal. Even excluding the super-rich (for whom we do not have reliable data), the richest half of elderly households hold 90% of the wealth and the richest 10% hold 40% of the wealth. Hence a ‘lucky half’ of younger generations look likely to get the vast majority of inherited wealth."

But you and great ape believe that 95% of people will inherit a house. Not even a Captain Picard face palm can adequately surmise the stupidity of your statements.

ukcarper

economic wrote: »

its very true, i almost laughed at the dysfunctional comment, but realised it is actually very true.

If home ownership is 70% then statistically 3 in 10 won't inherent a share of a property.

Windofchange

ukcarper wrote: »

If home ownership is 70% then statistically 3 in 10 won't inherent a share of a property.

Let alone breaking down how many within that 70% have more than 1 child, don't need to go into a care home etc etc etc. Great Ape and Economic won't let facts get in the way of the debate though. I await the next ludicrous statement.

Windofchange

It'll be something along the lines of if we exclude:

people with children
people who aren't in a relationship with another person who is earning the full-time male median wage
people who are Bulgarian
people who have no car
people who don't have an iPhone
people who never go out
people who save at more than three times the national average
people who don't have rich parents who can give them at least £125k
....
...
..
.
people whose surname isn't Smith or Jones


Then 95% of that group will inherit a house.

GreatApe

ukcarper wrote: »

If home ownership is 70% then statistically 3 in 10 won't inherent a share of a property.

But people have two pairs of grand parents. Using your 70% that gives a 9% chance that both side of grand parents do not own. So a 91% chance that you will get at least half of a house.

I used the figure of 80% of grandparents owning their own home. So a 96% chance at least one of the two pairs of grandparents own.

GreatApe

Windofchange wrote: »

Let alone breaking down how many within that 70% have more than 1 child, don't need to go into a care home etc etc etc. Great Ape and Economic won't let facts get in the way of the debate though. I await the next ludicrous statement.

Back a few generations ago women had 6 kids each who had 6 kids each so grandparents had 36 grand children and couldn't help them much at all.

However the birth rate for UK born women is now below 2. Last I checked it was 1.75 so wealth is getting concentrated. It means grand parents now have about 1.5 grand children and the grand children of course have two pairs of grand parents.

If both pairs of grand parents own their own home (and about 80% of pensioners own) that means they could leave 2 fully paid homes for their 1.5 grand kids. So the kids actually get 1.33 homes each.

If one set of grand parents own and the other set dont then the 1.5 grand kids get 1 house between them so they get 0.67 of a home each.

If neither grand parents own (about a 5% chance of that) then the kids get nothing.


The idea that the wealth is all destroyed in care homes is wrong. Few people spend their final years in care homes and those that do often only spend a few years in there. The reality is that Inheritances and gifts are increasing each and every year and the savings rate is still positive.


UK born kids are mostly set for life. Its the first gen migrants that have it hard and of course the UK born who have parents who haven't saved anything to pass on.

GreatApe

I give too much credit to Mr bags of wind and co. Let me restate the position step by step.

About 80% of grandparents own their own home mostly outright.

UK born women have 1.75 children.

That means

80% of kids with UK born grand parents will get 1.33 homes each.

4% of kids with uk born grand parents will get 0 homes each

16% of kids will UK born grand parents will get 0.67 homes each



And yes I'm aware people can't have fractions of a child no one has 1.75 children but for this discussion we don't need to split it up any further to integer kids families the general points stand

GreatApe

Windofchange wrote: »

It'll be something along the lines of if we exclude:

people with children
people who aren't in a relationship with another person who is earning the full-time male median wage
people who are Bulgarian
people who have no car
people who don't have an iPhone
people who never go out
people who save at more than three times the national average
people who don't have rich parents who can give them at least £125k
....
...
..
.
people whose surname isn't Smith or Jones


Then 95% of that group will inherit a house.

Lots of homes get passed down

Of course its not polite conversation to talk about gifts and Inheritances in real life so those who don't expect anything don't realise how common it is as they assume everyone is like them but they are very much in the minority.

In fact I think my earlier guess is wrong, that even fewer than 5% will not inherit if you look at spousal Inheritances too.

That is to say a person has two pairs of grand parents but also two pairs of grandparents in-laws.

Even if we take say 75% of grand parents owning their own home. That means there is only a 0.4% chance that none of the four pairs of grand parents own.


With UK born women only having 1.75 kids and with 75% of pensioners owning their own home that means the native population is shrinking and they will be gifted a lot of housing wealth from their grand parents and parents. Plus a lot of non housing wealth

economic

Are you sure bag of wind won't think you made up the 96% probability of at least one of the sets of grandparents owning? As we all know his maths is a little rusty....

economic

All of course true only if no radical change in inheritance tax in the future.....