Ownership amongst the young

GreatApe

Crashy_Time wrote: »

Housing Benefit doesn`t do mortgages, how many times do I have to spell it out?

Many more times because I fail to see !!!!!! that has to do with this discussion

A_Medium_Size_Jock

GreatApe wrote: »

Right now its about 20% private rental however recent migrants disproportionately rent. Which is why we have seen renting boom from 2004 onwards. The natives have probably shrunk in number yet the overall population has boomed. A lot of the additional demand for rentals is from migrants that have come over the last 15 years.

Quite so.

From Migration Observatory figures, around 3 million new immigrants arrived in the UK between 2005 and 2015 (IMHO a conservative estimate & the real number is almost certainly higher).
Even at ten per residence that is 300,000 houses required.
Rented since a very, very small percentage would be purchased IMHO.
Now do you begin to see why the percentage of rental properties has increased?

GarthThomas

Carl31 wrote: »

its iphones, its car finance, its credit cards, its those funny smoky pens, and xboxes and play stations and pot noodles and subways

Its everything young people do, because they are wrong and not as clever as old people who grew up in post war britain, living in orange boxes and eating their old socks or whatever they did

You have to admit, though, everyone today "deserves" more than they did thirty years ago, from foreign holidays, to a car, to a computer at home and another one in your pocket.

If you are my age then it just means you save a bit less for your old age, or have a smaller emergency fund. If you are up in your twenties it can make the difference between saving three hundred pounds a month and saving nothing, turning a five year plan for a deposit into a pipe dream.

Twenty five years ago when I was starting working I did not have a computer at home, I "holidayed" by not going to work, and just wandering around town, and I ran an old morptorbike that Imhad to fix myself most weekends. I never ate out, never flew anywhere, and just about never got the train. I definitely didn't have a car.

This was normal, and my parents were doing the same.

chucknorris

Crashy_Time wrote: »

Maybe Chuck can post links to the cars he has sold over the years, or have they been "lost" as well

Post links, are you kidding? The last one I sold was a 10 year old Mondeo for £225, why on earth would I keep a link to the transaction? When it has no bearing on CGT and is a tiny financial matter, are you mad? Oops sorry, of course you are, my bad.

I'll probably be selling a 10 year old Zafira (bought for £8,666 at 8 months old in a car supermarket) next year, do you want to be updated? Can't imagine why! Cars are consumables, they are not investments, so they are of no consequence to me.

GarthThomas

chucknorris wrote: »

why do people spend so much on cars?

Why do people prefer beautiful women over ugly ones? Why do people eat steak when cheap mince has the same nutrients? Why do people drink nice wine whe Diamond a white cider has all the same things in it?

People do these things because they enjoy them. I've had some very nice cars down the years, and they've brought me a lot of pleasure. If me and my friends want to drive through the Alps to Antibes, then a nice car makes the whole trip more fun, and more memorable. Any drive in a great car can be better than the same drive in a basic one.

I also have friends who have made a good contribution to their pension through buying the right car. Two bought McLaren F1s before the prices went crazy, and have made eight figure profits on them, while also getting to drive them when they want.

GreatApe

Windofchange wrote: »

So the considered view of this forum seems to be that it is simply that the young waste their money on things and don't want to save for a house deposit? I can certainly accept that there are things that the young do now that was different to times gone by - university, travelling, putting marriage on hold etc, but we're not talking about a small drop in home ownership. It's a seismic shift.

Renting is a temporary tenure. We need private renting else the only choice is to buy straight away when you leave home at 18. That is not desirable or possible.

Then it raises the question well what amount of the housing stock is needed for rentals to allow people who need to rent to do so temporarily.

In my own case it looks as though I would have privately rented for 13% of my adult life. And I may rent again who knows (something like 100,000 owners sell up and become renters each year through choice and the average tenure length for private rentals is about 5 years so half a million of the 5 million renters should not even count as they have owned already)

I would say we need 15% of homes as private rentals to meet the needs of transitional renters. Well we are at 20% which is higher than the min needed but it's not a whole world of difference especially when you consider maybe 5 million additional migrants over the last 15 years and recent migrants primarily rent (75% of migrants here for 0-5 years rent privately).

There is no housing crisis. Housing is free for a lot of UK born Brits. 80% will inherit a house. >90% wipp get at least half a house. Only about 5% won't inherit a house. Of course those who get gifts and help and Inheritances don't start a forum to tell the world about it. The 5% who get nothing start hpc forums and complain that they can't buy a house for prices of 20 years ago.

And yes I do feel sorry for these people but it really is a glass 90% full 10% empty problem.

One possible solution would be to help the poor by gifting the social stock. That helps them and it helps their kids. No one shoot me down for it its just a thought not something I've spent years thinking through. On the fave of it I would not object to the government giving a up to £150k discount or 95% discount whichever is lower.

Oddly its the left that cry about right to buy. Help the poor and their kids and you are a mean right wing !!!!!!. Don't help them and make it harder by removing RTB and you are a kind left wing superhero. What gives?

chucknorris

GarthThomas wrote: »

Why do people prefer beautiful women over ugly ones? Why do people eat steak when cheap mince has the same nutrients? Why do people drink nice wine whe Diamond a white cider has all the same things in it?

People do these things because they enjoy them. I've had some very nice cars down the years, and they've brought me a lot of pleasure. If me and my friends want to drive through the Alps to Antibes, then a nice car makes the whole trip more fun, and more memorable. Any drive in a great car can be better than the same drive in a basic one.

I also have friends who have made a good contribution to their pension through buying the right car. Two bought McLaren F1s before the prices went crazy, and have made eight figure profits on them, while also getting to drive them when they want.

Fair enough, but why do people buy expensive cars then complain that they can't afford better property, it is a question of priority! That is the point that you are missing! I obviously wasn't aiming my post at people who were happy with their financial outcome.

Edit: We will be upgrading next year, to something between £25 and £30k, but it will still be (mostly) functional, two things are pushing this, we need to somehow spend it all (before we die), and we need something that will tow a decent caravan (which we will also be buying).

GreatApe

A_Medium_Size_Jock wrote: »

Quite so.

From Migration Observatory figures, around 3 million new immigrants arrived in the UK between 2005 and 2015 (IMHO a conservative estimate & the real number is almost certainly higher).
Even at ten per residence that is 300,000 houses required.
Rented since a very, very small percentage would be purchased IMHO.
Now do you begin to see why the percentage of rental properties has increased?

I must admit I did not fully appreciate the scale of migrants renting. I knew it as a gut feeling its just obvious that many of them rent but I wouldn't have been able to say that 75% of them rent vs closer to 15% for the native population.

Even of the 25% that do not rent I suspect many of them moved into their friends/relatives owned/social homes so in effect they are also 'hidden' renters

Just looking at the migrants from 2012-2017 a period of 5 years something like 3 million have arrived. Renters live at almost the same density as owners at 2.35 persons per home. They require 1.3 million homes and since 75% of them rent that means almost 1 million rentals were needed just for the migrants that arrives 2012-2017

As the native population shrinks (1.75 children per women for UK born women, plus annually -100,000 Brits leaving the UK) and is replaced by first generation migrants we will see more renting and less owning. This is almost irrespective of house prices which is why renting has boomed even in the cheapest towns in the cheapest regions.

That is a point the crash cheerleaders can not explain. Why has renting increased in Middleborough? Cheap house prices lower than they were a decade ago (1/3rd down in real terms) and a city falling in population yet renting has increased. The answer is migrants

Thrugelmir

Conrad wrote: »

The 2008 tightening of mortgage regulations did not help. I warned about the effects this would have on capacity to own, but I got bored, no one was interested.

Years of lax lending allowed prices to get out of control. The tightening actually started a long time later. By then the horse had bolted. Now we have ultra low interest rates to stop the level of defaults rising. A crash only requires 10-15% of property on sale to fall suddenly in value to trigger an avalanche.

GreatApe

chucknorris wrote: »

Fair enough, but why do people buy expensive cars then complain that they can't afford better property, it is a question of priority! That is the point that you are missing! I obviously wasn't aiming my post at people who were happy with their financial outcome.

Edit: We will be upgrading next year, to something between £25 and £30k, but it will still be (mostly) functional, two things are pushing this, we need to somehow spend it all (before we die), and we need something that will tow a decent caravan (which we will also be buying).

Do you think you might have left it a bit too late?

I don't see how I could spend a couple of million over just 20 years. That's something like £150k a year.

Even if I purchased a new car every 3 years and went on 4 holidays a year and went out for breakfast lunch and dinner 365 days a year and bought expensive cloths I don't see how I could spend more than £50k a year. Even that would seem like work rather than enjoying yourself as often just sitting at home doing nowt or just going for a walk is the most comfortable of ways to pass a day and that costs little to nothing.