Has the market peaked?

economic

Graham_Devon wrote: »

That translates to £700 extra a year for someone working 37 hours a week on minimum wage.

You appear to be making out this £700 will fuel the housing market.

I suggest a re-think.

i cant speak for greatApe but i imagine the rise in minimum wage would translate into more rising rents and therefore BTL becomes more attractive driving up house prices.

Graham_Devon

economic wrote: »

i cant speak for greatApe but i imagine the rise in minimum wage would translate into more rising rents and therefore BTL becomes more attractive driving up house prices.

If you say so.

You do realise if fuel prices hit £1.50 again, a third of that £700 increase will be wiped out just by that one single item? (and that's for someone who only fills up their tank once a month, the average driver fills up twice a month, 2 3rd's gone).

Not trying to be negative, just surprised you guys are getting quite so excited and forecasting an increase in house prices based on such tiny amounts over a full year.

And for the record, I'm pretty convinced you can speak for great ape and are about to do just that.

GreatApe

economic wrote: »

the 10y+ average lease length argument would depends on where we are left on the remaining lease lengths in the REIT. if the leases were up for renewel / rent review soon, then this could have a big impact on the income and therefore yield/price.

specially given its shopping centres and we all know retail isnt doing too great. (depends where they are located).

I am not so sure I agree, retail seems to be doing just fine in my local shopping centre.

While websites might be taking some business away from brick store retailers the fact is the population of the uk and especially the south is increasing. There is also a continual shift in retail to leisure and catering. For instance in my local centre they have moved some of the stores around and made a food hall which seems to be doing very well. So even if the likes of BHS have gone kaput some other retailer has taken its place.

Worse case even if all retails went bust, of course that wont happen for obvious reasons, these centers tend to be in the middle of busy towns and cities so the land itself has value for redevelopment into homes/flats/offices/etc. This can even be done without getting rid of the shopping center for instance Walthamstow shopping center is planning to redevelop and add 2,000 flats on its site plus other bits and bobs. The land is valuable and house prices have gone up enough so they can do this at a decent profit.

GreatApe

Graham_Devon wrote: »

If you say so.

You do realise if fuel prices hit £1.50 again, a third of that £700 increase will be wiped out just by that one single item? (and that's for someone who only fills up their tank once a month, the average driver fills up twice a month, 2 3rd's gone).

Not trying to be negative, just surprised you guys are getting quite so excited and forecasting an increase in house prices based on such tiny amounts over a full year.

And for the record, I'm pretty convinced you can speak for great ape and are about to do just that.

I dont think the min wage movement is going to do much of anything to house prices because most people are not on the minimum wage. But since a lot of the crash wishers seem to insist everything is !!!! and everyone is poor I though just talk about min wage to talk their language.

Someone who expects house prices to fall say 1/3rd, and knows the min wage is going up 20% said person expects house prices to fall 45% relative to min wage. Not going to happen

GreatApe

Graham_Devon wrote: »

That translates to £700 extra a year for someone working 37 hours a week on minimum wage.

You appear to be making out this £700 will fuel the housing market. :undecided

I suggest a re-think. (and no, I don't mean a re-think by assuming 3 people who all work 780 hours week and club together to buy a house will now be millionaires).

£1.50 per hour increase x 37 hours a week x 52 weeks a year = £2,886 a year extra

Where the poop did you get £700 a year extra?

If It is a couple that is £5,772 a year extra. x 4.5 on a mortgage and it goes to being able to bid £26k more in 2020 than they can bid today in 2017. That is not insignificant. It will impact some areas where house prices are already cheap like the north midlands wales etc

Graham_Devon

So you've said it won't impact the market, and then followed up by there will be a significant impact.

You'll figure out where the £700 came from if you really think about it and don't focus on what a wage over a number of years actually means.

GreatApe

Graham_Devon wrote: »

So you've said it won't impact the market, and then followed up by there will be a significant impact.

You'll figure out where the £700 came from if you really think about it and don't focus on what a wage over a number of years actually means.

It wont impact the housing market, it will impact the individuals on min wage

In short I do not see house prices going down much or going up much in the next 3 years. That is my base guess

ukcarper

GreatApe wrote: »

It wont impact the housing market, it will impact the individuals on min wage

In short I do not see house prices going down much or going up much in the next 3 years. That is my base guess

That's all anybody can do guess, prices seem to have stabilised where I am with properties selling for similar prices to last year, but what is going to happen next is anybody's guess.

economic

GreatApe wrote: »

It wont impact the housing market, it will impact the individuals on min wage

In short I do not see house prices going down much or going up much in the next 3 years. That is my base guess

id agree. could see some falls in london though.

mforr64

The minimum wage will not be £9 in 2020 if you read the Tory manifesto.