Has the market peaked?

GreatApe

Given enough time everything will fall in value to zero. (If for no other reason than that the universe itself only has a finite life). So technically could we say every investment is a ponzi scam?

If people want to accumulated wealth they have to have savings in something. Like most the public I do have a mistrust of the stock market. It is probably illogical and wrong but most people in life don't understand or trust stocks and shares.

Anyway the choice is only cash (or cash derivatives) shares or property. I have enough property investment so its down to cash or shares. More importantly it's tax free shares or heavily taxed cash.

I think almost certainly I will fill up my ISA going forward. Pensions I am not 100% sure about. Although right now it seems a very good way to invest I wonder if in 25 years when I come to possibly draw down will taxes be Much higher. Pension investments look good now but won't look good if the higher brackets income tax is increases grealy or if they change the rules so pensions form part of an estate therefore attracting IHT

another option is developing a plot of land I own. Got planning permission in 2007 but wasn't really viable or worthwhile then. With higher london prices it probably is now. So I will look into that too. Added bonus is such investment also adds to GDP and pays people wages while buying shares or paying down debt don't.

economic

GreatApe wrote: »

Given enough time everything will fall in value to zero. (If for no other reason than that the universe itself only has a finite life). So technically could we say every investment is a ponzi scam?

If people want to accumulated wealth they have to have savings in something. Like most the public I do have a mistrust of the stock market. It is probably illogical and wrong but most people in life don't understand or trust stocks and shares.

Anyway the choice is only cash (or cash derivatives) shares or property. I have enough property investment so its down to cash or shares. More importantly it's tax free shares or heavily taxed cash.

I think almost certainly I will fill up my ISA going forward. Pensions I am not 100% sure about. Although right now it seems a very good way to invest I wonder if in 25 years when I come to possibly draw down will taxes be Much higher. Pension investments look good now but won't look good if the higher brackets income tax is increases grealy or if they change the rules so pensions form part of an estate therefore attracting IHT

another option is developing a plot of land I own. Got planning permission in 2007 but wasn't really viable or worthwhile then. With higher london prices it probably is now. So I will look into that too. Added bonus is such investment also adds to GDP and pays people wages while buying shares or paying down debt don't.

how did you get the plot of land? did you buy it? i would definately look into that as i imagine depending where it is you can make quite a bit on it. maybe you can have another BTL.

i would also look to invest the cash in stocks but of course you may need some cash for the development project. i agree that ISAs seem better then pension as at least you dont have the tax uncertainty with pensions when it comes time to withdraw. however who knows they could change the tax rules with ISAs to make it less than tax free?

the fact that the public mistrust the stock market is actually quite bullish for stocks. there will be a point when the public start to buy and thats when it will be close to selling.

GreatApe

economic wrote: »

how did you get the plot of land? did you buy it?

Yes I bought a house that had planning permission for the double garage to be rebuilt as a new end of terrace a good size 120sqm one at that. As far as I could tell there was no premium being asked for this and neither the agent or seller advertised the fact that it had Planning permission. I purchased with the idea that getting PP would be a bonus and part way in the buying process I had a look online and found out the council had granted PP already but the owner had done nothing with it.

The only negative however is that building a house next door will devalue the existing house somewhat as the existing house goes from a end of terrace with a large garden and a double garage to just a standard terrace. The council also wants its multiple pounds of flesh in the form of CIL payments and S106 contributions etc.

I have not put much thinking into that project its just there and an option for the future. I really should calculate/guess if it makes sense doing this sooner or later. I have a second plot of land too which should be good for 1 house or 2 flats but again it somewhat devalues the existing house. All on my to do list but I never seem to quite get around to it.

i agree that ISAs seem better then pension as at least you dont have the tax uncertainty with pensions when it comes time to withdraw. however who knows they could change the tax rules with ISAs to make it less than tax free?

At most they could just remove the tax free wrapper with ISAs so it is removing a perk. With pensions the marginal rate of income tax in 2050 might be crazy high so it wont be just removing a perk it could be screwing you.

GreatApe

chucknorris wrote: »

I've just invested all my ISA and SIPP (plus a £10k top up to my SIPP) in British Land at just under 640. I'm quite pleased, even if the price drops, the yield was/is my focus, and they have already declared June's dividend will be 7.30p.

I usually avoid single company shares, but as you say they look a safe bet. Investing in commercial property brings some much needed diversity to my portfolio.

618p today, I am tempted to top up what do you think Mr Norris?

As of current price effective dividend 4.78%

With view of holding for 30 years or selling out if share price gets towards 90-100% of NAV

Herzlos

GreatApe wrote: »

Got planning permission in 2007 but wasn't really viable or worthwhile then.

Doesn't planning permission only last 3 years? In which case, you'd be starting from scratch and the goalposts might have moved. Having got permission before probably makes it a bit easier, though.

chucknorris

GreatApe wrote: »

618p today, I am tempted to top up what do you think Mr Norris?

As of current price effective dividend 4.78%

With view of holding for 30 years or selling out if share price gets towards 90-100% of NAV

Think about how much you want to invest, I've realised that single company shares are just a bit too volatile for me, I wouldn't put you off, but I am probably going to sell at least a significant part of my holding if they go North of £6.43. I did buy for dividends, so I am not disheartened by the price, but I don't like the volatility.

economic

UK shares have been underperforming recently i guess due to the political situation at the moment with brexit, DUP etc.

If you were to buy now, expect some volatility and to hold for a few years as thats how long itll take most likely to make a decent return out of it.

I have a fairly small size position in it relative to overall portfolio. i have recently added to healthcare/biotech which looks to be rally a lot now - probably a good place to put your money in as i expect it to continue.

economic

i hold some US bank shares - i am thinking of selling these all and waiting for a dip in these. im still bullish but i feel there is a correction coming in these shares. it will also enable me to buy in my USD trading account so i save on ridiculous FX fees.

the problem is, when i sell, what do i buy???

GreatApe

chucknorris wrote: »

Think about how much you want to invest, I've realised that single company shares are just a bit too volatile for me, I wouldn't put you off, but I am probably going to sell at least a significant part of my holding if they go North of £6.43. I did buy for dividends, so I am not disheartened by the price, but I don't like the volatility.

I try hard to resist 'trading' as that must be a loss rather than a gain long term (0.5% stamp tax + spread + selling/buying commission). As a ballpark I think you are guaranteed to lose 0.6% each time you move.

I did not add today but if the shares go to 605p I think I will double up. At that price point its a 4.88% dividend share (taking into account how close the next divi payment is). I will keep what I have + the additional shares if it goes towards 605p for 30 years unless the share goes towards 95% of its book NAV.

economic

ive still got a 100k or so to invest. thinking of just putting this into US shares. outside of this i have a fairly significant stock portfolio and also manage my parents stock ISAs (mainly in uk div stocks).