Has the market peaked?

thepurplepixie

padington wrote: »

The roads will be able to cope. Google 'Tony Seba'.

The cities are going to enjoy a clean automated revolution, in just 13 years and their allure will increase heavily.

I don't live in a city, I live on the south coast, fairly small town which is like a cul de sac so more and more traffic pouring in and due to coast, river, and only one main road in and out means chaos. Traffic is almost at a standstill now, particularly in summer season, and fairly minor roadworks or accidents can cause traffic jams that last for hours.

Crashy_Time

padington wrote: »

Who needs to sell, interest rates are lowest for hundreds of years and rents are the highest in the known universe.

Rents in London are falling, as you know, and interest rates have nothing to do with really "needing to sell", again as you know. The fact that many many people CAN`T sell, even with the miracle of super low rates tells us all we need to know. If you have a fixed rate, and rates go up, all that happens is that the next buyer has to pay more for their debt to buy you out, meaning they will want a price discount for the privilege.

GreatApe

Crashy_Time wrote: »

Rents in London are falling, as you know, and interest rates have nothing to do with really "needing to sell", again as you know. The fact that many many people CAN`T sell, even with the miracle of super low rates tells us all we need to know. If you have a fixed rate, and rates go up, all that happens is that the next buyer has to pay more for their debt to buy you out, meaning they will want a price discount for the privilege.

The minimum wage is going up 20% by 2020 to become £9ph

Why do you think house prices are going to fall when wages are going to go up 20%?

Even if prices are due to correct its better buying now thank risk it waiting. Interest rates are so cheap that over a five year period you need a 15% crash just to stand still.

Demand for housing is going to keep going up as demand for single person households just continues to increase.

Like I've said before someone needs to invent house price crash insurance to save fools from themselves. £5k to cover a 5 year period. If house prices fall more than 15% during the 5 year period the insurance pays out the difference. Would be like taking candy from a crash cheer leading baby.

wotsthat

GreatApe wrote: »

Like I've said before someone needs to invent house price crash insurance to save fools from themselves. £5k to cover a 5 year period. If house prices fall more than 15% during the 5 year period the insurance pays out the difference. Would be like taking candy from a crash cheer leading baby.

There's already such a product for the fearful - it's called rent.

It's been an expensive product over the last few years given the appreciation in house prices and the dirt cheap debt available to buy one.

Can't do it for them I suppose.

westernpromise

Crashy_Time wrote: »

Rents in London are falling, as you know

No they aren't.

Main points

• Private rental prices paid by tenants in Great Britain rose by 1.8% in the 12 months to April 2017; this is down from 2.0% in March 2017.
• In England, private rental prices grew by 2.0%, Wales saw growth of 0.7% while Scotland saw zero growth in the 12 months to April 2017.
• London private rental prices grew by 1.4% in the 12 months to April 2017, 0.4 percentage points below the Great Britain 12-month growth rate.

https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/inflationandpriceindices/bulletins/indexofprivatehousingrentalprices/apr2017

If you have a fixed rate, and rates go up, all that happens is that the next buyer has to pay more for their debt to buy you out, meaning they will want a price discount for the privilege.

You've painted yourself into the corner of always believing that prices are about to fall. In your above scenario, if someone had a fixed rate and rates went down, you'd then argue that they'd want a discount because the next move in rates after that would have to be up.

VfM4meplse

westernpromise wrote: »

You've painted yourself into the corner of always believing that prices are about to fall. In your above scenario, if someone had a fixed rate and rates went down, you'd then argue that they'd want a discount because the next move in rates after that would have to be up.

Cognitive dissonance in action. Its up there with being devoted to Nostradamus' prophecies.

chucknorris

GreatApe wrote: »

The minimum wage is going up 20% by 2020 to become £9ph

Why do you think house prices are going to fall when wages are going to go up 20%?

Even if prices are due to correct its better buying now thank risk it waiting. Interest rates are so cheap that over a five year period you need a 15% crash just to stand still.

Demand for housing is going to keep going up as demand for single person households just continues to increase.

Like I've said before someone needs to invent house price crash insurance to save fools from themselves. £5k to cover a 5 year period. If house prices fall more than 15% during the 5 year period the insurance pays out the difference. Would be like taking candy from a crash cheer leading baby.

Do you have an opinion about this:

http://www.hl.co.uk/shares/ipos-and-new-issues/aew-uk-long-lease-reit-plc-launch?utm_source=Silverpop&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=EI263_Last%20chance%20-%20AEW%20UK%20Long%20Lease%20REIT%20plc%20launch%20closes%20tomorrow%20(1)&utm_content=button&theSource=EI263&Override=1&sp_mid=54167366&sp_rid=c3RldmV0b2RkMUB5YWhvby5jby51awS2#

GreatApe

chucknorris wrote: »

Do you have an opinion about this:

http://www.hl.co.uk/shares/ipos-and-new-issues/aew-uk-long-lease-reit-plc-launch?utm_source=Silverpop&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=EI263_Last%20chance%20-%20AEW%20UK%20Long%20Lease%20REIT%20plc%20launch%20closes%20tomorrow%20(1)&utm_content=button&theSource=EI263&Override=1&sp_mid=54167366&sp_rid=c3RldmV0b2RkMUB5YWhvby5jby51awS2#

I've not seen it before but having a quick read it would not interest me

What are they offering above and beyond say British Land or Land Securities or one of the other larger REITs? The difference seems to be a promises to try and provide 5.5% dividend (compared to 4.5 to 5% for REITS like BL and INTU) but as their own documents say

' Shares may trade at a discount to NAV per share and shareholders may be unable to realize their investments through the secondary market at NAV per share.'

This seems likely as a lot of the large UK Reits are trading at below NAT right now.
So put in £1 a share and see it fall to 80p a share within a few months is too big a risk I think just to try and obtain another 0.5-1% in dividend returns (if they happen at all)

If I was after high dividends in a REIT I think I would consider British Land and also Capital & Regional. The latter currently has a 5.8% Dividend Yield and that should be quite stable as its a company invested mostly in shopping centers and they tend to have average lease lengths of 10+ years and also some element of monopoly status in that councils typically are not interested in allowing a second shopping center in their area. It would seem less risk buying C&L at 5.8% with a history and up and running right now than to go with this new venture.

But dont take this as strong advice its just 10 minutes having a think about it

What is missing in the UK are pure geared residential REITs. If someone was offering a geared London REIT at 5% that would interest me. I would not have become a landlord if there was such a reit I would just have purchased said shares in a pension or ISA. Its silly that there are two million individual landlords owning 5 million private rentals but no company doing it on scale and publicly listed. There is clearly massive demand for it as shown by the huge scale of capital in residential rentals.

economic

GreatApe wrote: »

If I was after high dividends in a REIT I think I would consider British Land and also Capital & Regional. The latter currently has a 5.8% Dividend Yield and that should be quite stable as its a company invested mostly in shopping centers and they tend to have average lease lengths of 10+ years and also some element of monopoly status in that councils typically are not interested in allowing a second shopping center in their area. It would seem less risk buying C&L at 5.8% with a history and up and running right now than to go with this new venture.

the 10y+ average lease length argument would depends on where we are left on the remaining lease lengths in the REIT. if the leases were up for renewel / rent review soon, then this could have a big impact on the income and therefore yield/price.

specially given its shopping centres and we all know retail isnt doing too great. (depends where they are located).

Graham_Devon

GreatApe wrote: »

The minimum wage is going up 20% by 2020 to become £9ph

Why do you think house prices are going to fall when wages are going to go up 20%?

That translates to £700 extra a year for someone working 37 hours a week on minimum wage.

You appear to be making out this £700 will fuel the housing market. :undecided

I suggest a re-think. (and no, I don't mean a re-think by assuming 3 people who all work 780 hours week and club together to buy a house will now be millionaires).