UK Affordability still very good

ukcarper

This thread is developing the same as the others GreatApe over egging it one while others over egg it the other way.

ukcarper

Although median full time income for London is £36k the median household for London was £40k in 2013.

If you have to get a 90% or 95% you won't get such favourable rates.

Graham_Devon

Windofchange wrote: »

Seeing as you never open / read articles to inform yourself, I have summarised the key points. All recent.

Shelter / BBC - March 2017

"Nearly eight out of 10 families across England are unable to afford newly built homes in their local area, a report by housing charity Shelter says. Its research shows rising house prices hitting all parts of the country, not just London and the south-east."

AND

"It said the problem was worst in the West Midlands, where 93% of privately renting, working families could not afford to buy a newly built home, even if they used the government's Help to Buy scheme."

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/education-39128037

FROM THE ONS - March 2017

"The median price paid for residential property in England and Wales increased by 259% between 1997 and 2016; median individual annual earnings increased by 68% in the same time period."

"On average, working people could expect to pay around 7.6 times their annual earnings on purchasing a home in England and Wales in 2016, up from 3.6 times earnings in 1997."

https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/housing/bulletins/housingaffordabilityinenglandandwales/1997to2016

Money wise - Feb 2017

"Despite Londoners having an average wage of £34,000 a year – the highest average earnings in the country – the average house costs £563,041, which is double the national average and 16.6 times more than the typical London salary."

http://www.moneywise.co.uk/news/2017-02-06/house-prices-unaffordable-london-s-buyers-and-renters

City AM - April 2017

"In 87 per cent of cases (Local Authorities) across England, Scotland and Wales, house prices were more than five times average salaries."

http://www.cityam.com/262960/uk-house-prices-unattainable-no-not-just-london-most

Comment regarding the above on how UK affordability is still very good?

The general concensus among those that follow greatapes theory is that these people simply don't save enough or don't work enough.

And they include people with children. And include people who can't simply wave a magic wand and pull 5 jobs out of their arris, which they travel to on vapour fuelled transport (which never breaks down) while living with their parents and eat dripping on stale bread each night. They also don't have access to the magic bank who will simply lend these high risk people whatever income multiple they happen to want.

Windofchange

Don't forget as well that they need a 30 year mortgage on historically low interest rates, and also need to magic up a 20% deposit. Then if they don't have children, don't have a car, don't have to pay for any expenses, never go out, scrimp and save every last penny - oh and both have to be in full-time employment mind, none of this part time malarky.

Did we forget to exclude anything?

Oh yeah, they can't have a phone contract and mustn't be Bulgarian.

Yup, look, see, everywhere is cheap / affordable. Job done.

GreatApe

Windofchange wrote: »

Don't forget as well that they need a 30 year mortgage on historically low interest rates, and also need to magic up a 20% deposit. Then if they don't have children, don't have a car, don't have to pay for any expenses, never go out, scrimp and save every last penny - oh and both have to be in full-time employment mind, none of this part time malarky.

Did we forget to exclude anything?

Oh yeah, they can't have a phone contract and mustn't be Bulgarian.

Yup, look, see, everywhere is cheap / affordable. Job done.

For all your cries of unaffordability and how difficult things are, in the 2011 census 85% of the people in the UK did not live in private renting. And seeing as migrants disproportionately represent the private rental sector its even better for the UK born British.

WengerIn

In addition in the 'V Affordable' South West you are expecting people to borrow 7.64x income and in the 'Very Cheap' West Midlands you are expecting people to borrow 5.36x income once they have got a 20% deposit together.

In Barking and Dagenham you are expecting people to borrow 8.5x income! If that's what Very Affordable looks like I'd hate to see what looks expensive to you. To be charitable it's a massive punt on interest rates being at an all-time low for an extremely long time. At a 5% mortgage rate, so about 3% base rates if you're on a decent variable rate mortgage, our friend in Dagenham is paying out over 60% of her income in mortgage payments.

On the theme of getting a deposit together, the median rent for a one bedder in Dagenham is £899 on which the council tax will be £200 a month. Add in £20 a month for a phone and and £160 a month for fares and your mate is taking home less than a grand. Then there's £20 for water a month, £38 for gas and £30 for electricity and our hero has £883 a month left. So if she never eats, goes out, buys clothes, uses detergent, gets a hair cut, uses a tampon, takes a holiday, watches TV, uses the internet at home, buys furniture, has sex (nothing in there for contraception), drinks anything but water, gets sick or buys anyone a present then in five and a half years she has a deposit on a two bedroom flat in the very cheapest part of London. Does the V stand for something other than 'Very'?

Doubling the male median income to get couple median income is pretty bloody heroic too unless you have solved the gender pay gap with a spreadsheet. Oh and household median income is absolutely nothing like twice the male median income. In Barking and Dagenham the median household income was £29,420 in 2015.

https://data.london.gov.uk/apps_and_analysis/gla-household-income-estimates/

Apart from all that I think we can say that you've not only solved the gender pay gap but also proved housing is affordable. As long as you don't actually try to buy a house.

Windofchange

GreatApe wrote: »

For all your cries of unaffordability and how difficult things are, in the 2011 census 85% of the people in the UK did not live in private renting. And seeing as migrants disproportionately represent the private rental sector its even better for the UK born British.

So, there's none in social housing? None being put up by the council in a bed sit? None on the streets? Again, any comments on the articles and figures I posted above or are you just going to your default position of let's exclude a huge chunk of people and claim you've made some sort of point? Nobody agrees with you and even the more tolerant people on here have got tired.

Wanna dive into some actual figures as per above? Do you want to tell me why home ownership is falling off a cliff across the board? How the 16 million people with no savings are all just lazy and don't want to save?

How ironic you go on about confirmation bias every other post.

WengerIn

First time buyer numbers:

http://www.neighbourhood.statistics.gov.uk/HTMLDocs/dvc336/House_Chart2/House_Chart2.html

A woman that can't afford a house:



Note the iPhone and take away coffee.

The same woman in 40 years time:

ukcarper

WengerIn wrote: »

In addition in the 'V Affordable' South West you are expecting people to borrow 7.64x income and in the 'Very Cheap' West Midlands you are expecting people to borrow 5.36x income once they have got a 20% deposit together.

In Barking and Dagenham you are expecting people to borrow 8.5x income! If that's what Very Affordable looks like I'd hate to see what looks expensive to you. To be charitable it's a massive punt on interest rates being at an all-time low for an extremely long time. At a 5% mortgage rate, so about 3% base rates if you're on a decent variable rate mortgage, our friend in Dagenham is paying out over 60% of her income in mortgage payments.

On the theme of getting a deposit together, the median rent for a one bedder in Dagenham is £899 on which the council tax will be £200 a month. Add in £20 a month for a phone and and £160 a month for fares and your mate is taking home less than a grand. Then there's £20 for water a month, £38 for gas and £30 for electricity and our hero has £883 a month left. So if she never eats, goes out, buys clothes, uses detergent, gets a hair cut, uses a tampon, takes a holiday, watches TV, uses the internet at home, buys furniture, has sex (nothing in there for contraception), drinks anything but water, gets sick or buys anyone a present then in five and a half years she has a deposit on a two bedroom flat in the very cheapest part of London. Does the V stand for something other than 'Very'?

Doubling the male median income to get couple median income is pretty bloody heroic too unless you have solved the gender pay gap with a spreadsheet. Oh and household median income is absolutely nothing like twice the male median income. In Barking and Dagenham the median household income was £29,420 in 2015.

https://data.london.gov.uk/apps_and_analysis/gla-household-income-estimates/

Apart from all that I think we can say that you've not only solved the gender pay gap but also proved housing is affordable. As long as you don't actually try to buy a house.

Your post is an example of over egging it the other way, if people are serious about getting a property they should not be renting a flat on thier own with all the cost that involves and £833 leaves a lot of scope for saving.

You can rent a room in Dagenham for less that £600 a month including bills.

Graham_Devon

ukcarper wrote: »

You can rent a room in Dagenham for less that £600 a month including bills.

A room? £600 per month?

Kind of shows just how crazy things have got. We don't tend to notice as it creeps in like this. But 30 years ago, if you'd said to anyone it would cost you £600 per month to rent a room in a suburb of London they wouldn't have believed you and would probably have said something about 3rd world countries.

£600 for a room is now seen as OK and, it seems, somewhat "cheap".