£194,400 minimum wage

GreatApe

Windofchange wrote: »

"For example in 2015 the real hourly wages for female UK-born and foreign-born were £12.4 and £12.5 respectively, while those for the male UK-born and foreign-born were respectively £15.3 and £14.8."

As per usual you have cherry picked a figure to suit your argument.

You stated above that:



Given that as a group of people, immigrants earn pretty much to the penny what UK nationals do, what is your argument? I might as well compare a French banker living in London on £3 million a year with a UK school leaver cleaning toilets. It's basically what you have done.

If migrants and UK nationals earn roughly the same, how is falling home ownership to do with that?

2011 cencus

https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/populationandmigration/internationalmigration/articles/2011censusanalysissocialandeconomiccharacteristicsbylengthofresidenceofmigrantpopulationsinenglandandwales/2014-11-04

Table 7

72.9% of recent arrivals (here 0-5 years) rent privately
50.9% of recent arrives (here 5-10 years) rent privately
UK born 14.7% rent privately

:beer::beer::beer:

Windofchange

I can accept that immigration will have some sort of impact. Of course it will - if we have one migrant come over then they will either buy or rent and then that will contribute to the figures.

Will you accept that sweeping statements such as those you have made above are flawed?

GreatApe

Windofchange wrote: »

I can accept that immigration will have some sort of impact. Of course it will - if we have one migrant come over then they will either buy or rent and then that will contribute to the figures.

Will you accept that sweeping statements such as those you have made above are flawed?

:rotfl:

:beer:

GreatApe

I think about 1.5 million of the increase in renting over the decade is purely down to migration.

Estimates and calculation

Approx 6 million gross inward migration over the decade of which 61.9% rent privately = 3.7 million

Average rental is about 2.4 persons per property = 1.55 million additional private rentals due to the migration over the last 10 years

about 3.7 million units were rented privately in 2007 now its estimated to be about 5.5 million or a growth of about 1.8 million

Simply put almost all (86%) of the additional renting is down to gross immigration over the decade

I reckon I deserve a MSE version of a nobel for this, and my gut knew it before I investigated it.

Ownership of the natives is not down! well only very slightly!

Windofchange

GreatApe wrote: »

:rotfl:

:beer:

Ok. Great answer.

There is a world of difference between saying something will contribute to the figures and your stance of home ownership is falling largely because of immigration. It is clearly far more complex than that, but you are black and white as ever.

Bottom line is home ownership is in decline. Not all immigrants are poor, and actually a large number of them earn very good salaries.

The majority on here seem to want to blame Bulgarians, iPhones, pub dinners, new cars, coffee, tattoos...Yup, if those university leavers hadn't brought an iPhone and got a dolphin tattoo then they'd be sitting counting their money in a £550k flat in Hackney.

Did the swinging 60's and spending your weekly pay cheque on marajuana and an orgie at the weekend stop the boomers becoming home owners? The ONS data speaks volumes - over 65, home ownership growing. The further under 65 you get, dropping off a cliff.

Put whatever spin on it you want.

GreatApe

Windofchange wrote: »

Ok. Great answer.

There is a world of difference between saying something will contribute to the figures and your stance of home ownership is falling largely because of immigration. It is clearly far more complex than that, but you are black and white as ever.

Bottom line is home ownership is in decline. Not all immigrants are poor, and actually a large number of them earn very good salaries.

The majority on here seem to want to blame Bulgarians, iPhones, pub dinners, new cars, coffee, tattoos...Yup, if those university leavers hadn't brought an iPhone and got a dolphin tattoo then they'd be sitting counting their money in a £550k flat in Hackney.

Did the swinging 60's and spending your weekly pay cheque on marajuana and an orgie at the weekend stop the boomers becoming home owners? The ONS data speaks volumes - over 65, home ownership growing. The further under 65 you get, dropping off a cliff.

Put whatever spin on it you want.

Just accept it no one is going to think any less of you clearly 999/1000 people did not know this even on a house price discussion forums and by the looks of it the government is no even aware of this. I knew it instinctively it was but did not investigate until this discussion

The majority of the increase in renting is down to the boom in migrants. Fact. The locals are likely close to peak level of ownership. If 80% of the increase in renting is down to recent migrants only 20% is down to 'locals' So of the fall from ~67.5% ownership to ~63.5% ownership less than 1% point is down to the 'locals'

Cakeguts

Windofchange wrote: »

So, is it iPhones, Bulgarians or new cars? :rotfl:

You can post about median this and affordability that, but the statistics don't back you up.

Home ownership is falling as per the ONS link above.

Mortgage lending is falling:

http://www.propertyreporter.co.uk/finance/gross-mortgage-lending-down-19-year-on-year.html

This isn't hypothesis, these are numbers.

It is mostly car finance. The more you earn the more you can spend on car finance. Buying a car on finance is so much easier than saving up to buy a car and you can show off to your friends your nice new shiny car. Instantly obtainable without any effort or saving. Some young couple will be paying more out on car finance than they would on a mortgage.

davomcdave

GreatApe wrote: »

No you could just not be on minimum wage, you could be a man on the full time median wage

For example. Birmingham full time male wage £30,784
http://www.neighbourhood.statistics.gov.uk/HTMLDocs/dvc126/

4.5 x mortgage plus 20% deposit = £173,000 budget

For that they can buy more than the median house in Birmingham, eg a 3 bedroom semi

http://www.zoopla.co.uk/for-sale/details/43513720?search_identifier=0155efe8c816a5609a42eff70c461ec7#YLGsoOcy8rrr3dk3.97


So in about 7-8 regions the single man full time median wage will buy you more than the median house. So whats the problem?

So take home pay is £24,215. Assumed deposit is £34,600 or almost 1.5x annual income.

So if she saves 10% of her income, or 3x the average savings rate, she takes 15 years to get together a deposit (which would also mean she saves nothing towards a pension or rainy day money). If she manages to save 20%, a pretty heroic 6x the average UK savings rate, she can buy in 7.5 years time.

Even saving half her income means 3 years until she buys.

This is where your assumptions fall down.

economic

davomcdave wrote: »

So take home pay is £24,215. Assumed deposit is £34,600 or almost 1.5x annual income.

So if she saves 10% of her income, or 3x the average savings rate, she takes 15 years to get together a deposit (which would also mean she saves nothing towards a pension or rainy day money). If she manages to save 20%, a pretty heroic 6x the average UK savings rate, she can buy in 7.5 years time.

Even saving half her income means 3 years until she buys.

This is where your assumptions fall down.

then she better make some budget cuts and stop going on holidays, taking coofee out and living on the cheap. LOL. otherwise its simply her fault she cant afford to buy.

Cakeguts

davomcdave wrote: »

So take home pay is £24,215. Assumed deposit is £34,600 or almost 1.5x annual income.

So if she saves 10% of her income, or 3x the average savings rate, she takes 15 years to get together a deposit (which would also mean she saves nothing towards a pension or rainy day money). If she manages to save 20%, a pretty heroic 6x the average UK savings rate, she can buy in 7.5 years time.

Even saving half her income means 3 years until she buys.

This is where your assumptions fall down.

Where do you get the deposit of £34,600 from it seems too high to me. In most of the North of England someone earning minimum wage could buy a house costing less than £75,000. The 10% deposit would only be about £7,500. That should be easy.