£194,400 minimum wage

GreatApe

Windofchange wrote: »

And all this against a backdrop of credit and repayments having never been so cheap. They are talking about the possibility of the first 0.5% mortgage fix and yet ownership is falling.

If you are a Bulgarian who has boarded a bus to London and only have 1 suitcase and 100 Bulgarian Lev (their currency, worth about £40) in your pocket it does not matter if mortgage rates are 0% it does not matter if you land in London (£500,000 house) or Birmingham (£150,000) or Copeland (£100,000) you are going to have to rent

GreatApe

Windofchange wrote: »

So in order to afford to buy you need to be with a partner and at the stage in your relationship where you are buying a house?

No you could just not be on minimum wage, you could be a man on the full time median wage

For example. Birmingham full time male wage £30,784
http://www.neighbourhood.statistics.gov.uk/HTMLDocs/dvc126/

4.5 x mortgage plus 20% deposit = £173,000 budget

For that they can buy more than the median house in Birmingham, eg a 3 bedroom semi

http://www.zoopla.co.uk/for-sale/details/43513720?search_identifier=0155efe8c816a5609a42eff70c461ec7#YLGsoOcy8rrr3dk3.97


So in about 7-8 regions the single man full time median wage will buy you more than the median house. So whats the problem?

Cakeguts

Windofchange wrote: »

So in order to afford to buy you need to be with a partner and at the stage in your relationship where you are buying a house?

If homes are so cheap, why is home ownership falling off a cliff across all but the retired demographic as per charts two and three? Has everyone decided to rent in favour of buying, or are homes increasingly unaffordable?

http://visual.ons.gov.uk/uk-perspectives-2016-housing-and-home-ownership-in-the-uk/

It is mostly caused by car finance. How many really old bangers do you see on the roads these days? There used to be a lot of cars about with different coloured bits where people had replaced a door by going to the local scrap yard and buying a second hand door. I used to have a silver coloured car with a green bonnet where the old bonnet had rusted along the edge. Cars have become cheaper but the finance is what draws a lot of people in. Only £299 a month each is £600 wasted on car finance. You could buy a car for a lot less if you were prepared to a) not feel the need to keep up with your friends and b) not worry about having a second hand car. The problem is that once you have bought a car on finance you can't then save to buy one for cash second hand so you get into the situation of having to finance every car.

I don't know what the actual numbers of people buying houses is but it is quite possible that the actual number of house owners hasn't fallen it is just that the percentage has fallen compared to an increase in population.

In an age where everything is instant and primary school age children are being given smart phones for Christmas so that they don't have to wait until they are older it isn't surprising that there are now young adults who feel that they should get everything they want instantly without putting in any effort to wait and save.

The problem that is coming concerning house building is that if you discourage landlords and if young people are not prepared to save to buy a house the builders will not be able to sell all the new housing and if they can't do that they will not build. If landlords buy a block of flats then the builders get their money and will build more but if the already built new property does not sell there is a problem. The UK needs more housing. Who buys the new housing isn't the problem as long as someone does.

Windofchange

So, is it iPhones, Bulgarians or new cars? :rotfl:

You can post about median this and affordability that, but the statistics don't back you up.

Home ownership is falling as per the ONS link above.

Mortgage lending is falling:

http://www.propertyreporter.co.uk/finance/gross-mortgage-lending-down-19-year-on-year.html

This isn't hypothesis, these are numbers.

Windofchange

GreatApe wrote: »

There are also other reasons too like people starting work and starting true adult lives later and later.

What like 65?

Windofchange

GreatApe wrote: »

its primarily to do with the 4-5 million additional migrants over the last 10 years. They predominantly rent or at lest have a vastly different profile from the natives

As evidence I point to the cheapest towns in our country where renting has also increased.

There are also other reasons too like people starting work and starting true adult lives later and later.

Except you're not right of course

http://www.migrationobservatory.ox.ac.uk/resources/briefings/characteristics-and-outcomes-of-migrants-in-the-uk-labour-market/

Where are the vastly different profiles between migrants and UK nationals? Some 30% of migrants are professional or managerial - pretty much identical to natives as you put it (Figures 5 & 6).

But of course in your head all migrants are Bulgarian shoe shine boys begging for spare change outside the local Waitrose. Do you check anything before posting?

GreatApe

Windofchange wrote: »

Except you're not right of course

http://www.migrationobservatory.ox.ac.uk/resources/briefings/characteristics-and-outcomes-of-migrants-in-the-uk-labour-market/

Where are the vastly different profiles between migrants and UK nationals? Some 30% of migrants are professional or managerial - pretty much identical to natives as you put it (Figure 6).

But of course in your head all migrants are Bulgarian shoe shine boys begging for spare change outside the local Waitrose. Do you check anything before posting?

your link says the A8 men earn on average £9.33 an hour compared to uk born at £15.33 an hour. and it says nothing about their ownership vs renting levels

It is quite easy to asset that their renting/owning profiles must be different. For them to be the same more than 60% of migrants would need to become homeowners within their first year in the uk. IF you actually believe that then whats the problem houses are so cheap migrants are buying within a year!! :rotfl::rotfl:

Of course the reality is that migrants rent far more than the locals do and own far less than the locals do. The 4-5 million increase in migrants has been a primary driver of increasing renting in the uk

Windofchange

GreatApe wrote: »

your link says the A8 men earn on average £9.33 an hour compared to uk born at £15.33 an hour. and it says nothing about their ownership vs renting levels

It is quite easy to asset that their renting/owning profiles must be different. For them to be the same more than 60% of migrants would need to become homeowners within their first year in the uk. IF you actually believe that then whats the problem houses are so cheap migrants are buying within a year!! :rotfl::rotfl:

Of course the reality is that migrants rent far more than the locals do and own far less than the locals do. The 4-5 million increase in migrants has been a primary driver of increasing renting in the uk

"For example in 2015 the real hourly wages for female UK-born and foreign-born were £12.4 and £12.5 respectively, while those for the male UK-born and foreign-born were respectively £15.3 and £14.8."

As per usual you have cherry picked a figure to suit your argument.

You stated above that:

GreatApe wrote: »

its primarily to do with the 4-5 million additional migrants over the last 10 years. They predominantly rent or at lest have a vastly different profile from the natives

Given that as a group of people, immigrants earn pretty much to the penny what UK nationals do, what is your argument? I might as well compare a French banker living in London on £3 million a year with a UK school leaver cleaning toilets. It's basically what you have done.

If migrants and UK nationals earn roughly the same, how is falling home ownership to do with that?

GreatApe

Windofchange wrote: »

Except you're not right of course

I mostly am, here you go census data ONS

Nearly three-quarters (73%) of recent arrivals lived in private rented accommodation, much higher than the average for the UK-born population (15%). Conversely, the proportion of recent arrivals living in owner occupied accommodation (18%) or social housing (8.7%) were lower than the UK-born population (69% and 16% respectively).


So in 2011 the case was that 73% rented, and 18% lived in owner ocupied properties. However I would say the true picture is even worse than this as some portion of those living in owner occupied properties will be living in properties not owned by them but by a family member or friend so they are not owners in the true sense of the word they are just living in the spare bedroom of someone who is helping them. Anyway even ignoring that we can do some mathematics

Looking at the data for just polish people, those who have been in the country for 0-5 years are over 80% private renters 10% owners, polish people here for 5-10 years are over 70% private renters. and almost 20% owners (reading off the graph)

Some 600,000 have arrived over the last decade so if we take the mid point as 75% of them are in private renting and 15% own.

That means the polish who arrived over the last decade alone have moved the needle about 0.75% from owning to renting. And the polish are not the only group of mass migrants over the last decade

https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/populationandmigration/internationalmigration/articles/2011censusanalysissocialandeconomiccharacteristicsbylengthofresidenceofmigrantpopulationsinenglandandwales/2014-11-04


Its a good read, in 2011 the UK born population ownership rate was just a tad shy of 70% and about 15% rented privately while non uk born only owned about 45% and almost 40% rented privately

So there you go lets see if you accept it

Come 2021 cencus I suspect we will clearly see the UK born ownership rate is not all that bad

Mr.Generous

Some truth in the posts, .... when I were a lad ... honestly.... nobody had a new car, you got a cheap used car and saved for a property. Smart phones weren't around, so forget that bill. Tattoos were something wrinkled old sailors had, no money wasted there. Eating out was for special occasions, the pub meal was only just taking off. My first car cost £1000. Before that I had a motorbike for something like £300. Buying a coffee somewhere never happened, it is a luxury really, you can make it at home for a fraction of the price.

When my eldest wanted a house I offered £10k towards a deposit. When she enthusiastically told me she had seen a house they wanted I asked what they had saved up. Not a lot. I revised my offer - I'll match your savings up to £10k, they saved it in 12 months. Incentive? It worked.