First time buyer - wait out Brexit?

Crashy_Time

AdrianC wrote: »

The domain name was registered in October 2003, so "only" 14 years ago. But that doesn't mean that the sentiments weren't about for several years before that, of course, merely that there wasn't the opportunity to whip each other into a mutual-feedback frenzy over them.

Meanwhile...
In January 2005, the average house price in the UK was shrapnel over £150k.
By September 2007, and the pre-crisis peak, it had risen to £190k.
At the depth of the crisis, March 2009, it had fallen back to... £154k. Yes, still higher than when housepricecrash.co.uk was registered, less than six years before.
Today, it's over £217k.

I make that 30% more than the depth of the crisis, and 14% more than the peak beforehand.
As an average annual growth, that's only 3.75% from the depth, or 1.4% from the peak. Compared to 2005, it's 3.66%.

So since the depth of the crisis, the average growth has been roughly the same as the total period since 2005. Not much more than inflation.

Makes your much-beloved crisis look like a short-term wobble, doesn't it?

Oh, and btw - the figures are from http://landregistry.data.gov.uk/app/ukhpi/explore

Doesn`t mean much if you can`t find a buyer though. The central banks have pulled every trick they know to get that "growth", and to prevent a price correction, but their strategy is causing more problems than it is worth now, not least the fact that voters are waking up and getting angry.

AdrianC

Crashy_Time wrote: »

Doesn`t mean much if you can`t find a buyer though.

Yeh, the biggest problem with the housing market in the UK is definitely a lack of buyers...

Crashy_Time

Mmmm....maybe not the biggest problem


http://www.cnbc.com/2017/04/13/banks-interest-rate-rises-bundesbank-germany-ecb.html

juniordoc

I do think that numbers of buyers will dwindle once rates start to go up, and there will be less and less access to 95% LTV mortgages.
Wage growth is stagnating and about to fall in real terms once you factor in inflation.
Potential buyers can only become buyers of that can save a deposit and access a mortgage, both of these things are going to become more difficult over the next 1-2 years.

Crashy_Time

MEM62 wrote: »

I doubt that BTL properties would ever represent much more of a percentage of overall market than they currently do. The tax changes mainly impact those that are 40% tax payers and have a sizeable mortgage on the property.

Still can't see why the OP is hesitating. Firstly, he is holding on for some assurance in a situation that is unpredictable and therefore not going to be able to offer that assurance in the foreseeable future. If you want certainty on post-Brexit Britain then you will have to wait for a lot longer than two years. First as we will have to actually get to an exit position and then wait another few years for the dust to settle before we know what it has done to the economy. There is also the fact that more than one impact can be expected, in addition to house prices there is also the impact on wages, interest rates, the cost of living etc etc etc.

The degree of comfort that the OP seems to want before he will commit to his house purchase is unrealistic. Property is usually a good long term bet and should actually be considered in times of uncertainty, not avoided.

The tax changes may push some landlords INTO the higher bracket, and Nothing Down/ Highly Leveraged was the way many (most?) got into BTL (it works as long as the bubble keeps inflating) Every street has BTL property in it nowadays, so it wouldn`t take much of a sell of to get prices tumbling IMO.