First time buyer - wait out Brexit?

MEM62

Crashy_Time wrote: »

People going home due to Brexit and tax changes for landlords could mean a LOT of BTL property hitting the market all at the same time, meaning prices will take a hit.


https://audioboom.com/posts/5793636-sell-up-hold-or-expand

I doubt that BTL properties would ever represent much more of a percentage of overall market than they currently do. The tax changes mainly impact those that are 40% tax payers and have a sizeable mortgage on the property.

Still can't see why the OP is hesitating. Firstly, he is holding on for some assurance in a situation that is unpredictable and therefore not going to be able to offer that assurance in the foreseeable future. If you want certainty on post-Brexit Britain then you will have to wait for a lot longer than two years. First as we will have to actually get to an exit position and then wait another few years for the dust to settle before we know what it has done to the economy. There is also the fact that more than one impact can be expected, in addition to house prices there is also the impact on wages, interest rates, the cost of living etc etc etc.

The degree of comfort that the OP seems to want before he will commit to his house purchase is unrealistic. Property is usually a good long term bet and should actually be considered in times of uncertainty, not avoided.

Hoploz

OP you're over thinking it. You and your wife want to buy a home, so buy one.

cashbackproblems

I had the same dilemma recently and I did buy but only because I found the kind of place I have been searching for and at a good price. There have been some doubts as recently I have seen prices following in my target areas!


I would keep an eye on the market, what things are selling for, how quick they are selling etc then buy based on that. Market data has been quite negative recently and I don't expect prices to rise much over the coming years so by waiting you should lose out too much.

AndyTails

ScorpiondeRooftrouser wrote: »

But IF the market crashes (BIG if) then by waiting a year essentially he gets a much better house for the rest of his life. However the market fluctuates afterwards, all that matters is the point at which you get in. Get in now and maybe he can afford a two bed semi. Wait a year and he might be able to buy a 4 bed detached house, or a one bed flat, depending on the market. All the houses he lives in for the rest of his life will be based on the value of the one he first buys.

If in a year he can afford a 4 bed detached, then what about all the people who can afford a 4 bed detached now? Can they suddenly afford a 6 bed detached? Well, there aren't anywhere near as many 6 bed detached houses as there are 4 beds. And what about the people who can afford a 6 bed detached now, will they be able to afford an 8 bed mansion? There are very few of those around!


House prices are heavily correlated with affordability. If £250k buys you a 2 bed semi now or a 4 bed detached in a year's time, that's because fewer people can still raise £250k. So if the OP can afford £250k now, in the theoretical year's time he'd probably only be able to raise £100k.

Tiners

Since around the year 2000 we've had two distinct phases of rampant house price inflation that have been far above any previous rates of price growth in the property market and resulted in wildly distorted prices compared to earnings.

2000-2007 we had rampant HPI due to irresponsible, reckless and often even outright fraudulent lending practices from the banks

2008-2017 we've had further rampant HPI due to huge scale intervention from the government and the BoE to initially prop up the property market then to inflate the bubble further still

Putting aside the actual issue of Brexit you perhaps need to ask yourself can you see further irresponsible/fraudulent lending practices by the banks or further state interference aimed at inflating the bubble even more... or will it be allowed to start operating like a free market with natural up and down cycles allowed to play out?

AnotherJoe

To "Wait out Brexit" you'd 3 or 4 years, not months. !!

Months will be meaningless as a pointer to what will happen,and indeed its likely there will be transitional arrangements, so add a couple more years on before fully extricated.

So, you are looking about 6-7 years down the road from now to judge the effect of Brexit, which of course is only one of many influences on house prices anyway. And then, as another poster put it, there will be all sorts of other uncertainties going on then, because there are always uncertainties.

So unless you see yourself renting for the next 7 years (which to be fair will be cheaper as you will likely be in a bedsit as you wont have a wife by then) stop being a wuss and get on with it.

cashbackproblems

AnotherJoe wrote: »

To "Wait out Brexit" you'd 3 or 4 years, not months. !!

Months will be meaningless as a pointer to what will happen,and indeed its likely there will be transitional arrangements, so add a couple more years on before fully extricated.

So, you are looking about 6-7 years down the road from now to judge the effect of Brexit, which of course is only one of many influences on house prices anyway. And then, as another poster put it, there will be all sorts of other uncertainties going on then, because there are always uncertainties.

So unless you see yourself renting for the next 7 years (which to be fair will be cheaper as you will likely be in a bedsit as you wont have a wife by then) stop being a wuss and get on with it.

but if property prices fall then it wont happen in 3 years time it will slowly start to happen now, that's what you have to judge


I don't think you should rush unless you find the right place, I spent 2 years looking

freeman3030

I would buy now if you can afford it. Historically house prices have increased so why throw money at renting a property when you could be paying a mortgage. Try as hard as you can to over pay your mortgage to bring your LTV down. Get your foot on that ladder and start climbing!

jeanzbeanz

We were told to expect a massive drop in house prices due to the uncertainty leading up to/ after the referendum. That didn't materialise. Then we were told it would happen when Article 50 was triggered. That doesn't seem to have happened either. If anything, the market is a bit less busy, but it doesn't seem to have affected house prices as demand is still proportionately high to supply.

I'd say stop wasting money on rent, and find somewhere you love - but make sure you will still be able to afford the mortgage repayments if interest rates rise back to where they were!

I think house prices will continue to rise - there must be 1000s of people like OP who are nervously waiting to see what happens, and once the Brexit saga is over the market will become much busier...
In the grand scheme of things I honestly think that we will find Brexit makes very little difference to the housing market. (and to the economy overall, for that matter.)

Planet_Switzerland

As someone who waited several years to buy, I'd say if you can afford a property then buy a property.


I posted my journey on another thread a few days ago so won't do that again, but basically in 2012 I had a 15% deposit and didn't buy, in 2016 I had a 35% deposit and did buy but have borrowed more than I would have in 2012.