Are the Markets Too High to Invest?

jimjames

smjxm09 wrote: »

Who said anything about overnight?

You seem to have very short term memory loss

smjxm09 wrote: »

That's a very good question. I guess the issue is that a stock market that is at record highs and a pound that is at 30 year lows the bubble will eventually burst.

Over 10 to 20 years shares seem to be the way to go but if you lose say 30% overnight will you be brave enough to ride out the storm?

jimjames

BLB53 wrote: »

Of course, the markets could continue to rise but I am not greedy and content to sit out the rest of the bull run which has been playing out (with a few blips) since 2009.

Didn't the last bull run go from 1980 to 2000? So you could be out of the market for 12 years waiting?
I'm investing for my pension, I have no interest in holding cash (literally!) instead of investing every month

unitedwestand

Best expression I've learn't from is that.... It's about time in the markets, not timing the markets

The ftse 100 was deemed to be 'high' in 1999, then in 2007 and now its higher than still. History shows that sensibly invested "active" money over a decent period of time will always outperform dormant cash on account.

jimjames

unitedwestand wrote: »

The ftse 100 was deemed to be 'high' in 1999, then in 2007 and now its higher than still. History shows that sensibly invested "active" money over a decent period of time will always outperform dormant cash on account.

The thing that is also generally forgotten by those quoting FTSE levels in 1999 as a reason not to invest is that dividends are also paid out. Currently just under 4% so even if the market does nothing or drops, you are still getting a return way above cash interest rates.

OldMusicGuy

bowlhead99 wrote: »

Any week could be a reasonable week to call the beginning of a huge decline, through which people who were not vested in your personal financial situation would say "keep holding the index, you can't lose with the index, the smart money knows the index always makes money". Beware of such people and only take on risk and volatility that you can stomach.

Another great post from Bowlhead. The above quote is key. You must know your own risk profile and your investing objectives before following very simplistic advice you find on internet forums.

unitedwestand

jimjames wrote: »

The thing that is also generally forgotten by those quoting FTSE levels in 1999 as a reason not to invest is that dividends are also paid out. Currently just under 4% so even if the market does nothing or drops, you are still getting a return way above cash interest rates.

Yip...if the stocks pay/ continue to pay a dividend. Personally I always look at dividends as a bonus not a given, but appreciate many do.

Thrugelmir

unitedwestand wrote: »

Personally I always look at dividends as a bonus not a given, but appreciate many do.

Without reinvesting dividends you would have been disappointed with returns since the turn of the millennium in some markets.

BLB53

Didn't the last bull run go from 1980 to 2000?

I seem to recall a bit of a blip in '87!

unitedwestand

Thrugelmir wrote: »

Without reinvesting dividends you would have been disappointed with returns since the turn of the millennium in some markets.

Again, I don't assume returns are guaranteed either. I invest wisely but don't expect them.

Broadly, I see the markets as a decent diversified hedge against hard cash, fiat money supply manipulation and property speculation first... returns and dividends a bonus.

jimjames

BLB53 wrote: »

I seem to recall a bit of a blip in '87!

The year still ended higher than it started! Yes there was a pretty sharp crash but also a fairly quick recovery and the bull market carried on. Recollection can be a strange thing!