There won't be a crash

westernpromise

There is a remarkably commonly-held view that house prices should be reduced to some fraction of their current level and that no other consequence would flow from this. We would all wake up one day with prices down 30% and life would otherwise be as before.

It took a devastating recession to accomplish this in the past, so crashtrolls presumably want a recession, in which they would stand a very high chance of losing their own job.

Rich2808

westernpromise wrote: »

There is a remarkably commonly-held view that house prices should be reduced to some fraction of their current level and that no other consequence would flow from this. We would all wake up one day with prices down 30% and life would otherwise be as before.

It took a devastating recession to accomplish this in the past, so crashtrolls presumably want a recession, in which they would stand a very high chance of losing their own job.

It was only thanks to such a scenario from 1989 to about 1994 that allowed so many people to buy property at all - and have done so well since. The world carried on, most people kept their jobs and housing was affordable even for those on average incomes.

Home ownership levels are falling year on year - and that may have big implications in the medium term.

GreatApe

Rich2808 wrote: »

It was only thanks to such a scenario from 1989 to about 1994 that allowed so many people to buy property at all - and have done so well since. The world carried on, most people kept their jobs and housing was affordable even for those on average incomes.

A large part of the reason why homes were much cheaper in the past was that the social sector overbuilt too many social homes. This resulted in nearly 1/3rd of all homes being social at one point far too high a figure. In some parts of the country whole areas were over 50% social and I am not talking streets or blocks but whole councils.

Home ownership levels are falling year on year - and that may have big implications in the medium term.

The nominal number is close to all time peak levels. Percentage wise its fallen but that is expected as 3-4 million EU migrants over the decade need somewhere to live/rent they cant buy the moment they step foot in the country

Windofchange

It's not a case of wanting or wishing for bad times, it is simply acknowledging that nigh on two decades of boom will not go without some pain on the other side. It tried to correct ten years ago but was stopped with world wide state intervention. That can hasn't disappeared, it has merely been kicked down the road to who knows when.

For the prices will go up supporters on here, is there anything that worries you about the current state of housing / the economy, or is just simply they will go up, end of story?

GreatApe

Windofchange wrote: »

It's not a case of wanting or wishing for bad times, it is simply acknowledging that nigh on two decades of boom will not go without some pain on the other side. It tried to correct ten years ago but was stopped with world wide state intervention. That can hasn't disappeared, it has merely been kicked down the road to who knows when.

we do not have 1 uk housing market we have at least a dozen regional markets of which most are very affordable and arguably cheap

So make it clear when you talk of this bubble that you are talking about a London boom that you see/want to turn into a London bust

For the prices will go up supporters on here, is there anything that worries you about the current state of housing / the economy, or is just simply they will go up, end of story?

London prices definitely wont go up like they have done for the last 20 years one of the main reasons is that London property is now taxed more than it ever has and London property IHT is also becoming a drag too.

So long as we do not see a UK recession the I think the medium term trend is up but more slowly than the last 10-20 years. Overall London GDP should still outpace rUK since all the growth industries seem to be in London everything from tourism to tech from film to finance from music to media. Meanwhile stoke on trent waits for the reemergence of pottery and coal

BobQ

Conrad wrote: »

I was aghast yesterday afternoon to find the development I've been waiting ages for had a queue of people camped outside it ready for today's launch. I came home in right old tiss, and almost camped overnight there myself as only 28 properties being launched in this phase, but I could not face an overnight on a dark wet bridge. We live an hour away.

Eventually decided to go there this morning and joined the even longer queue, very disheartened.

Cut a long story short we were issued numbers 4 hours later then spent 3 hours in a cramped marquee waiting to be called to the sales office.

All the while as each number was called, sold stickers were applied to one property after another. We were pretty disgruntled early on as we and the other 200 people there soon realised most of us would lose out. The sense of dread and of it being a total waste of time and stress was palapable. Some people were highly agitated.

By a stroke of luck we just got the very one we'd wanted for weeks, but just after our slot everyone else was turned away empty handed.

And note there was no show property to see and very limited information.

It turned out some folk had been camped there two days and nights.

A big worry was that an investor might reserve several but luckily not.

Crazy market

Obviously they sold the properties below the market value, are you sure that the place is not riddled with Japanese Knotweed?

Or maybe the queue of buyers were hired to persuade genuine buyers like you that you had better not bargain too much.

BobQ

Jack_Johnson_the_acorn wrote: »

If people haven't figured out by now that increasing interest rates would be economic suicide for Britain then they'll never understand. There won't be significant interest rate rises as everyone would suffer not just people with a mortgage.

Depends what you mean by suffer. Falling house prices will make it easier for those with cash to pick up bargains. People suffer because they have borrowed beyond their means to repay it.

westernpromise

Rich2808 wrote: »

It was only thanks to such a scenario from 1989 to about 1994 that allowed so many people to buy property at all - and have done so well since. The world carried on, most people kept their jobs and housing was affordable even for those on average incomes.

Home ownership levels are falling year on year - and that may have big implications in the medium term.

Home ownership levels also fell between 1989 and 1994. In a falling market renting goes up.

Jack_Johnson_the_acorn

westernpromise wrote: »

Home ownership levels also fell between 1989 and 1994. In a falling market renting goes up.

Exactly only those forced to sell will sell or those with enough equity to move further up the ladder.

davholla

Jack_Johnson_the_acorn wrote: »

I bought my property 5 years ago.


I planned for interest rate upto 10% not knowing in 2011 how much mortgage rates would drop, I would imagine most people in my position have done the same.

I am not sure that it is correct, I have never heard anyone say that they have done that. If people had done that in the past we would never had crashes then.