Indy2, Scottish pound, and house prices

TrickyTree83

GreatApe wrote: »

Scotland will be fine.

Their Scottish pound will tank maybe 33% when independent. The result will be that their oil and whiskey in Scottish pounds is worth 50% more scot££s. That immediately helps the tax and GDP position.

They can also take measures like keeping all the TV licence fees spending in Scotland rather than sending it mostly to London. In fact they can probably purchase BBC content for 1/10th its current price and keep 9/10ths of the TV tax to fill part of the budget holes

Scotland will become poorer just means they will have to reduce their imports of goods and services. Things like buying a £200 smartphone every other year rather than a £700 one. Hardly the end of the world. They will have to work more in Scotland so they produce goods and services they were previously importing but that's hardly a negative more local jobs.

Since fundamentally wealth is productivity why would the Scots have a terrible time of it why would their service sector be less productive. Is a Scottish nurse or teacher or fireman or doctor or sandwiches maker less capable than an English one?

The makeup of Scotland's trade with rUK is dominated by services, particularly financial, legal, architectural, etc... with the biggest players having their largest market share in the rUK, with some in 2014 openly saying they will need to move their operation to the rUK in order to safeguard their business.

As I said, I agree that devaluation is an option but I disagree that it will not hurt as much as you claim. Scotland requires £billions from somewhere, a large devaluation would achieve this but the imports (including those from rUK!) would become extremely expensive, and as I pointed out in my edit if as the SNP want Scotland re-applies to join the EU they will be using the Euro. So devaluation may only be possible for any period prior to adopting the Euro. Accession to the EU now appears bound to accepting the use of the Euro, whether or not Scotland has enough time between joining and adopting it proper to sort the financial mess out is an unknown, I'd wager no as I believe the current EU penchant for more integration would require adoption of the Euro as a prerequisite and not just a promise to do so.

TLDR They won't be fine. The numbers tell you they won't, it's not just smartphones it's all of the rUK trade, the 64% of all their exports and they import from us something crazy which I forget the number for but that is somehow used as a pro-independence argument? Conveniently forgetting that the massive amount of rUK imports into Scotland will clearly cost them much more than what has happened to the £ in recent memory.

edinburgher

I think this was what I referred to the other day when I referred to this board as an echo chamber for grumpy English sods.

The fact that there is no other anonymous person on the internet who supports independence and takes the time to research and post on this board does not mean that they don't exist!

Your suggested sources of information are appreciated and some of the ones mentioned seem to offer some very detailed commentary, exactly the sort of thing I was looking for. As with the first referendum, I'll need to carry out my own independent research and reach a conclusion accordingly.

I agree that political considerations are perhaps too prevalent in discussions of Scottish independence. That said, we can choose to either write off the fact that millions of Scots feel like their views are not represented or engage with the reasons behind that. I do not feel that the Conservatives have attempted to meet the SNP in the middle to discuss these concerns in any meaningful way.

TrickyTree83

edinburgher wrote: »

I think this was what I referred to the other day when I referred to this board as an echo chamber for grumpy English sods.

The fact that there is no other anonymous person on the internet who supports independence and takes the time to research and post on this board does not mean that they don't exist!

Your suggested sources of information are appreciated and some of the ones mentioned seem to offer some very detailed commentary, exactly the sort of thing I was looking for. As with the first referendum, I'll need to carry out my own independent research and reach a conclusion accordingly.

I agree that political considerations are perhaps too prevalent in discussions of Scottish independence. That said, we can choose to either write off the fact that millions of Scots feel like their views are not represented or engage with the reasons behind that. I do not feel that the Conservatives have attempted to meet the SNP in the middle to discuss these concerns in any meaningful way.

I hope you do go and research the number for yourself. It's what I did and that's how I came to the conclusion on the Scottish economy, Scotland is better off in the union, there's no alternative that is better under the current circumstances.

There may well be an unwillingness to work with the SNP, they're a nationalist party, a divisive party, think a large UKIP contingent in Westminster. They represent only one area of the UK and can never hope to achieve power in Westminster because of that. They are a party of grievance and division who are doing an awful job at running Scotland it seems (policing, education, etc...), but they'll try to blame that on Conservative austerity whilst advocating for independence to lump even more austerity onto the Scottish people(?!). I don't understand why Scots don't vote for a UK wide alternative if Labour and the Conservatives don't float your boat. The Lib Dem's at least have a chance at coalition government, or the Greens.

Shakethedisease is probably your go to poster for pro-independence propaganda, but Hamish is probably the most pragmatic pro-independence supporter from a Scotland perspective. Hamish still thinks there will be a recession in the UK worse than the 2008 financial crash due to Brexit and that the EU single market is worth more to Scotland than the UK market after Brexit. That's the best I can do to point you in the direction of the opposing argument.

GreatApe

TrickyTree83 wrote: »

The makeup of Scotland's trade with rUK is dominated by services, particularly financial, legal, architectural, etc... with the biggest players having their largest market share in the rUK, with some in 2014 openly saying they will need to move their operation to the rUK in order to safeguard their business.

As I said, I agree that devaluation is an option but I disagree that it will not hurt as much as you claim. Scotland requires £billions from somewhere, a large devaluation would achieve this but the imports (including those from rUK!) would become extremely expensive, and as I pointed out in my edit if as the SNP want Scotland re-applies to join the EU they will be using the Euro. So devaluation may only be possible for any period prior to adopting the Euro. Accession to the EU now appears bound to accepting the use of the Euro, whether or not Scotland has enough time between joining and adopting it proper to sort the financial mess out is an unknown, I'd wager no as I believe the current EU penchant for more integration would require adoption of the Euro as a prerequisite and not just a promise to do so.

TLDR They won't be fine. The numbers tell you they won't, it's not just smartphones it's all of the rUK trade, the 64% of all their exports and they import from us something crazy which I forget the number for but that is somehow used as a pro-independence argument? Conveniently forgetting that the massive amount of rUK imports into Scotland will clearly cost them much more than what has happened to the £ in recent memory.

yes their imports will cost more which will be a strong incentive to produce more services locally. Why do they need to hand over £1 billion annually (or whatever it is) in buying TV and media and advertising services. Can Scotland not produce its own naff Graham Nortons or game shows or reality TV and pay their own millions a year to it?

as for joining the Euro there will likely be some time before hand, maybe 5 or 10 years, if i were Scottish I would not be too keen on joining the euro however if they must the key thing will be the rate they join in at. If its too high it will be a disaster if low its not a problem as the economy can adjust with a bit of inflation

Personally I do not think the Scottish will vote for independence, or rather vote for a separate currency they will likely spook at the thought of it.

davomcdave

edinburgher wrote: »

That said, we can choose to either write off the fact that millions of Scots feel like their views are not represented or engage with the reasons behind that. I do not feel that the Conservatives have attempted to meet the SNP in the middle to discuss these concerns in any meaningful way.

More people voted UKIP than voted in Scotland.

Scots may feel that their voice isn't being heard but I think it's fair to say that there is a huge number of people in England whose voice isn't being heard who, if anything, have a greater claim given that the SNP got 50 odd seats and the SNP 1.

The more I look at populism and nationalist grievance and this whole Picketty stuff the more I think that people are looking at extremely rich people on media and thinking they should be able to live like that and then voting in a way that they think might make it happen.

The poor have never been richer across the world both in absolute and relative terms.

edinburgher

I see nothing wrong with a nationalist party if it provides the need for representation that a country feels that none of the alternatives offer.

They may appear to be a party of grievance and division to you, but of course you would feel that way (you appear to be happy with the status quo).

Anyway, enough of the SNP defence, I am not married to them but like all Scots, will support the underdog in a one sided argument!

I have supported the Lib Dems in the past. They went into bed with the Conservatives who took credit for all of their most progressive policies and then ended up as the only mainstream political party on offer.

More people voted UKIP than voted in Scotland.

Scots may feel that their voice isn't being heard but I think it's fair to say that there is a huge number of people in England whose voice isn't being heard who, if anything, have a greater claim given that the SNP got 50 odd seats and the SNP 1.

But surely that's another argument entirely? The fact that a lot of Scots feel under-represented by the mainstream (UK) parties isn't invalidated by the fact that a lot of English feel even more under-represented?

kabayiri

davomcdave wrote: »

...
The big problem that Scotland faces post-Scexit would be the mix of currency and debt. It's a horrible combination because nobody in their right mind would lend to Scotland in its own currency and Scotland, post Scexit, wouldn't initially be generating enough hard currency to service debts. The problem is the same even if Scexit leaves UK with all the debts and leaves debt free.
...

Maybe they need to think a little outside the box.

They could trade the next decade of oil extraction for a bit of short term security on the fiscal markets, for example. Oil prices are indeed depressed but they still carry some value.

They could offer to take all the surplus people that housing boroughs like Hounslow struggle to place too, but for a calculated recompense.

The SE is still going to struggle to find homes for all the legal and illegal migrants who come here without a housing plan. Scotland is not exactly densely populated, quite the opposite really.

If they can get through the early years of independence then it might be okay longer term.

If there were cheap housing bargains up there as a result of Scexit, I'd certainly consider it.

davomcdave

GreatApe wrote: »

yes their imports will cost more which will be a strong incentive to produce more services locally. Why do they need to hand over £1 billion annually (or whatever it is) in buying TV and media and advertising services. Can Scotland not produce its own naff Graham Nortons or game shows or reality TV and pay their own millions a year to it?

Vote independence. Vote Scottish beach holidays and films.

I reckon most Scots would rather watch T2 than Whisky Galore.

TrickyTree83

GreatApe wrote: »

yes their imports will cost more which will be a strong incentive to produce more services locally. Why do they need to hand over £1 billion annually (or whatever it is) in buying TV and media and advertising services. Can Scotland not produce its own naff Graham Nortons or game shows or reality TV and pay their own millions a year to it?

as for joining the Euro there will likely be some time before hand, maybe 5 or 10 years, if i were Scottish I would not be too keen on joining the euro however if they must the key thing will be the rate they join in at. If its too high it will be a disaster if low its not a problem as the economy can adjust with a bit of inflation

Personally I do not think the Scottish will vote for independence, or rather vote for a separate currency they will likely spook at the thought of it.

Regarding the BBC licence fee, ~8% of everything BBC related will be considered Scottish so I guess they'd exchange their ~8% across the UK for 100% in Scotland, plus paying the rUK to top it up since it likely isn't a 1=1 calculation. The licence fee then goes to SBC (??) and is then used to maintain and produce content, after all the SNP will need a mainstream media propaganda arm, I doubt they'd rely on purchasing BBC content as it might not have the right message.

@edinburgher - when you've looked into the SNP claims and found them to be lies time and time again you'll view them with disdain too, most of this I did whilst trying to persuade Shakethedisease that she's wrong about independence. If they were squeaky clean standing up for the working Scot and telling the truth about what an independent Scotland will look like then I wouldn't call them liars and purveyors of grievance and division.

edinburgher

davomcdave wrote: »

Vote independence. Vote Scottish beach holidays and films.

I reckon most Scots would rather watch T2 than Whisky Galore.

Scotland has some absolutely lovely beaches, Barra and parts of Shetland could be somewhere exotic in the South Sea if it wasn't for the bollocking cold.

Also, stop scaremongering, we will still be able to watch Aliens and T2 at Christmas through our own SBC