Indy2, Scottish pound, and house prices

iwilson16

If Scottish independence did actually happen, with its own currency, then do you think that the currency would devalue against the GBP?

My big concerns in an independent Scotland are:

1. Increased austerity and tax rises to account for the deficit
2. A devaluation of the new Scottish Pound (or whatever) against the GBP

I'm not far off retirement (in Edinburgh), and its #2 that really concerns me, as approx half my net-worth is tied up in a flat in Edinburgh.

I'd very seriously consider selling (even at a loss) before Independence happens, and moving south.

so any ideas on what might happen? Or are there too many unknowns to guesstimate at this stage?

Thanks
Ian

michaels

Hmm, capital flight from an independent Scotland, who would have thought it.

Also note that taxation will have to be much higher in iScotland, espcially for higher earners/holders of wealth.

Last one out to turn off the lights?

A_Medium_Size_Jock

iwilson16 wrote: »

so any ideas on what might happen? Or are there too many unknowns to guesstimate at this stage?

Thanks
Ian

You will have to see SNP policies for your answers.
If you can find them - because many, like myself, have looked and either not found any answer at all OR found the given answer to be (at best) so improbable as to be unlikely.

Just two examples being currency and budget, but there are many more.

Until the SNP can satisfactorily provide accurate and complete details of exactly how an independent Scotland could exist, the likelihood is that a vote for an independent Scotland would indeed lead to (at best) a huge recession and devaluation of all existing net worth in Scotland, both on an individual and commercial basis.
I say this purely on the basis that in order to maintain current standards in an independent Scotland, taxes would by necessity be prohibitive.
Either that or every part of expenditure would need to be cut in austerity measures the likes of which have not been seen in recent times.

Given that the SNP have not even said what currency they would use, what do you think the chances of of their providing a complete, detailed and above all accurate plan pre-indyref?
Methinks from past experience that we will be waiting a very long time.

Now, will Scots be gullible enough to fall for this independence carp without having a complete idea of what independence would mean?
After seeing what has happened so far with Brexit?

Hopefully there remain too many Scots who retain their renowned canny intuition.

padington

iwilson16 wrote: »

If Scottish independence did actually happen, with its own currency, then do you think that the currency would devalue against the GBP?

My big concerns in an independent Scotland are:

1. Increased austerity and tax rises to account for the deficit
2. A devaluation of the new Scottish Pound (or whatever) against the GBP

I'm not far off retirement (in Edinburgh), and its #2 that really concerns me, as approx half my net-worth is tied up in a flat in Edinburgh.

I'd very seriously consider selling (even at a loss) before Independence happens, and moving south.

so any ideas on what might happen? Or are there too many unknowns to guesstimate at this stage?

Thanks
Ian

Money is running away already, house prices are down aren't they ?

Imagine what would happen if Scotland remained tied to European taxes and England goes all neo liberal on taxes. Scotland would be dead in the water.

Then add shale revolution pulling down prices of oil even more ..

TrickyTree83

The nationalists up there are absolute nutters.

I saw one mention on facebook today in line with the announcement Jimmy Krankie made that Scotland sends £200bn to Westminster and gets £28bn back. So there's no deficit, there's very little debt too once they get it all back and they can greatly improve their standard of living, driving down taxes, improving the health service, etc... I guess the individual would also support the formation of a task force to hunt down the pots of gold at the end of those rainbows that no one has ever found.

Edit: It genuinely worries me that people can be so incredibly stupid.

edinburgher

I think you'd be better waiting to see what (if anything) pans out.

This forum is an echo chamber for a bunch of cranky English sods who want to moan about Scotland.

Thrugelmir

edinburgher wrote: »

This forum is an echo chamber for a bunch of cranky English sods who want to moan about Scotland.

Speak for yourself. At least there's good honest open debate on here. Not sanitised as it is in the media. Problems are there for all to see. Just as there are in the rUK. There's no quick fixes or solutions.

Thrugelmir

iwilson16 wrote: »

I'm not far off retirement (in Edinburgh), and its #2 that really concerns me, as approx half my net-worth is tied up in a flat in Edinburgh.

Will the UK honour your pension if the SNP start playing financial games in the future? Might find a UKIP party in power that gets elected on an anti Scottish mandate. Using politics to open up divides between people is a dangerous game.

Shaka_Zulu

iwilson16 wrote: »

I'm not far off retirement (in Edinburgh), and its #2 that really concerns me, as approx half my net-worth is tied up in a flat in Edinburgh.

Get a backbone man!

dunstonh

Emotions aside, there does need to be sensible questions asked with sensible answers given. Unlike last time around. Hopefully no project fear from one side and no land of milk and honey from the other.

1 - how Scotland would survive by removing itself from its largest market - the UK. (or what impact what that have on the Scots)
2 - Scotland's financial services industry would not be able to service those in the EU whilst outside of the EU and would not be able to service those in the UK if they rejoin the EU. All scenarios would lead to job relocation.
3 - The previous referendum priced oil at $100. How does funding work using current pricing?
4 - Brexit would see further devolution to Scotland. Rejoining the EU would see giving up those rights to Brussels. Is there an appetite for that.
5 - Would there need to be a hard border?
6 - Would Scotland be a net contributor to the EU coffers? (I believe that is likely from what I have read).

Could Scotland be broken up if parts of Scotland vote to remain in UK. Using Sturgeons own argument against her that people in those regions didnt vote to leave the UK and should not be removed against their will. A shifting of the borders maybe?

A_Medium_Size_Jock

edinburgher wrote: »

I think you'd be better waiting to see what (if anything) pans out.

This forum is an echo chamber for a bunch of cranky English sods who want to moan about Scotland.

I think that if you could be bothered to look, many are Scots.
Myself included.
If you can't tell that, there's no knowing what else you misinterpret.