"Housing Market Slumps"

ukcarper

economic wrote: »

thats not fair to look at the median household income. you need to get rid of the following:
- those who are in london temporary on work visa
- those who have already bought and dont require a large income so work part time or less demanding/paying job
- those who have bought regardless of their income
- those who are happy with renting and dont ever want to own a home

then you are probably are left with people in the market to buy. then you should probably have a median but also include gits/inheritances/other sources of income like investments that may not be included in household income. that will give a true reflection of the current affordability / or "how fair life is" in london.

Why 50% of households have an income of £40k or less and 50% of full time workers earn £34k or less. Just because you know people who earn over £50k it doesn't mean it is common.

To makes things clear I know there are people who can afford to buy at current prices enough to maintain prices but to maintain that property is affordable to the majority is not accurate.

economic

ukcarper wrote: »

Why 50% of households have an income of £40k or less and 50% of full time workers earn £34k or less. Just because you know people who earn over £50k it doesn't mean it is common.

why does it matter? do the above like i said to get the true affordability in london. looking at only wages for the entire population is just a close minded and lazy and non-thoughtful way to do things.

ukcarper

economic wrote: »

why does it matter? do the above like i said to get the true affordability in london. looking at only wages for the entire population is just a close minded and lazy and non-thoughtful way to do things.

It doesn't matter to you that's obvious but it does to the people who can't buy and a lot of other people. You are the close minded person and as long as you are OK you don't care what happens to everybody else.

GreatApe

ukcarper wrote: »

You keep postng that useless spread sheet. Average London terrace £500k with 20% deposit £400k mortgage you would need a combined income of £100k to get that mortgage so what percentage of people can get the mortgage.

that simply means the multiples are holding people back from buying not the price so its a banking regulation problem and I agree so long as 20% deposit is put down 10x income should be ok as far as the regulations are concerned

economic

ukcarper wrote: »

It doesn't matter to you that's obvious but it does to the people who can't buy and a lot of other people. You are the close minded person and as long as you are OK you don't care what happens to everybody else.

please re-read what i written above in my post on who should be excluded. i never excluded people who want to buy. you cant just take the median wage and use that to compare to house prices. you need only include onyl those people in the market to buy a property in the median wage. not only that but a lot of people receive gifts and inheritances. so why only look at wages? until you incorporate all these necessary things you dont get a true reflection of affordability and so then your arguments become meaningless.

as for not caring what happens to anyone else i have no way said i dont care. not saying i care is very different to saying i dont care. besides this is simply just a debate. not a place to feel sorry for people.

economic

but if it really troubles you to find me not caring then here you go:

oh why oh why wont anyone think of the poor young people who only started to work and are in their 20s and single but can not afford to buy a decent sized home in a decent area in London????

GreatApe

ukcarper wrote: »

It doesn't matter to you that's obvious but it does to the people who can't buy and a lot of other people. You are the close minded person and as long as you are OK you don't care what happens to everybody else.

you mistake people explaining why things are the way they are for not caring. Why do you mix the two issues up?

you actually agree that London is affordable for those that are buying, the only real argument you are making is not that London is not affordable but that you would very much like London to be much more affordable to many poorer people.

How do you actually go about doing that. The answer....oh well lower prices....is not an answer. The reality of the result of what you want is 1: far fewer people to leave London and 2: far more people to come to London.

Now I can not accurately guess the numbers but lets try an estimate. Currently 200,000 people arrive in London each year and 100,000 leave to give a net +100,000. Your policy might cut the leavers in half and add 50% to the arrivers so we go from +100k net to +250k net

The real question thus becomes not.....oh why oh why wont house prices crash so nurses can buy two for ha penny.....to.....how do we build 100,000 homes per year in London so London can grow at +250,000 persons per year and thus the poorer can buy homes on single incomes in London

You dont have a solution to this, you dont even know that this is the problem you are trying to solve.

ukcarper

economic wrote: »

please re-read what i written above in my post on who should be excluded. i never excluded people who want to buy. you cant just take the median wage and use that to compare to house prices. you need only include onyl those people in the market to buy a property in the median wage. not only that but a lot of people receive gifts and inheritances. so why only look at wages? until you incorporate all these necessary things you dont get a true reflection of affordability and so then your arguments become meaningless.

as for not caring what happens to anyone else i have no way said i dont care. not saying i care is very different to saying i dont care. besides this is simply just a debate. not a place to feel sorry for people.

No you have to include people not in the market who would like to be. 50% of full time workers could only get a mortgage of £140k so have no chance of buying. Property is always affordable for the people who can buy them but that is a very different thing to saying property is generally affordable.

Feeling sorry for someone who can't afford to buy is not the same as thinking that it is far from ideal that lrage majority of working people can't afford to buy.

GreatApe

London prices need to be expensive to moderate population growth. If London homes cost the same as Birmingham homes London would be growing at +300,000 a year rather than +100,000 a year

So people who want a house price crash or want lower paid workers to buy with single incomes need to figure out a way to allow +300,000 population growth ideally with also a decreasing persons per home rate. You are probably looking at needing +150,000 new builds per year in London for London to be truly cheap like the other 8 cheap regions of the uk

So Mr Wind or Mr Carper how do you propose increasing London new builds from about 25k units a year to over 100k units a year in a sustained and long term way? How likely are you to achieve your ideas?

London will always be the most expensive region in England for obvious reasons

ukcarper

GreatApe wrote: »

you mistake people explaining why things are the way they are for not caring. Why do you mix the two issues up?

you actually agree that London is affordable for those that are buying, the only real argument you are making is not that London is not affordable but that you would very much like London to be much more affordable to many poorer people.

How do you actually go about doing that. The answer....oh well lower prices....is not an answer. The reality of the result of what you want is 1: far fewer people to leave London and 2: far more people to come to London.

Now I can not accurately guess the numbers but lets try an estimate. Currently 200,000 people arrive in London each year and 100,000 leave to give a net +100,000. Your policy might cut the leavers in half and add 50% to the arrivers so we go from +100k net to +250k net

The real question thus becomes not.....oh why oh why wont house prices crash so nurses can buy two for ha penny.....to.....how do we build 100,000 homes per year in London so London can grow at +250,000 persons per year and thus the poorer can buy homes on single incomes in London

You dont have a solution to this, you dont even know that this is the problem you are trying to solve.

I don't have a solution but that doesn't mean there isn't a problem which in London and large parts of the south east there obviously is.