The finances of an Independent Scotland.

TrickyTree83

beecher2 wrote: »

I prefer this post by TrickyTree83, he really does tie himself up in knots sometimes.

That's my personal belief yes.

You guys want to believe the SNP and their economists that you're going to lose 80,000 jobs. So why are you not listening to the other economists who say you're going to lose 1,000,000 on becoming independent?

Either they're wrong about Brexit and independence, in which case there's no need for any of this, or they're right and you still shouldn't be independent. Take your choice.

Nice try you pair. I've only ever been exposing the irony and conflicted positions of the Scottish nationalists. If you're going to use economists predictions to vilify Brexit, you have to accept that economists also tell you that independence is a disaster.

beecher2

TrickyTree83 wrote: »

Did you read it? You must have ignored Table 3 then.

Sorry Tricky, it doesn't say that. Brian Ashcroft has made a further calculation which he describes as a 'fag packet calculation', stating that:

Fag packet calculation: one quarter to one half of jobs in companies that wholly or mainly serve the UK market will literally go south over the next five years. Assuming 400 000 jobs are at risk, this would add between 4% and 7% to Scotland's unemployment figures, taking us back to the level of unemployment we saw in the eighties.

Lots of assumptions, nothing which I would describe as 'facts' though and certainly nothing saying 1 million jobs will go.

TrickyTree83

beecher2 wrote: »

Sorry Tricky, it doesn't say that. Brian Ashcroft has made a further calculation which he describes as a 'fag packet calculation', stating that:



Lots of assumptions, nothing which I would describe as 'facts' though and certainly nothing saying 1 million jobs will go.

Deary me.

The quote you gave, is from a comment from someone who read what he wrote. Did you scan read it to try to debunk it? :rotfl:

Fag packet calculation: one quarter to one half of jobs in companies that wholly or mainly serve the UK market will literally go south over the next five years. Assuming 400 000 jobs are at risk, this would add between 4% and 7% to Scotland's unemployment figures, taking us back to the level of unemployment we saw in the eighties.

Posted by: FF | 20 June 2014 at 05:59 PM

What about reading this bit, which actually is part of his piece and not a comment on it.



Come on, nail your colours to the mast! If you're going to take economists predictions for Brexit at face value why are you not taking their predictions for an independent Scotland at face value?

If you think it's fine for the SNP to go around pontificating that Brexit is the most damaging risk to the Scottish economy on the basis of 80,000 job losses predicted by economists, then why are you not calling them out as liars when economists are also saying ~1,000,000 jobs are at risk from independence?

I'm calling them out as liars. I don't necessarily believe in economists predictions, but clearly they do, and clearly they're lying about the biggest risk according to the economists.

beecher2

Hands up, apolgies and lesson learned that I have to wear reading glasses all the time, vanity be damned.

However, Brian Ashcroft is not saying that 1 million people will be unemployed, even Better Together felt using the term 'at risk' was apocalyptic enough. No-one would ever argue that it is a fact that Asda Tesco etc will leave Scotland.

wotsthat

TrickyTree83 wrote: »

You're trying to portray my position as conflicted, it's not. I'm just using their own tools against them. If Brexit is terrible and is the worst thing to happen to the Scottish economy - because economists say so - then it's perfectly acceptable to use economists to show that Scotland will lose substantially more jobs as a result of independence, since that's who they believe in. The irony isn't in my pitch, it's in their position by claiming the economists are correct about Brexit, but not about Scottish independence.

If as I believe Brexit will actually be a benefit to the UK economy then Scotland would indeed be better off remaining where it is. If my belief is wrong and Brexit is as bad as the economists predict it to be, then Scotland is still better off remaining within the UK.

Or are they only correct when you agree with them?

You're not using their own tools against them. You can't fight BS with BS - you just end up swimming in it with them.

The economists saying independence will lead to a Scotland of milk and honey are just as likely to be wrong as those suggesting an increase in unemployment of 1m.

TrickyTree83

wotsthat wrote: »

You're not using their own tools against them. You can't fight BS with BS - you just end up swimming in it with them.

The economists saying independence will lead to a Scotland of milk and honey are just as likely to be wrong as those suggesting an increase in unemployment of 1m.

See

http://forums.moneysavingexpert.com/showpost.php?p=72104917&postcount=124

TrickyTree83

beecher2 wrote: »

Hands up, apolgies and lesson learned that I have to wear reading glasses all the time, vanity be damned.

However, Brian Ashcroft is not saying that 1 million people will be unemployed, even Better Together felt using the term 'at risk' was apocalyptic enough. No-one would ever argue that it is a fact that Asda Tesco etc will leave Scotland.

Did I say unemployed?

I don't believe I did, if I did I misspoke/typed since the majority of my posts say "risk ~1,000,000" on this topic.

wotsthat

TrickyTree83 wrote: »

See

http://forums.moneysavingexpert.com/showpost.php?p=72104917&postcount=124

Quite. You've proven people tend to believe economists who are saying what they want to hear. I think we know that already.

As you say it's so very difficult to know the future so I'm a bit suspicious when you simultaneously argue you have a better idea than others.

TrickyTree83

wotsthat wrote: »

Quite. You've proven people tend to believe economists who are saying what they want to hear. I think we know that already.

As you say it's so very difficult to know the future so I'm a bit suspicious when you simultaneously argue you have a better idea than others.

I'm not arguing that I have a better idea, just that if you're going to trust economists as a reason to argue FOR independence, you cannot simultaneously ignore the economists who tell you that independence will be a disaster simply because you disagree with them.

You can see what Nicola Sturgeon and her cronies say in Holyrood to get an idea of how much they refer back to the economists predictions, of course we all know why they would ignore something that outs them as liars.

Herzlos

I assume you're also not factoring in the number of jobs that may move north of the wall, if Scotland has better links to the EU than rUK does?

No-one believes your 1,000,000 jobs at risk figure, because it's clearly nonsense; you're trying to imply that about 40% of Scottish jobs are going to be "at risk", whatever that means since you've said it's not the same as "lost".
There's nearly 962,000 jobs (if I'm reading the table correctly) that involve a rUK HQ somewhere, and there's no reason to believe that there would be a mass exodus out of Scotland for most of those jobs. Most of the HQ jobs are already in rUK.

Some might split into Scotland/rUK companies, most will largely continue as-is.