The finances of an Independent Scotland.

beecher2

TrickyTree83 wrote: »

But will completely omit that approx. 1,000,000 Scottish jobs rely on the union of the UK.
t.

goodness, we have 2.6 million people in the Scottish workforce at the moment. Are you really saying that 40% of them will lose their jobs if we become independent? That would surely take the breath away of even the most ardent No campaigner. :rotfl:

Is this another one of your 'facts'?

TrickyTree83

Herzlos wrote: »

But I thought a Brexited England would still have unfettered trade with whoever they want?

Yes, Scotland has very close ties to England, and I'd assume it'll stay that way unless England starts doing something self-destructive and petty.

England?

The UK will look to get a deal. A deal which will only impact 11% of Scotland's trade. So if 50% of UK trade with the EU suffers and it's proportionally relevant to Scotland then 5.5% of Scottish trade would be lost. In the same scenario if there was an independent Scotland and the same proportion was at risk that would represent 32% of Scottish trade.

If there is no deal between the UK and the EU, then in the event of indy2 Scottish people would have a choice between protecting 11% of trade or 64% of trade. Between ~80,000 jobs at risk or ~1,000,000 jobs at risk

There literally is no way to spin this, there's no whataboutery that you or the indy support can use to make this look any better than it is in reality.

They're liars, plain and simple. Their prime motivation, and it seems that too of the SNP now as evident from FMQ's, behind independence is hating the Conservatives. So it's a left wing ideological stance against what I would term the centre-right. And ironically the left wing stance that wants to promote socialism (which requires a healthy economy) will destroy their own economy if they achieve their aim of independence. Helping, no one.

They (the SNP and pro-independence supporters) are charlatans of the highest order.

TrickyTree83

beecher2 wrote: »

goodness, we have 2.6 million people in the Scottish workforce at the moment. Are you really saying that 40% of them will lose their jobs if we become independent? That would surely take the breath away of even the most ardent No campaigner. :rotfl:

Is this another one of your 'facts'?

It's from a research paper written by an economist. I posted the link in the Fat Scotland thread, I assume you didn't read it?

I suppose you also didn't read about the economic impact of a non-tariff border between Scotland and rUK either? Another research paper based on research done by Yale in the US and applied to the situation in Scotland. A 5.5% drop in GDP just by becoming independent :T

You can 'rofl' and mock but the only people worthy of derision here are the misinformed/uninformed supporters who cling staunchly to the idea of independence in the face of the evidence of what is to come by achieving it.

beecher2

TrickyTree83 wrote: »

It's from a research paper written by an economist. I posted the link in the Fat Scotland thread, I assume you didn't read it?

I suppose you also didn't read about the economic impact of a non-tariff border between Scotland and rUK either? Another research paper based on research done by Yale in the US and applied to the situation in Scotland. A 5.5% drop in GDP just by becoming independent :T

You can 'rofl' and mock but the only people worthy of derision here are the misinformed/uninformed supporters who cling staunchly to the idea of independence in the face of the evidence of what is to come by achieving it.

No I haven't seen any evidence that 1 million people's jobs will go if Scotland become independent. Please post the link.

I take it you do think that this is a proven 'fact' and that forecasts by economists are always 'true'. Do you think they are able to see into the future?

wotsthat

TrickyTree83 wrote: »

It's from a research paper written by an economist. I posted the link in the Fat Scotland thread, I assume you didn't read it?

I suppose you also didn't read about the economic impact of a non-tariff border between Scotland and rUK either? Another research paper based on research done by Yale in the US and applied to the situation in Scotland. A 5.5% drop in GDP just by becoming independent :T

After all the stuff you've said about economists! I'm just glad you enjoy irony as much as me. Just a very small taster.

TrickyTree83 wrote: »

There's a lot of hubris in the area of economics. None of them will openly tell you that it's a flawed science. ......

...I can forgive economists for not being able to predict the future when the future is so complex and fast moving. But I cannot forgive them for speaking out about the ramifications of choices when it's clear they're unable to make those predictions with any reasonable degree of certainty.

1m unemployed due to Scotland leaving the Union out of 2.6m in the workforce - that doesn't pass the most basic of sniff tests.

As Conrad would tell you - those making the most strident predictions are those who are most likely to be wrong. He also shares our love of irony.

TrickyTree83

beecher2 wrote: »

No I haven't seen any evidence that 1 million people's jobs will go if Scotland become independent. Please post the link.

I take it you do think that this is a proven 'fact' and that forecasts by economists are always 'true'. Do you think they are able to see into the future?

https://forums.moneysavingexpert.com/discussion/comment/71669356#Comment_71669356

Show me any evidence, any, literally anything, that says that Scotland would lose less jobs by becoming independent. Anything.

beecher2

I prefer this post by TrickyTree83, he really does tie himself up in knots sometimes.

Economics and Physics are apples and oranges, you can make a prediction based on the laws of Physics and expect to be accurate, if you're not, clearly there's something you've overlooked and you can revise and learn, part of the scientific method. With economics you simply cannot do this for economic predictions.

Current economic forecasts make assumptions about who is in political power, the policies they undertake, economic and otherwise. If Putin decided to invade Latvia tomorrow do you think that would be included in the economic forecasts related to Latvia and the knock-on effect of increased military spending in Europe? Do they have indices for such events? I think that's unlikely since you're asking them to predict world events and their impact. It's an impossible task I agree, and so weight shouldn't be given to their work in the same way it currently is.

At best economic forecasts should be treated in the same way as the weather in this country. If the weather person says it's going to rain, take a brolly. If it doesn't rain you've lost nothing and if it does you're prepared

beecher2

TrickyTree83 wrote: »

https://forums.moneysavingexpert.com/discussion/comment/71669356#Comment_71669356

Show me any evidence, any, literally anything, that says that Scotland would lose less jobs by becoming independent. Anything.

Nowhere on that link does it say that 1 million people will become unemployed after independence.

According to you everyone who works for a company based in rUK will lose their jobs? Asda, M&S, Tesco will all just shut up shop the day after independence. And that's one of your facts.

TrickyTree83

wotsthat wrote: »

After all the stuff you've said about economists! I'm just glad you enjoy irony as much as me. Just a very small taster.



1m unemployed due to Scotland leaving the Union out of 2.6m in the workforce - that doesn't pass the most basic of sniff tests.

As Conrad would tell you - those making the most strident predictions are those who are most likely to be wrong. He also shares our love of irony.

You're trying to portray my position as conflicted, it's not. I'm just using their own tools against them. If Brexit is terrible and is the worst thing to happen to the Scottish economy - because economists say so - then it's perfectly acceptable to use economists to show that Scotland will lose substantially more jobs as a result of independence, since that's who they believe in. The irony isn't in my pitch, it's in their position by claiming the economists are correct about Brexit, but not about Scottish independence.

If as I believe Brexit will actually be a benefit to the UK economy then Scotland would indeed be better off remaining where it is. If my belief is wrong and Brexit is as bad as the economists predict it to be, then Scotland is still better off remaining within the UK.

Or are they only correct when you agree with them?

TrickyTree83

beecher2 wrote: »

Nowhere on that link does it say that 1 million people will become unemployed after independence.

According to you everyone who works for a company based in rUK will lose their jobs? Asda, M&S, Tesco will all just shut up shop the day after independence. And that's one of your facts.

Did you read it? You must have ignored Table 3 then.